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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات توزيع كاما ذي المعلمتين في حالة البيانات المفقودة باستخدام المحاكاة
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The estimation of the parameters of Two Parameters Gamma Distribution in case of missing data has been made by using two important methods: the Maximum Likelihood Method and the Shrinkage Method. The former one consists of three methods to solve the MLE non-linear equation by which the estimators of the maximum likelihood can be obtained: Newton-Raphson, Thom and Sinha methods. Thom and Sinha methods are developed by the researcher to be suitable in case of missing data. Furthermore, the Bowman, Shenton and Lam Method, which depends on the Three Parameters Gamma Distribution to get the maximum likelihood estimators, has been developed. A comparison has been made between the methods in the experimental aspect to find the best meth

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 29 2024
Journal Name
مجلة نسق
The diplomatic role of IGAD in regional peacemaking: Sudan after 2011 as a case study
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The research discusses the most important goals and means of IGAD in making peace in Sudan and then regional peace.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of the actual reality of supply chain operations in Noor Al-Kafeel Food Products Company/ case study.
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Abstract:

                This research aims to identify the actual reality of the supply chain processes applied in the Noor Al-Kafeel Food Products Company, which was chosen as a research sample by measuring the application and documentation gap. The current research relies on the case study method to reach the desired results, and the seven-scale scale was relied on to identify the reality of the supply chain operations applied in the researched company and the use of quantitative and qualitative methods in data collection and analysis, as quantitative methods such as the arithmetic mean were used weighted, percentage measurement, and g

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility of applying CAPP technology to improve the quality of the product
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     The research deals with A very important two subjects, computer aided process planning (CAPP) and Quality of product with its dimintions which identified by the producer organization, the goal of the research is to Highlight and know the role of the CAPP technology to improve quality of the product of (rotor) in the engines factory in the general company for electrical industries, The research depends case study style by the direct visits of researcher to the work location to apply the operational paths generated by specialized computer program designed by researcher, and research divides into four axes, the first regard to the general structure of the research, the second to the theoretical review, the t

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Possibility of Applying Quality Management System ISO9001: 2008 in Station Project Al Rustumiya - A Case Study
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The research study of the possibility of the application of the quality management system under the international standard ISO ISO9001: 2008 in the station project Rustumiya wastewater treatment of the Department of SEWER BAGHDAD - Baghdad MOREALITY as the first step in the right direction towards the implementation of total quality management (TQM), and the research Find the gap between the international standard and the quality system used in the organization surveyed through the use of checklists to analyze the gap, the checklist have included (191) items distributed on five basic requirements, according to the appearance in the international standard, namely, (quality management system, management responsibility, resource man

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Quality, nursing service quality, accreditation standards, standards of nursing practice
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Abstract

      health organizations are trying to  introduce  services of high quality and efficiency which requires  applying some standards of nursing career to improve nursing service quality in the hospital, which provides an essential data base key to diagnosis the negative and positive part in nursing services to guarantee the quality of services presented .  The aim of this study is to evaluated the quality of  nursing service through stating the indicators of nursing career standards by comparing the reality of the a hospital with what should standards . In addition , adapting nursing career standards with what is suitable for hos

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Axiology of Electronic programs in updating the methodology of information and communication sciences Tropes 8.4 Case Study
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The study aims to display the scientific benefit offered by modern electronic programs for various scientific research methods, while determining the positive scientific role played by these programs in modernizing the methodologies and logic of scientific thinking, especially with the rapid development of the sciences and their curricula.
These programs link accurately with scientific results. The importance of the study is to provide practical mechanisms to highlight the scientific projection of the electronic programs in various steps of scientific research.
A case study was used for Tropes version 8.4, which analyzes written, audio and visual semantic texts and presents a set of statistical results that facilitate the difficult

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Audit bank credit risk in accordance with international auditing standards: Applied research at Rafidain Bank, Public Administration - Baghdad
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This research dealt with the subject of auditing bank credit risks in accordance with international auditing standards and aims to develop procedures and design a credit risk audit program in accordance with international auditing standards and demonstrate their impact on the truth, truthfulness and fairness of financial statements and on their overall performance and continuity in the banking sector Its importance lies in relying on international auditing standards to assess and measure bank credit risk and its impact on the financial situation as well as the ability to predict financial failure. A set of conclusions have been reached, the most important of which is that the bank faces difficulties in measuring credit risk in accordance

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Evaluation of Information Security Management System in the Iraqi Commission for Computers and Informatics according to the International Standard (ISO 27001: 2013)
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    The current research included (the evaluation of Information Security Management System on according to international standard (ISO / IEC 27001: 2013) in Iraqi Commission for Computers and Informatics), for the development of an administrative system for information security is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations  dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication  with others. The international legitimacy (represented by the  International Organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment and the importance of the application of information Security Management System accordi

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Chinese-Russian role towards the Iranian nuclear program)An analytical study of formation and development according to international variables and future prospects(
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The Iranian nuclear program was one of the most prominent issues in the international arena, in light of Iran's insistence on using it in various ways, and according to international changes, it came under pressure from the American side to impose packages of sanctions, which continued to our time, as it went to Russia and China to gain support in developing its nuclear activities. And, by virtue of the common interests that are linked between them, Iran has received great support from the last two countries in all fields to reach the final agreement in 2015, regarding asserting the peace of these activities, in addition to lifting all restrictions represented in the previous sanctions according to the Security Council resolutions, Aldo

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