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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of constructivist model of yager in acquiring the geographical concepts among first intermediate students in geography
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The purpose of the study is to investigate the effect of the constructivist model of yager in acquiring the geographical concepts among first intermediate students in geography. The study was carried on based on the null hypothesis, which states, there is no significant difference at the level of (0.05) between the experimental group that follows yager model in learning the principles of geography, and the control group that studies the same subject considering the traditional methods of learning, the. To do so, a sample of (70) first-intermediate student were chosen purposefully from two random class for the academic year (2016-2017) divided into two groups. The selected schools located at Al-rusafa side in the city of Baghdad, as well

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
العامل المساحي في المدارس الابتدائية وأثره في نفسية التلاميذ - (منطقة الدراسة: محلة 427\الكاظمية-بغداد) -
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effects of human error in the banking risks - Empirical study in a number of Iraqi private banks
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Abstract

This research aims to study human error effects in the banking risks in the private banks  through the measurement and testing of human error effect in every kind of banking risks types and stand on the most closely associated with the risks in order to focus on them and make appropriate processors have with respect to and increase the availability of skills and expertise required to carry out banking operations of error-free manner.

Find dealt with human error in terms of meaning and understandable, classifications and types, causes and consequences and its approaches and theories. Also addressed placed banking risks in terms of meaning and concept, species and entr

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Degree of Availability of Design Thinking Indicators in the content of Arabic Language Curricula at the secondary stage in Syrian Arab Republic
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The study aimed to identify the degree of availability of design Thinking Indicators in The content of the Arabic Language Curricula at the secondary stage in the Syrian Arab Republic; to achieve the goal of the study. The researcher used the Descriptive Approach based on the analysis method according to the Cognitive Theory. The study tools consist of a list of Design Thinking Indicators and a Content Analysis Tool. The researcher completed the Validity and Reliability procedures for the tools. After applying them, the results of the study resulted in the following: Greater Interest than other sub-skills. The results also showed a Divergence of care for the sub-skills and the Difference in their recurrence rate, and the Omission of some

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Knowledge and Skills regarding Oxygen Administration Methods at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Mosul City
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Objective: To assess knowledge and skills level regarding oxygen administration methods at p
ediatric teaching hospitals in Mosul City.
Methodology: A descriptive study was applied at pediatric teaching hospitals (Al-Kansaa, and Ibn Al-Atheer) in Mosul City from 8 of October / 2018 till 29 of May / 2019. The selection of the sample was non- probability (Purposive). This sample involved of (52) nurses. The questionnaire was constructed which consists of three parts and provided for nurses. The questionnaire validity was carried out through a panel of experts. To evaluate statistically the reliability of instruments, the pilot study was applied through period from 20– till –31 of January / 2019. Non-randomly (6) nurses from Ibn S

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of strategic leadership in knowledge management processes "Diagnostic Study in the Office of the Ministry of Oil - Project Department"
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The research deals with the important and modern two subjects, strategic leadership which have six demotions and knowledge management
(four demotions') . the gools & the research is to know the relation & the effect them in the oil ministry (project department) , the sample was (50) persons who works in the department the questionnaire was the tool of data gathering .

The research divided to four parties, the first  to the theotical review of the research variables, the second to the research methrology, the third to analysis and discoed the empirical results the last to the conclusions and recommendations .

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reflection of Performance Management Practices on Organizational Excellence
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Abstract

The research aims to shed light on the extent to which the practices of performance management in achieving organizational excellence in one of the formations and the Ministry of Finance (GCT). The importance of the selection of these organizations is that they occupies a large and exceptional importance in the national economy through income redistribution add it to cover a large part of the state budget revenues, these organizations possess functionally diverse cadre of them pregnant initial certification and other senior and he fairly stable To meet this target, and on the basis of the data search exploratory researcher built model hypothesis for the search included variable impressionist and

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تحولات تَحولات الزَّمان في مُقدَمة القَصيدة الجَاهلية (دراسة تحليلية في شعر زهير بن أبي سلمى)
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Addresses research philosophy decade in significance vehicle metamorphic between the time the real is between two moments two different: the moment the last beautiful memories of parents and beloved, but the present moment harsh stand on

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of leadership styles in the crisis management center the Strategic planning - Field research in the Headquarters Ministry of electricity
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Abstract

The current research aims to testing the impact of leadership styles (autocratic, democratic) in crises management (Making decision response, communications and information flows, Mobilization of resources) through strategic planning (Mission, objectives, and environmental analysis, and strategic choice) among managers of the Iraqi Ministry of electricity. Questionnaire has been adopted as a tool in data and information relating to research, as it had prepared on the basis of number of scales and finished using the included Likert quintet, which  has been subjected to standards of validity and reliability and distributed to a sample consisting of (96) managers at the three departments of Min

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الزراعة ا لزراعة في بلاد الشام في القرن الثامن الهجري من خلال رحلة ابن بطوطة
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Greatest travelers Muslims and Ousahm fame, called sheikh Rahalin to frequent roam in outlook, he spent twenty-eight years of his life in travel-related trips and successive, is Ibn Battuta, who wander in, as it was of adventurers who pushed curiosity to ride a lot of difficulties.

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