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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 10 2023
Journal Name
الجمعية العراقية للعلوم السياسية
Ethnofideralism: A Study in the Belgian Experience
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Belgium is one of the countries that headed towards federalism through a peaceful transition, and over a few decades the country has witnessed deep transformations in its institutions, from a unified and central state in the early nineteenth century to a federal union, regional operations began since 1970 up and constitutionally established its diversity Linguistic and regional, the so -called "state reforms" have been implemented, which led to the emergence of political repercussions. The country has suffered about two decades ago, which caused many national governments that are considered to be among the Luxor in the modern political history of Belgium, However, institutional reforms to achieve the stability of the political system began,

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 04 2024
Journal Name
مجلة مركز بابل للدراسات الانسانية
The Rhetorical methods in Hebrew advertisements
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Advertisement is one of the Media most efficient persuasive communicative activities designed to marketing different ideas and products with the aim of influencing consumers' perception of goods and services. The present study sheds light on the most prominent rhetorical devices that constitute the persuasive structure of the Hebrew advertisements published in various media outlet. The study is conducted by means of analyzing the linguistic structure of the advertising texts and according to the analytic and descriptive approach to know the characteristics and the functions of the oratorical devices used in the advertising industry. The research elucidates that most of the advertisements are written in slang language, and this is due to th

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 18 2019
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم السياسية
اشكالية تعاقب السلطة في لبنان
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تُعَد السلطة السياسية في لبنان, هدفاً أساسياً لكل تنظيم سياسي, سواءأ كان حزب سياسي أم جماعة سياسية معينة. وبذلك ينشأ الصراع على السلطة, وهناك نوعان من الصراع السياسي يجري التمييز بينهما بدلالة فكرة الشرعية, فالتنافس يكون في النظام السياسي عندما ينعقد الاتفاق بين القوى الاجتماعية على اعتباره شرعي اً, ويكون الصراع على النظام السياسي عندما ينقطع الاتفاق بين هذه القوى على شرعيته, وان قوى المعارضة تعمل على الإطاحة

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
موازين النقد في الشعر الفارسي
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موازين النقد في الشعر الفارسي

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 18 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The succession of power's problem in Lebanon
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Abstract Political power in Lebanon is a fundamental objective of any political organization, whether political party or political group. Thus, there is a conflict of power. There are two kinds of political conflict that are differentiated by the idea of legitimacy. The competition is in the political system when the agreement between the social forces is considered legitimate, and the conflict is on the political system when the agreement between these forces ceases to be legitimate and Are working to topple it and seek to establish an alternative system. Therefore, the succession of power in Lebanon is a result of the competition and political conflict, which is in turn a result of the large number of regional and international players

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 13 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
سيا Contextual study of faces and isotopes
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This is a contextual study in face and isotope science, and I have made it in one of the terms faces and isotopes, which is the word (bad). Quranic also, and that is at every aspect they mentioned.
The nature of the research required that it be divided into three sections:
The first topic: I singled it out to show the types of contextual connotations.
- The second topic: I singled it out to define the word bad and its meaning.
- The third topic: I devoted it to the study of the word bad and explaining the significance of the Quranic context on the additional meaning and the original meaning.
Conclusion: It mentioned the most important results, which are:
1- The significance of the Quranic context is one of the most impo

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Nesrin Erbil'in Şiirlerinde Üzüntü
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Nesrin Erbil, Çağdaş Türk şiirinin kıvançla söyliyebileceğimiz öncü bir isimdir. Gerçek aşk, ayrılık, üzüntü, sevgiliye hasretin yetiştirdiği ve olanaksızlıklara haykıran bir sesidir. O bir Türkcesine tüm zencirleri kıran engelleri aşan sevgiyle sevgiye ve sevgiliye koşan kendi başına bir yaratıcılıktır. Şiirleri Erbil kokar yumuşak saçının tellerini Altın Köprü suyuyla yıkamayı diler. Yüreği ise Gürgür Baba’dır Türkmen için yanar.

          Nesrin Erbil, 1960 yılından sonra Irak’ta gelişen yeni Türk edebiyatı ve serbest şiir akımının en önde gelen temsilcisi olarak, büyük ilgi toplamıştır. Şiire karşı olan merak

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
النخيل في القوانين العراقية القديمة
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      لقد عرف سكان وادي الرافدين ، ومنذ أقدم العصور أهمية أشجار النخيل وما تقدمه من فوائد ضمن النواحي الاجتماعية والاقتصادية والدينية (1)، ولذلك أتسع نطاق زراعة النخيل من أرض سومر في الجنوب إلى شمال بابل ( باب ايلي )،وكانت  اغلب البساتين مختصة بزراعة النخيل بالدرجة الأولى (2) ، وتعد تكريت( تكريتا) أو قلعة برتو (في العصر الآشوري) الحد الأعلى لهذا الامتداد ، ولكنها لا تنمو في بلاد أ

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
مؤخّر الصداق في الفقه الإسلامي
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The science of jurisprudence of the most honorable science, and engaged in the great reward with God Almighty; Today, they strive to highlight this tremendous wealth by searching for it, studying it, realizing it and presenting it to mankind for the purpose of benefiting from it.
   It is a blessing to me that guided me to write in jurisprudence on the subject: (Delayed dowry in Islamic jurisprudence) Islamic law has preserved the rights of the wife to her husband, which is a financial and moral right. It is one of the provisions of the marriage contract and not a health condition and therefore marriage is held without mentioning in the contract.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Rulings of magic  and its treatment in Islam
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Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and the best of prayers. He has completed the delivery of our master Muhammad, his family, and all his companions. O God, bring us out from the darkness of illusion, honor us with the light of understanding, open us with knowledge of knowledge, facilitate our morals with dreams, and make us who listen to the saying and follow their best.
And after ..

Since ancient times, magic was mentioned in many books in the history of the civilizations of ancient peoples, where the first emergence of human civilizations, the oldest of which is the Mesopotamian civilization, the Chinese civilization, and the Pharaonic civilization in Egypt, where concepts prevailed based on the charlatans and sorcery an

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