Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2025
Journal Name
دراسات سياسية وإستراتيجية
استراتيجية الحكومات العراقية في تحقيق اهداف التنمية المستدامة بعد عام 2003 )القضاء على الفقر:دراسة حالة(
...Show More Authors

التنمية المستدامة حق لكل البشرية وأنها مفهوم ٌ مركب من عنصرين هما التنمية واالستدامة مهمين متالصقين أي ال يوجد تنمية دون استدامة وال العكس يصح، وأنها تمتلك العديد دراسات سياسية وإستراتيجية من األهداف ويبرز هدف الـ)القضاء على الفقر، والقضاء على الجوع( ومن أهم أهدافها، هذه الظاهرة بارزة في المجتمع العراقي بسبب الحروب واالزمات المتكررة فيه وحاالت الحصار االقتصادي، وكذلك بسبب عدم توزيع موارده بشكل عادل من قبل

... Show More
Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Innovation as an Entrance to Sustainable Financing A Case Study of Islamic Banks in the State of Qatar (2014-2018)
...Show More Authors

While the impact of the fourth Industrial Revolution on the economy keeps accelerating, the signs of the fifth industrial revolution, whose key is innovation and creativity started to evolve. However, the challenge of achieving sustainable development and its goals remains faced by the global organizations; In this situation, Islamic banks are exposed to many challenges among which is the challenge of keeping themselves abreast of the latest developments in the modern technology which in turn is a tool for continuity and competition. On the flip side, to avoid the negative impact that these changes can have such as an increased gap between financial innovations and the requirements of sustainable development. Islamic banks in the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Bayesian methods to estimate the failure probability for electronic systems in case the life time data are not available
...Show More Authors

In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company.  The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system.  This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system.  We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator.  We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after  it checked by the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Institutional Performance Assessment using a model of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) A case study at an organization
...Show More Authors

The study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.

The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing Service Quality using Data Envelopment analysis Case study at the Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank
...Show More Authors

The use of data envelopment analysis method helps to improve the performance of organizations in order to exploit their resources efficiently in order to improve the service quality. represented study a problem in need of the Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank to assess the performance of bank branches, according to the service quality provided, Thus, the importance of the study is to contribute using a scientific and systematic method by applying  the data envelopment analysis method in assessing the service quality provided by the bank branches, The study focused on achieving the goal of determining the efficiency of the  services quality provided by the bank branches manner which reflect the extent of utilization of a

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The research is based on a thesis not discussed: Test the strategy of the General Organization based on the model Wichler and Bakov A case study at the Iraqi Ministry of Interior
...Show More Authors

The study aimed at identifying the strategic gaps in the actual reality of the management of public organizations investigated to determine the strategy used based on the study model. The study relied on the variable of the general organization strategy in its dimensions (the general organization strategy, the organization's political strategy and the defense strategy of the organization) The sample of the study was (General Directorate of Traffic, Civil Status Directorate and Civil Defense Directorate), formations affiliated to the Ministry of the Interior, for the importance of the activity carried out by these public organizations by providing them In order to translate the answers into a quantitative expression in the analysi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Six-Sigma to measure the quality performance of the Department of Statistics-University of Baghdad-Case Study
...Show More Authors

Abstract

            This research was to provide a definition of quality, dimensions and concepts, whether traditional or modern concept, as well as review the dimensions of quality in higher education and vision and mission with the overall objectives of the Statistics Department.

         After reviewing quality goals and purposes achieved as well as the mechanisms used to achieve them. and use standard Six-Sigma as one of the methodologies used in quality with the historical roots of using this methodology and methods applied and their definitions t

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Suggested Model for Using a Students Attendance Management Information Systems/ A Case Study In Lebanese French University/ Erbil
...Show More Authors

This study aims to design unified  electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed  the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of  using papers to count absence,  with  a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.

            In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Defining the Feature of Cold Wave (Al-Marba'aniyah) in Iraq: Defining the Feature of Cold Wave (Al-Marba'aniyah) in Iraq
...Show More Authors

Abstract:
Al-Marba'aniyah, which is a long cold wave, was defined by ancient
Iraqis. It represents the coldest days in Iraq. In this research paper, a new
scale was put to define it. It shows that the period between the minimum
temperature degree recoded in December and the minimum temperature
degree recorded in January is considered to be the period of Al-Marba'aniyah.
The research concluded that Al-Marba'aniyah is unsteady and it changes in
the days of its occurrence. It was also concluded that the dates of the
beginning and the end of Al-Marba'aniyah are unsteady, too. Moreover, it was
found out that each of the Siberian high, European high, and finally the
subtropical high are the responsible systems for

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Sociological Directions Among Iraqi Scholars: Sociological Directions Among Iraqi Scholars
...Show More Authors

Abstract
This study concerned of scientific analysis of sociological directions
among Iraqi scholars graduated before 1960. These directions was divided
between heritage, conflict, critical and symbolic interaction. It is important to
mention that Al-Wardi scholar tried to build a theory in Sociology focused on
the image of Iraqi personality through historical approach used by Arabian
scholar Ibn-Khaldon.

 

View Publication Preview PDF