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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of liquidity on the profitability and value of banks listed on Iraq stock market (An analytical study)
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  The purpose of the study is to analyze the extent of the impact of liquidity as an independent variable on profitability as an intermediate variable and the value of banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange as a dependent variable, as the research problem is summarized by the fact that most banks focus on profitability as a phased goal without focusing on maximizing its value as a strategic goal by enhancing the wealth of owners and shareholders. On the long term, the research community is represented by the banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, while the research sample was deliberately chosen, which included three private banks such as Baghdad Commercial Bank, the Iraqi Commercial Bank and the Iraqi Investment Bank, an

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparative study of stylistic kriging and Co - kriging Multivariate on the barley crop in Iraq
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  This paper deals  the prediction of the process of  random spatial data of two properties, the first is called  Primary variables  and the second is called secondary  variables ,   the method  that were used in the  prediction process for this type  of data is technique Co-kriging  , the method is usually used when the number of primary variables  meant to predict for one of its elements is measured in a particular location a few (because of the cost or difficulty of obtaining them) compare with secondary variable which is the number of elements  are available and  highly correlated with primary variables, as was the&nbs

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2017
Journal Name
Auditing & Interior Magazine Of Educational &scientific Studies
Seeds morphological study of different species of Medicago L., Leguminosae (Fabaceae) family in Iraq.
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This research delts with study seven species of seeds and wild varieties wild belonging to the genus Medicago L., these species are: M. constricta Dur., M. coronata (L.) Bartal., M. intertexta (L.) Mill., M. intertexta.var. ciliaris (L.) Hyen., M. laciniata (L.) Mill., M. lupulina L., M. minima (L.) Bartal. and M. sativa L., the research involved characteristics of shapes, dimensions, colors and the nature of the surface ornamentation of seeds and also the hilum site. the seeds forms ranged between crescent, reniform and ovate, in addition there was a clear difference in seeds dimensions in height and width, while, the color has been vary between light brown to brown and dark brown. The nature of the surface ornamentation was smooth, retic

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)
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The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Age and Gender for General Census of the population in Iraq by using nonparametric Bayesian Kernel Estimators
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The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship of public budget deficit on external debt in lraq with in the framework of joint integration of the period (1990 – 2016 )
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Abstract

The term public budget defects became nowadays a chronic, economical phenomenon, almost all the countries weather advanced or development country suffered from it, despite the different visions to economic schools of a thought to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the prevailed opinion that is needed to rule the role of the state by reducing the public spending which led to continuous deficits in public budget and the consequent upon increase in government borrowing, increase taxes on income and wealth, thus weakening the in contrive for private investment which contributed to the increase of in flationary stagnation, it became a duty to state covered by the lack of financial sources

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq for the period (2004-2018):An Analytical Econometric Study
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            The objective of this study is to measure the impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq over the period (2004-2018) by applying a fully corrected square model (FMOLS) Whereas, a set of variables represented by (credit-to-private ratio of GDP, the ratio of money supply in the broad sense of GDP, percentage of bank deposits from GDP) were chosen as indicators for measuring financial development and GDP to measure economic growth.

Major tests have been carried out, such as the stability test (Unite Root Test), the integration test (Cointegration). Results of the study showed that there

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The neology in the Iraqi dialect after the invasion of 2003 and the level of imaginative comprehension: La neología en el dialecto Iraqui tras la invasión de 2003 y el nivel de la comprensión imaginativa
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       The article analyzes the neologisms that arose in the Iraqi dialect after the 2003 US-British invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, according to the theory I advocate: "The Basic Outline of Reference," a developed theory of Arab legacy and cognitive theory, which came out in 1987 in America, so we have used the terminology of cognitive grammar. In this theory it is stated that the reference is the interaction between four components: perception, imagination, imaginative comprehension and the linguistic sign or symbolization (the neological word in this article), which are closely related, so that none of them can be lacking, because they constitute a holistic whole that belongs to a deeper level. Let us

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
ما العدالة في إستقطاع ظريبة الدخل على رواتب وإجور العاملين في القطاع العام بطريقة الإستقطاع المباشر في العراق
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The income tax that is imposed on the salaries & wages of employees  in the governmental fields &the companies of public & mixed sectors by direct deduction in a manner similar to the employees in the private sector according to the order NO.49 of 2004 issued by Coalition Provision Authority in Iraq , from the validity of Security Council resolutions NO. 1482 of 2003, &1511 of 2004.                                                        &nbsp

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Organizational Factors Role in Limited Talent Management Strategies Field Research in Number of Talent Schools in Iraq)
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Abstract:

 The purpose of this research is measuring relationship level and impact between Organizational Factors and their Dimensions (Leadership, Organizational Structure, Organizational Culture), and Talent Management Strategies (Talent Recruitment,Talent performance management, Talent Development, Talent Retention ). it was relied on the Questionnaire form as a basic instrument in collecting the Data by using (Likert) instrument ,which was distributed on the research Sample which number was (100) individual included (Managers of schools, assistants  (scientific and Administration ) and teachers in Four schools of Talents in Iraq (Baghdad , AL-Nagaf , AL-Basra, Mesan). All fo

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