تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract :
The research aims to diagnose some of the negative phenomena
( Counterfiting , Pettifogging , Embezzlement ) that have been detected over the past ( 2010 – 2014 ), a fixed-term part of the national strategy for the fight against corruption launched by the Joint Council for the fight against corruption in Iraq and measuring the application of government control according to the American standard GAO standards and identifying the potential for the application of those standards gap. It has been collecting data and information of special issues of corruption reports and meeting with (42) employees and the use of a checklist has been prepared for thi
This research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc
The logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables. The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.
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preparation process of performance evaluation in organizations is of extreme importance, and under development in organizations and the opening of markets and technological developments in the industry and heightened competition among industrial organizations imposed systems are built for performance give a clear picture about performance and competition, And centered research problem in answering the following questions: Is performance evaluation system is available in Wasit State Company for Textile Industries(Research sample ), This research aims to assess the performance of policies and programs in the company, according to guide performance evaluation of programs and policies prepared by the Dutch Cou
... Show MoreIraq economy suffered, nor , still many difficulties and problems , including oil derivatives crisis that emerged in 2004 and was the most prominent features of the inability of local production to meet the needs of the increasing growth of consumption, the crisis has cast a shadow on the growth of national in general, and citizen living in particular. Therefore, the real test of crisis and challenge to the capacity of government agencies to manage the crisis and control and reduce its harmful effects, which disappear in a region or sector, even begin to appear in another, given the multiplicity and complexity of third-party solution for remedying the negative consequences of deliberate.
Experiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le
... Show MoreThe social contract represents a set of laws and determinants agreed upon by a group of individuals in order to organize society for the better.This agreement guarantees them to live in peace according to the pre-agreed laws, and on the basis of that, it represents the key to resolving the crisis relations between the state and society, and this is what prompted Iraqi society to move towards the formulation of a new social contract through popular protest movements in 2019.To overcome the old social contract that shook the trust between the state and society as a result of its negative outputs at various political, economic and social levels, and many problems emerged that hindered the process of building the social contra
... Show Moreيستهدف البحث الحالي التعرف إلى 1 .بناء مقياس سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 2 .مستوى توافر سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 3 .داللة الفروق اإلحصائية في سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة ً في الع ارق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعا
... Show MoreThe research problem lies in identifying the challenges facing spreading the culture of peace in Iraq, and the most important factors of its instability from the point of view of leaders and intellectual elites.The research derives its importance from the fact that the peace imposed by justice leads to a stable Iraq and a prosperous future.
The study aims to identify the most prominent challenges and obstacles created by wars and faced the process of spreading the culture of peace and instability in Iraq, and to shed light on the reasons leading to the employment of the capabilities of community leaders in spreading the culture of peace.The objective of the current research is to identify the challenges of spreading the culture o
... Show MoreThe study area is witnessing divergence where I am North wind North East wind as we find that the north wind is getting replicated as we move from the south, The reason can be attributed to the nature of the surface of the region, with at least repeat this wind the northern region to the presence of mountain ranges, while we find that energizes the surface in the center and south helped to increase repeat this wind gusts, It also finds that the North wind East prevail in the northern region and least replicated as we move from the north to the south and to the fact that North stations are within blowing this wind sites for the circles near the display of high pressure located centers to the north-east, north and distancing itself from pa
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