تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract : The concept of moderation is one of the important concepts that have been discussed in political thought in general and in Islamic political thought in particular. It concerns the status of moderation and balance and the need of Islamic societies to apply them in contemporary times. The Islamic societies faced challenges facing Islamic advancement. And the right, which is the middle between the excessive and the excessive -and the exaggeration and cost-, and between negligence and default, moderation and integritybetween both two sides are: excessive and negligent". In addition, the concept of moderation and its intellectual roots have been sought in the Holy Quran and the noble prophetic, and the search for its charac
... Show Moredictates the need to study the cultural aspects of the context and the consequent relations between the person and the objective environment surrounding him, as the philosophical understanding of the role of culture has led to the emergence of new theoretical interpretations of design that are organically linked with the development of society, especially that the development of the human environment philosophically and culturally is linked to the philosophical perception of its role in Culture as a precondition for new theoretical interpretations of design.
From the above, this problem can be studied by defining the following question (What are the implications of the cultural context in graphic design)?
The research included
The Scarlet Woman, Waugh's only screenplay and one of the least popular among his works, says more than it really does. Despite its crudeness in terms of plot, acting, and directing, it conveys a serious message. On a limited scale, The Scarlet Woman might be regarded as Waugh's version of Dante's Purgatorio. Written when he was at Oxford, it shows symptoms of subconscious rejection of the wild life he led without God. Five years before his conversion to Catholicism, Waugh seems to have been waiting for purgation. This is his design in The Scarlet Woman.
As a satirist a
... Show MoreReceipt date:11/19/2020 acceptance date:10/1/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Human rights are one of the basic concepts of modern and contemporary times, and political thought as the origin of political science and its source of knowledge have impact in this science and its branches
... Show Moreהקדמה
עיון זה מטפל ביסוד עיקרי במבנה השירי, כלומר הצורה השירית, המהווה את היסוד הבולט והחשוב ביותר
בשירה, אין שיר בעל ערך אמנותי שלא מכיל צורה שירית יפה.
העיון הזה כולל מבוא על הצורה השירית , בו הצגנו דעות של מבקרים ערביים ומערביים בולטים ביחס הנושא ,
למען הגשת צורה מפורשת להבנת מבנה הצורה השירית . סקרנו את היסודות העיקריים שנשענה עליהם
הצורה השירית ומהן: הדמיון, הדמוי, מטאפורה, סמל, סיפקנו הסבר מפורט על
The aim of the research is to estimate the hidden population. Here، the number of drug users in Baghdad was calculated for the male age group (15-60) years old ، based on the Bayesian models. These models are used to treat some of the bias in the Killworth method Accredited in many countries of the world.
Four models were used: random degree، Barrier effects، Transmission bias، the first model being random، an extension of the Killworth model، adding random effects such as variance and uncertainty Through the size of the personal network، and when expanded by adding the fact that the respondents have different tendencies، the mixture of non-random variables with random to produce
... Show MoreT.V photo in modern shows has emerged with special characteristics and signs that have developed in cope with the development of medium and technique. This leads to adding a variety of aesthetic dimensions which are capable of attracting audience because of its communicative elements that have an important role in increasing of T.V show Watching. As a result, the research is limited to methodological Framework as the problem. The problem of the research deals with emerging the aesthetic dimensions of T.V photo. The major question is (what are the aesthetic and communicative dimension of T.V Photo?). The research aims at finding out the aesthetic dimensions of T.V photo in modern artworks. The significance of the research on the presented
... Show MoreThe process of name calling in the propaganda discourse is one of the most important methods of persuasive propaganda act, based on the ideology of working with the function, and the valuation of this function, creating a hermeneutic representation of the meaning falls within a specific format and responds to a specific function, which is the realization of the intent of the propaganda doer in persuasion and persuasion through negative and positive propaganda logic. The method of name calling has played a dangerous and horrific role in conflicts and ideological and military wars throughout history.
This study aims to find out the mechanisms of semiotics system behind discourse of propaganda far from substantive&n
... Show Moreمما لاشك فيه أنّ اندفاعنا للقيام بهذه الدراسة المتواضعة له أسبابه ، أهمها إن بعض الأبنية الصرفية مازالت مغمورة في ركام الدراسة قابعة تحت غبار الزمن على أساس أنها خارجة عن القواعد الصرفية الأساسية من غير مسوغ لهذا الخروج ، وهذه محاولة جادة للوقوف على بعضها ، لكي ننفض عنها الغبار لتخرج إلى النور ،