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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
مجلة ابحاث ميسان
دور مؤسسات التعليم العالي في تعزيز قيم المواطنة في المجتمع العراقي
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دور مؤسسات التعليم العالي في تعزيز قيم المواطنة في المجتمع العراقي

Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of the proposed strategy of Maysan Oil Company for the years 2020-2024
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ناقش البحث في طياته عدداً من القضايا الرئيسة المتعلقة بالتقييم الاستراتيجي والإطار العام للخطة الاستراتيجية المقترحة لشركة نفط ميسان للسنوات الخمس المقبلة (2020_2024)، وهدف هذا البحث يتمحور في تقييم عملية صياغة استراتيجية شركة نفط ميسان لتحديد نقاط القوة وتعضيدها ومواطن الضعف ومحاولة معالجتها لتجنب الوقوع بها عند وضع استراتيجية للسنوات القادمة، وعلى هذا الاساس فان مشكلة البحث تكمن في مدى نجاح الاستراتي

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determining the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq (analytical study for the period 1990-2014)
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The objective of this study is to determine the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq for the period 1990-2014 and to indicate the nature of the technological progress used in it. To achieve this objective we have built an econometric model, by adapting the production function constant elasticity for substitution, using multiple regression, and enforcement, SPSS program, and using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). The results showed that quantitative factors (labour and capital) are the main sources of growth the cement industry in Iraq, and the qualitative factors (technological progress) did not contribute effectively to achieve this growth. And that the production techniques adopted in the cement industry in

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A Vision to development the Islamic banks that operating under the financial system based on interest: (Iraq Case Study)
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This paper aims to build a modern vision for Islamic banks to ensure sustainability and growth, as well it aims to highlight the positive Iraqi steps in the Islamic banking sector. In order to build this vision, several scientific research approaches were adopted (quantitative, descriptive analytical, descriptive). As for the research community, it was for all the Iraqi private commercial banks, including Islamic banks. The research samples varied according to a diversity of the methods and the data availability. A questionnaire was constructed and conducted, measuring internal and external honesty. 50 questionnaires were distributed to Iraqi academic specialized in Islamic banking. All distributed forms were subject to a thorough analys

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Monocrystalline PV Cell Considering Ambient Conditions in Baghdad City
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Abstract

 

The environmental conditions are important factors, because they affect both the efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the energy load. This research was carried out experimentally and modeling was done in MATLAB –Simulink by monitoring the variation in power output of the system with environmental conditions such as solar radiation, ambient temperature, wind speed, and humidity of Baghdad city. From the results, the ambient temperatures are inversely proportional to humidity and the output power performance of the system, while the wind speed is directly proportional with the output power performance of the system.  

 

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Crossref (4)
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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية
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مكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflecting the mental abilities of decision-makers in defining the strategic orientation
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        The purpose of this research is to highlight the nature of the relationship between the mental abilities of decision makers and strategic orientation . The intellectual capacity of decision-makers is the cornerstone for the implementation of all the tasks and duties of the Organization and constitutes the most important of its capabilities. As a result of the sharp changes in the environment in which it operates, this organization must accurately define its strategic directions to ensure its

survival and continuity. The problem of field research was to answer a fundamental question: Is the Iraqi director aware of how to employ mental abilities in strategic direc

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
نظم دعم القرار واختيار الأداة الملائمة لبنائها
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DSS are the result of the information technology.  DSS focus on providing the relative support to improve the quality of decision making in the organization.  The quality of decisions depends on the information availability and the adequate models of analysis.  DSS have evolved since the 1970's.  The globalization and the organizational complexity have strongly effect the DSS development.  The purpose of this research work is to shed the light on the essence of DSS, its tools (OLAP, Web-Based……..), and to provide a framework to assist the Iraq organization in selecting the appropriate DSS tool for implementation.  This research is important because it highlights the role of DSS and their evolutions which

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The challenges facing the Insurance sector in Iraq Analytical study in Iraqi insurance companies (National insurance company as model)
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Most of World nations are striving to provide the necessary needs to protect their economic properties assets against natural or abnormal disasters that may be inflicted on such property and the means that used by such countries to reduce the damages is insurance, whereas insurance as a system that collects and distributes different risks into the group thus  to achieve a social symbiosis between individuals. The system works to transfer the risks from the individual to the group and then distributes the losses to all members of the group.

According to the importance of the insurance sector and the need to develop it as well as working on improving its performance, this search aims to identify the ac

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE USE OF MICROENCAPSULATION TECHNOLOGY WITH COATING LAYER BY LAYER TO IMPROVE THE STABILITY OF THE Lactobacillus casei TOWARDS THE BILE SALTS AND TREATMENT HEAT.: THE USE OF MICROENCAPSULATION TECHNOLOGY WITH COATING LAYER BY LAYER TO IMPROVE THE STABILITY OF THE Lactobacillus casei TOWARDS THE BILE SALTS AND TREATMENT HEAT.
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This study aimed to improve the microencapsulation technique using a type coating the encapsulation Layer by Layer, which provide the best protection for life Lactobacillus casei in the extrusion method and use the microencapsulation of materials of the protein concentrated by protein 80% and the coating with alginate and chitosan have the results showed the variation in the difference of the binding process encapsulation yield among the types of coating through. by studying of these the effect o stability of the bio probiotic free cell and the three types coated towards three different concentrations from bile salts 0, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7% when the periods of time different of zero and two and three hours at incubation the recorded

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