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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
الاحكام الفقھیة للمولود في الاسبوع الاول
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Islam had come to urge for justice, to call for the freedom of the human and to
assert his dignity. Islamic education focused on the perfect growth of the
individual, presence of the human and his future as well. The Islam also attended in
education of the child raising him with respect all aspects of life. All of these things
had made the Islamic education as an extensive and balanced. There is no wonder
to consider Islam as the main source of legislation to attain its definitive aim which
is to establish a rational sober human worships God and educates the earth where
he settle down and make use of all its blessings due to God's legislation. (Shari 'a)
If Islam takes care of raising upbringing a child since his

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
نسق
Semiotic Isotopy and Its Effect on Reading Comprehension
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Modalities and Methodological Techniques in Media Studies
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There have been many writings and discussions that dealt with the details and interpretation of the research methods and the identification of the methods and methodological methods used by researchers and writers as they deal with research topics and problems in all fields of natural and human sciences. But we noticed that the movement of science and its knowledge and development requires the identification of suitable tools and methodological methods appropriate for each type of science. In other words, attempts should be established to build appropriate methodological tools for human and cognitive activity that can be referred to as a specific science that sets out certain paths of the human sciences which is certainly the ori

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jan 05 2010
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العلاقات العراقية التركية في مجال المياه
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العلاقات العراقية التركية في مجال المياه

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Discipline in the classroom (problems and solutions)
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Research Summary

First: the problem of research and its importance

      The teacher's success in facilitating the students' learning and growth according to the educational and educational goals set out, he must identify the problems of discipline of students in the classroom in terms of sources and reasons and types and methods of prevention and treatment and the teacher to remember that success in his teaching and instruction is not completed more fully once he has the information And knowledge of the subject of the lesson, but must understand the dynamics of the group (class group) and master the skills of classroom management, su

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 20 2016
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية الاساسية
The secret of Repentance and Confession in Christianity
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The reason for studying (The secret of Repentance and Confession in Christianity) goes back to the deep roots of repentance in all religions, specially the three revealed religions, and those who adhere to them. The human psych by nature is incessantly demanding sins and the wrong deeds. It is in need of repentance which God has opened for them. Almighty God is happy when his creatures repent and refrain from sinning. This is the reason for success in life and the hereafter and the principle of the happiness. It is also a condition for the good course. Therefore, man should refrain from sinning and feel regret for committing sins forever.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Baghdadin Drinks and Foods stuff Abbasyat Ages
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Baghdadin Drinks and Foods stuff Abbasyat Ages

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Acoustic significance of the comma in the Qur'an Al-Jinn
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Interval lies at rest in the speech; so as to improve to speak out, which is how Evaln Koran by other speech, called separators; for the secession of Alkalaman then, as the last verse separation between it and its aftermath in the Al-Jinn had a comma significant impact on the statement of the case of gin, as portrayed interval Gin and like the distraught after hearing of the Koran
This Sura carried various types of repetition represent wordy repeat itself and repeat some of the votes as well as the repeated sound of a thousand who remained in Sura breaks Bhaa also repeat the voice of the shredder breaks
Linguistic sounds of Koranic breaks played a significant role in a statement carried by the linguistic meaning of these interludes

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Labor Partnership in early Islamic Law
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In terms of each party's contribution to the common venture, partnership felt in several categories. It would be a complete partnership, that is, one in which all partnership, both capital and service; It could be an arrangement like the commenda (Arabic : Mudãraba , muqãraba , girãd) in which one party supplied the capital and the other service .
In Malikite and Hanaifite Law, It would take the form of a labor partnership, that is, one in which the only investment on the part of all its members was their skill or labor. In this last category of partnership, the captil itself considered solely or primarily of the labor of the partners.

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Publication Date
Fri May 19 2023
Journal Name
مجلة الكنوز العلمية
واقعاالستثمار في راس المال الفكري والبشري
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The idea of the current research stemmed from the vital role of investment in the development of sustainable human resources, as the research aims to investigate education as a mechanism for investment in human and intellectual capital in the College of Administration and Economics / University of Baghdad, which is a site for conducting the study, and highlights the importance of research through the flow of knowledge experiences of capital Intellectual and human money, which is the source of wealth and pillars of power. The problem of the research was represented by a major question: What is the extent to which the quality of education can be applied as a means of investing in intellectual and human capital? The case study approach was use

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