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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The paradise in surat al-rahman and its preparation
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Our life is a test and the eternal life in the afterlife. So we must work well in our life even win paradise, must always remember the death and there is a life after this death and we will be responsible for everything we've done in our life. God did not create us vain but for reward, punishment, for this we must have to well prepare for this great day and we have to think about what to do in order to win the paradise.
Keywords: paradise, surat al-rahman, preparation.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 15 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
دور التعليم الالكتروني في صناعة المعرفة
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إن تاريخ التعليم  في السنوات الأخيرة هو قصة تحكي تطور التعليم من بُعد والتعليم المفتوح وباختصار " الإنفتاح التعليمي " Opening up education؛فعلى مدى عقود قليلة  عملت  التكنولوجيا الحديثة مثل الكمبيوتر الشخصي ، والوسائط المتعددة التفاعلية ، والإنترنت باستمرار على توسيع فرص

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of strategic alignment on the reputation of the organization
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The current study aims to determine the extent of SOMO's interest in strategic alignment operations and whether this interest is sufficient to be reflected in enhancing its organizational reputation. The field of research was in the oil marketing company SOMO. The managers in the top management within this company were targeted and the questionnaire was used as a data collection tool. The study population (109), (105) questionnaires were distributed, (94) questionnaires and (11) questionnaires were not retrieved, and the valid questionnaires had reached (91) and the analytical and descriptive approach was used for the study, the current research found to find A direct relationship and a positive effect of strategic

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Transitional justice: a study of the concept and mechanisms
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The concept of transitional justice is newly emerging, as it was mainly associated with addressing issues of serious breaches and abuses of human rights during conflicts and situations resulting from violence and the use of force in societies that are in the process of democratization, as transitional justice aims primarily to restore civil peace and rebuild institutions The state needs multidimensional justice: a judicial system that achieves the rule of law, corrective restoration of the wounds of the past, and a distributive characteristic of the redistribution of wealth.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The phenomenon of military governments in the Arab countries
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The modern nation state, by virtue of its institutional nature, is divided into political and non-political institutions according to their respective jurisdictions. It is natural for non-political institutions to perform their functions under the control of the political establishment, for two reasons: first, Second: Ensuring the achievement of cooperation, harmony and integration between these different institutions in serving the stability of the society and its continuity and achieving its supreme objectives. The location of the military establishment is part of the non-political institutions of the state, since it carries out a non-political function that is based on defending the homeland against any threats that may threaten its s

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التعليم التعليم في كربلاء 1958-1968
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هذه الدراسة محاولة جادة لفهم تطور التعليم في كربلاء المقدسة خلال المدة 1958-1968، تناول البحث محاور عدة، ابتدأ في رياض الاطفال، ومن ثم التعليم الابتدائي في كربلاء، فالتعليم الثانوي. اعتمد التربية، التخطيط، الارشاد، فضلاً عن عديد الكتب التي اعتمدت الوثائق والتي سيجدها القارئ في ثبت المصادر.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Investigation of Effecting Parameters in a Turning Operation
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        In this study multi objective optimization is utilized to optimize a turning operation to reveal the appropriate level of process features. The goal of this work is to evaluate the optimal combination of cutting parameters like feed, spindle speed, inclination angle and workpiece material to have a best surface quality Taguchi technique L9 mixed orthogonal array, has been adopted to optimize the roughness of surface. Three rods of length around (200 mm) for the three metals are used for this work. Each rod is divided into three parts with 50 mm length. For brass the optimum parametric mix for minimum Ra is A1, B1 and C3, i.e., at tool inclination angle (5), feedrate of 0.01, spindle speed of 120

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اهمية أهمية الريف في الدولة الإسلامية
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Agriculture is one of the important job in the human life.  Since the first beginning of humanity life, agriculture was the basis property in order to get individual foods.  The Holy Quran and Hadith were supplied agriculture and all Muslims were followed this field especially after Islamic state expansion and its possessive many lands which developed directly our Islamic civilization. 

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
(Love and Love) in the light of the significance of Quranic
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Thanks allah and peace be upon our prophet muhammed and upon his family and his
followers……
Love means in holy quran what comes to people s mind nowadays and what it inspired its
signi ficence is related with sensual desire and it means adore and passion .by the waythe
word (ishiq) adore wasn’t mentioned in holy quran which means that both of their bases are
farfrom each oiter in m eaning.
The significance of love means virtue while adore means the excess and desire so adore is
dis praised . as al askari said (died 395h )between love and adore.adore is the strain of desire
to get the purpose from lovers if it was ahuman who intended to make love affairs.
Today both of love and adore changed in their meani

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
الفخر بالشاعرية في شعر الشريف المرتضى
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Pride in the poetic Genius in Al-Shareef Al-Murtada's poetry.Pride in the poetic genius is a rich and recurring subject .The poets always compete with each other to show their skills in composing poetry.This subject illustrates the poet's creative talents and his ability to comprehend the vocabulary of the Arabic language.Pride in the poetic gift witnessed great development which was caused by the cultural progress of the Abyssian Age. Such influences are often reflected in poetry because it is an essential part of life.

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