تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research aims to (identify the applications of pedagogy in art education), the research community included, art education for the primary stage, so the community consisted of (8) main areas in art education, either the research sample was chosen, two main areas (objectives, and content), and included the research methodology (descriptive and analytical), the researcher built the research tool represented (the validity form of the tool) and presented to a group of experts to indicate its validity as well as to measure its stability, To show the results, the researcher used the percentage, and the researcher recommended - modifying the curriculum every period of time, such as every four years, others
The current research dealt with the development of sciences and arts over the course of human history, and the development of sciences with their natural and human trends are important areas in developing the knowledge and application base for industrial product design and design in its various fields. Bionic science is one of the sciences that works on applying biological methods and systems found in nature to study and design engineering systems and modern technology, and for industrial products to be highly efficient, durable and resistant to natural variables in daily life for use. The transfer of technology between life forms and industrial products is desirable because the processes of development at the level of science in general
... Show MoreThe reality of social and technological change confirms that the classroom environment which prevailing present time is not suitable to emerge a new generation of people that have enough ability to face the contemporary challenges , this fact is as a result of education that is just focus on remembering and knowledge which is based on realities .but the real education should be based on understanding and thinking that is not reflected in our current educational reality . its noticeable that thinking is not take a pivotal role in curriculum this has been confirmed by a study ( al – musswi ,2011 ) ) and may be due all that these curriculum are still interested in quantity without concern in quality so its lost the spirit of renewal and c
... Show MoreThe phonological level represents one of the important and basic language levels. On the functional and performative levels, it is accompanied by verbal evidences that participate in highlighting the meaning
Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and prayers and peace be upon our master Muhammad and upon his family and companions.
And after:
Muslim scholars have fought in the extent of regard to these interests, each according to his opinion and according to his evaluation, and his consideration of this interest, but it remains important that the legislation in them needs more precaution and caution against the predominance of passions, because the passions often decorate spoilers so they see an interest, so practical application must To realize the spirit of Islamic Sharia in its entirety of its rulings, and the preponderance between the interests and evils that prevail in our societies, which c
... Show MoreThe laws of the three religions tend to extend the rules and foundations of coexistence, and this is achieved in achieving the values and principles that these laws have nourished in all societies.
Our research deals with a major problem that has broken out in our societies, namely (disturbing the balance of values and behavioral standard between people), and perhaps one of the greatest causes of the problem is to move away from the correct divine discourse and sound approach, as well as corruption of common sense and the violation of its rules and found principles in the hearts of people.
The study consisted of an introduction، two chapters and a conclusion
The first، tagged topic (: His lineage، birth، and family)، traces the lineage، birth، and family of Abd al-Ilah Hafez.
The second topic، which came under the title (The Role of Abd al-Ilah Hafez in the printing of currency)، was concerned.
The study relied on a large number of unpublished documents، foremost of which are the documents of the Central Bank of Iraq. It contained a lot of information about its administrative activity، its positions، orders and plans in this direction.
The House of Books and Documents is considered Al-Manhal، which is indispensable for any research to study the royal his
... Show MoreABSTRACT Studying the positive and negative effects resulted from the industrial projects and laying down the comprehensive planning bases to the urban development projects which insure retaining the social, economic and environmental development, taking in to consternation the time factor within the planning process which is considered the most important factor that determine the extent of the efficient selection to the site and not interpenetrate in the industrial activities and efficiency and calculating its future expansions away from the residential areas. It is more favorable to plan the industrial areas of apparent pollution outside the bounds of the basic plan to limit the negative effects on the environment and providing
... Show MoreProvisions of combat games In Islamic Jurisprudence
ان في هذه الاية الكريمة لآبلغ وصف للاكتئاب حيث الضيق الشديد والشعور باليأس من الدنيا والوحدة .
وقال المتنبي :.
كفى بك داء ان ترى الموت شافياً
وحسب المنايا ان يكن امانيا
وقال مجنون ليلى :.
وامطر في التراب سحاب جفني
وقلبي في هموم واكتئاب
الحزن والقلق والهم والغم جزء من حياة الناس وهناك كثير من العوامل الممه
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