تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
All aspects of life are controlled directly or indirectly by the church. The Crusades has the essential role in the weakness of feudalism because a lot of slaves escaped to participate in these wars and the Masters were unable to prevent them since the church blessed these Wars and the Participants
تميز الشعر الاندلسي بمجموعة من القيم الجمالية ، تبرز الجمال والقبيح والتراجيدي ، وعبر عن هذه القيم من خلال نظام بنائي جمالي مميز انسجم وطبيعة تلك القيم
والتراجيديا تتمثل بحالتين ، تتمثل الاولى بتجسيد الموت او البعد وماتبرزه من مآسٍ وحزن والم عند وقوع الحاله فيجسد الشاعر مشاعره واحاسيسه بالرثاء وذكرى الفقيد ويكثر من الشكوى ومايرافقها من حنين ودموع.
وبتنوع مواقف الحزن يبر
... Show Moreراجت فكرة تجديد الأدب الأوروبي بشكل عام، والأدب الإسباني بشكل خاص، بداية القرن العشرين و انعكس ذلك من خلال تبني القطيعة مع معتقدات المدرستين الكلاسيكية والرومانسية اللتان هيمنتا على الساحة الأدبية لعقود خلت. لقد ظهرت العديد من المدارس التجديدية التي رفضت القوالب الأدبية و الشعرية القديمة و تبنت نظريات شعرية لم تكن معروفة سابقا, و كان من بين تلك المدارس المدرسة السريالية. في هذا البحث نعطي فكرة عن المدرسة ال
... Show MoreMuslims in Andalusia showed Metzada interested in building their civilization, including the interest in the translation of books in Arabic and Molvat to Latin America and the Castilian language, as well as that of Andalusia is one of the most important scientific centers to transport heritage of Arab and Islamic civilization to Europe, therefore Andalus rulers have tended to translate the Arab Science under the supervision of specialized scientists they know the language and heritage,
Hepatitis, a condition of liver’s inflammation that can be self-limiting or, in certain chances, it may lead to liver cancer, fibrosis or cirrhosis. Hepatitis viruses mainly cause hepatitis in the world. People with hepatitis C have predominant chances to develop diabetes as HCV virus participates in causing type 2 diabetes. HCV virus causes pathogenesis in two ways: it either directly destroys the β cells of pancreas or contributes to the specific autoimmunity of β cells. The present cross sectional study was done in Wazirabad Tahsil of Gujranwala District to analyze the percentage of patients suffering from hepatitis C who had the risk of diabetes mellitus. For this research work, demographic information and data about any other me
... Show MoreBanks face different types of banking risks that limit the performance of its functions and achieve its objectives, including the financial risk that is based on current research into two types including a credit and liquidity risks. And established credit risk due to the possibility of delaying the borrowers to fulfill their obligations to the bank when due or non-payments on according to the terms agreed upon, while liquidity risk arises as a result of the inability of the bank to fund the financial needs, any inability to provide cash to pay its obligations short on credit without achieving tangible loss or the inability to employ the funds properly and show the liquidity risk in the event of inadequate cash inflows to the bank for an
... Show MoreSearch procedures on the treatment research has tended include what cam followers Astaratejaat available to the business organizations to achieve competitive advantage and continued benefits of the form in which the organization can maintain its success in the race competitive and increase production efficiency.
The objectives of the study , the study came with the number of goals and the most important one the knowledge of the relationship and the influence between the variables of the study and review of the latest literature frameworks intellectual and philosophical to the variables of the study and come up with recommendations that could help the organization improve its performance .
... Show MoreCrime is one of the most severe challenges facing States, and strives to find preventive measures, reduce its seriousness, and prevent them; due to developments, crimes have increased, and emerging new patterns of crimes, there is an urgent need to prevent crimes and reduce their effects. Modernizing its punitive system and diverting it to correctional rehabilitative justice to redress the prejudice caused by the crime and rehabilitate the convicted person by using alternative measures to short-term imprisonment. This research emphasizes alternative sanctions' value to minimizing short-term imprisonment penalties and their impact on societal security through several goals like, the negative consequences, justifications, and alternatives
... Show MoreThe research aims at introducing the principles of six sigma and if it had any effect of the dimensions of six sigma to improve the performance of the dentists and the availability of an appropriate environment in the center Specialist respondent to the application of six sigma principles and how to adopt Specialized Center under the dimensions of the six sigma and if there informed enough with the management methodology six sigma, and if you can adopt six sigma as one of the entrances to reduce medical errors. So Search creating six sigma five dimensions and are (the commitment and support of senior management, the focus on the patient, continuous improvement, training and civil, and infrastructure) as a variable int
... Show MoreThis paper deals with the Kufis and basris agreements in Abo Al _ Barakat Al _ anbary’s
work “ Al- Insaf Fi Masael Al - Khilaf.It attempts to settle the disputes and find out the right
views.
The book presents the issnes that the two schools of Kufa and Basra dispute upon and try to
evaluate them so as to support the correct ones .The present researcher has noticed that the
author of the above work was not always right or accurate in picturing a number of issues as
disputable whereas they implicitly shared the same views .Accordingly ,this papor sheds light
on such cases and drew acadernic researchers, attention to the invalidity of Al –anbary’s
misjudged views.