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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Modern structuralism in International Relations
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The neo – realism school confirms the using of soft instruments in foreign policy which replaced martial means . this is the age of economies that based on in formatting and interdependence which overpass the national boundaries . The power becomes less trans fer able and trans fordable. It becomes tangible and less coercive . The former American minister Henry Kissinger , despite his deep belief in the policy of the traditional power balance, argued in 1975 by saying “we are now witnessing a new Ara. The new global patterns are falling apart … we are living in a new world of inter deepen dense in the economy communications and human tartan aspirations” The priority of economy in concern of war was the mean reason behind the winn

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
La France de la « Belle Époque » de 1890- 1914
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The rhetorical significance of history and the presentation of events through ages allow us to understand the mental changes and to investigate the evolution of the ideology of literary philosophy.                                                                                       

    

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Mass Transfer Coefficient in Rotating Biological Contactor with Perforated Discs (RPBC)
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Abstract

 In order to make an improvement associated with rotating biological contactor (RBC), a new design of biofilm reactor called as Rotating perforated disc biological contactor (RPBC) was developed in which the rotating discs are perforated. The transfer of oxygen from air to wastewater was investigated. Mass-transfer coefficient (KLa)  in the liquid phase was determined by measuring  the rate transfer of oxygen.  A   laboratory scale of (RPBC) consisted of a semicircular trough was used with a working capacity of 40 liters capacity of liquid. Synthetic wastewater was used as a liquid phase, while air was used as a gas phase.

The effects of m

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Modeling sequential preparation with rheumatoid tonsils in Nineveh for the period 2004-2009
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Abstract
             In this research will be treated with a healthy phenomenon has a significant impact on different age groups in the community, but a phenomenon tonsillitis where they will be first Tawfiq model slope self moving averages seasonal ARMA Seasonal through systematic Xbox Cengnzla counter with rheumatoid tonsils in the city of Mosul, and for the period 2004-2009 with prediction of these numbers coming twelve months, has found that the specimen is the best representation of the data model is the phenomenon SARMA (1,1) * (2,1) 12  from the other side and explanatory variables using a maximum temperature and minimum temperature, sol

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 11 2003
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Modeling of Plasma Affected Thermal Profile in Solids During Laser Materials Processing
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A new scheme of plasma-mediated thermal coupling has been implemented which yields the temporal distributions of the thermal flux which reaches the metal surface, from which the spatial and temporal temperature profiles can be calculated. The model has shown that the temperature of evaporating surface is determined by the balance between the absorbed power and the rate of energy loss due to evaporation. When the laser power intensity range is 107 to108 W/cm2 the temperature of vapor could increase beyond the critical temperature of plasma ignition, i.e. plasma will be ignited above the metal surface. The plasma density has been analyzed at different values of vapor temperature and pressure using Boltzmann’s code for calculation of elec

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Case studies on urban agriculture as a planning strategy for achieving sustainability in cities
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 Urban agriculture is one of the important urban uses of land in cities since the inception of cities and civilizations, but the great expansion of cities in the world during the twentieth century and the beginning of the twentieth century and the increase in the number of urban residents compared to the rural population has led to a decline in this use in favor of other uses.

 This decline in agricultural and green land areas in cities has negatively affected the environment, natural life and biological diversity in cities in addition to the great impact on the climate and the increase in temperatures and the negative impact on the economic side, since urban agriculture is an important pillar of the economy, especially

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2007
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
مبادئ العلاقات الدولية
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مبادئ العلاقات الدولية

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 05 2010
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
دور المراكز البحثية في الحياة السياسية وصنع القرار السياسي الخارجي الامريكي
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دور المراكز البحثية في الحياة السياسية وصنع القرار السياسي الخارجي الامريكي

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine the optimal decision in the process of production planning usingDynamic programming style
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The operation of production planning is a difficult operation and it's required High effect and large time especially it is dynamic activity which it's basic variables change in continuous with the time, for this reason it needs using one of the operation research manner (Dynamic programming) which has a force in the decision making process in the planning and control on the production and its direct affect on the cost of production operation and control on the inventory.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Observation and Analysis the role of Convolutional Neural Network towards Lung Cancer Prediction
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Lung cancer is one of the most serious and prevalent diseases, causing many deaths each year. Though CT scan images are mostly used in the diagnosis of cancer, the assessment of scans is an error-prone and time-consuming task. Machine learning and AI-based models can identify and classify types of lung cancer quite accurately, which helps in the early-stage detection of lung cancer that can increase the survival rate. In this paper, Convolutional Neural Network is used to classify Adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and normal case CT scan images from the Chest CT Scan Images Dataset using different combinations of hidden layers and parameters in CNN models. The proposed model was trained on 1000 CT Scan Images of cancerous and non-c

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