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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Alienation form for ornament’s clouds in Quran
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This research attend about Alienation form for ornament’s clouds in Quran, which includes four parts, the first part talks about the research problem, the researcher identified by following question :( what’s the Alienation form for ornament’s clouds in Quran?). And then the research importance. The research goal talks about Alienation form for ornament’s clouds in Quran. And also research borders, likes means objectives borders, places borders, As well as Terms Definitions, in second part talks about Theoretical framework and previous studies, includes two parts, the first one study Alienation form, meaning and understandable, the second one talks about Alienation form in Islamic arts, As well as the researcher find only one stu

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Generalization of t-Practical Numbers
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This paper generalizes and improves the results of Margenstren, by proving that the number of -practical numbers  which is defined by   has a lower bound in terms of . This bound is more sharper than Mangenstern bound when  Further general results are given for the existence of -practical numbers, by proving that the interval contains a -practical for all

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 13 2018
Journal Name
مجلة الجامعة العراقية
The Secret of Priesthood in Christianity
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Christianity has rites and rituals that they should perform, and are indispensible. They say that these are sacred ordinances by Jesus Christ (PBUH) including the secret of priesthood. The origin of this secret as they claim is Christ. He puts the foundation of priesthood in Christianity. He has chosen twelve disciples and then seventeen whom he ordinated to obtain the honor of spreading the message of Christ among people. He appointed among the priests a divine message which the first fathers from the disciplesthemselves. The disciples are ones who take the secret and deliver it to the ones after them. The disciples took that sacred secret from Christ. Therefore, the secret is used when granting any religious position in the church. That s

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Publication Date
Wed May 05 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
مؤلفات عن وباء الطاعون في الوباء الاسلامي
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Throughout the ages, a number of natural and human disasters have
occurred in the Islamic world,

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection of the community participation in enhancing organizational excellence
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The research aims to identify the role of community participation in achieving organizational distinction in the Dhulia's municipality, which is one of the formations of the Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities and Public Works in Salah al-Din Governorate, which is one of the service organizations that have a fundamental role in providing service to the community, which has faced many administrative challenges and many problems caused by the rapid and continuous changes in the environment, therefore modern management concepts must be adopted, such as community participation and the knowledge of its role To achieve its goals, which helps it in facing changes as well as achieving organizational excelle

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Form and function in the design of intellectual toys
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Playing is the only common language among children in every place and time, to the fact that what distinguishes the children is their quest to play and fun way innate, not acquired, which is expressed with the child really is one of the rights. And play a key entrance to the growth of the child mentally, intellectually and cognitively and not for the child emotionally and socially just. In the play the child begins to identify and classify objects and learn concepts and circulate among themselves on a linguistic basis. Activity here and play a major role in leading the linguistic development of the child in the composition has the communication skills.

The Games (especially intellectual ones) Whatever the cause of the development

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Çağdaş Türk şiirinde imgenin rolü ve önemi Giriş
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Şiiri şiir yapan öğlerin başında imge (hayal, tasavvur, imaj) gelir. İmgesiz şiir düşünülmez. İmge nedir?
İmge duyuyla elde edilen güzelliklerin, deneyimin dil aracıyla ortaya konulmasıdır. Şiiri şiir yapan sadece içeriği değil. Sunuluşu, imgelerin etkili bir biçimde kullanılışı, şairinin bu konudaki yetenek ve ustalığı, insana hitap etmesi, değişimlere açık oluşu, evrenselliği, kalıcılığı, sıra dışı güçlü anlatığına başvuruşu, söz sanatlarından yararlanması, öz anlatım biçimi, kimi zaman alışılmamış bağdaştırmaları bünyesinde barındırması ve sık sık da yinelemeler yardımıyla zengin anlatım aktarımıdır.
Biz bu çalışmamızda şiirde yalnızca imge

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
La voix de la mère dans À la Recherche du Temps perdu
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Abstract

The twentieth century French novel had undergo a significant change that took the form of a radical move from the traditional son who follows his father to one who no way prevalent in the classical French novel. The new son in the 2Oth century novel finds himself emotionally attached which both became a new trend and approach in novel writing.

Marcel Proust's novel which can be considered a source of inspiration for most of 2Oth century novelists is a good example of the mother supremacy which is crystal clear from the first page through its parts and chapters till the last page. In fact, Proust had written a completely different novel from the Balzacian conventions. Unlike the latter's novels, Pro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 28 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التغيير الدلالي في توجيه تعدي الفعل ولزومه
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The Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of the Messengers and his pure and pure family, and may the peace and blessings be abundantly

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Abu Ubaidah's interpretative approach to the metaphor of the Qur’an
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In the name of of Allah the Merciful
        Praise be to God, and blessings and peace be upon the Messenger of God, Muhammad, and upon his family and his family and peace, and after:
 The honor of every knowledge of honor is related to it, and since the science of interpretation is related to the Book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most noble and longest of sciences, and this science began long ago as the early ages of Islam have expanded the Islamic state, and people entered the religion of God in cohorts, and the mixture mixed In tongues, and people did not know much about the meanings of the Qur’an, so the need for authorship in this great knowledge was severe, and pe

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