In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation)  structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of  these procedures and compare them using generated data.

Ursolic acid (UA, 3 ?-hydroxy-urs-12-en-28-oic acid) are isomeric triterpenic acids. The high quantities of pentacyclic triterpenoids in Scabiosa species seems to be obvious and there is an evidence that most of pentacyclic triterpenoids that have been isolated are saponins. This is one of the most important characteristic of the genus Scabiosa, the main aglycones are ursolic acid and oleanolic acid. In the current study, isolation from the aerial part and roots of Scabiosa palaestina L. was performed using Preparative HPLC. Furthermore, detection and quantitation of ursolic acid was performed by high performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC). The identification of isolated triterpenoid involves two methods including FT-IR coupl

The aim of the research is to show the importance of international auditing standards and the effect of this in reducing the incidence of financial irregularities in government service units and how to address them. The research adopted the descriptive, analytical and inductive approaches. In the analytical approach, a questionnaire model was designed and distributed to internal auditors in some of the subordinate government units. For the Ministry of Health, appropriate statistical methods were used that showed the extent of the general understanding of the internal auditor’s relationship with international standards and the impact of this on preserving public money and the role of the internal auditor in detecting financial irregulariti

Through the researchers' acquaintance with the previous studies, the problem was identified as that the preparation of training curricula in all its units must be based on accurate scientific foundations. Positively affect the type of attack and its implication in the presence of correlational relations, whether direct or indirect, i.e., precedence in training and in preparing units Therefore, the researcher decided to build a causal model to know the relationships to show the best model of the direct straight attack. The study aimed to build a causal model for the most important physical measurements and kinetic capabilities of the direct straight attack in the research sample. The two researchers used the descriptive approach in t

In this paper the queuing system (M/Er/1/N) has been considered in equilibrium. The method of stages introduced by Erlang has been used. The system of equations which governs the equilibrium probabilities of various stages has been given. For general N the probability of j stages of service are left in the system, has been introduced. And the probability for the empty system has been calculated in the explicit form.

This study numerically intends to evaluate the effects of arc-shaped fins on the melting capability of a triplex-tube confinement system filled with phase-change materials (PCMs). In contrast to situations with no fins, where PCM exhibits relatively poor heat response, in this study, the thermal performance is modified using novel arc-shaped fins with various circular angles and orientations compared with traditional rectangular fins. Several inline and staggered layouts are also assessed to maximize the fin’s efficacy. The effect of the nearby natural convection is further investigated by adding a fin to the bottom of the heat-storage domain. Additionally, the Reynolds number and temperature of the heat-transfer fluid (HTF) are e

Among the available chaotic modulation schemes, differential chaos shift keying (DSCK) offers the perfect noise performance. The power consumption of DCSK is high since it sends chaotic signal in both of 1 and 0 transmission, so it does not represent the optimal choice for some applications like indoor wireless sensing where power consumption is a critical issue. In this paper a novel noncoherent chaotic communication scheme called differential chaos on-off keying (DCOOK) is proposed as a solution of this problem. With the proposed scheme, the DCOOK signal have a structure similar to chaos on-off keying (COOK) scheme with improved performance in noisy and multipath channels by introducing the concept of differential coherency used in DCS

This study aims to enhance the RC5 algorithm to improve encryption and decryption speeds in devices with limited power and memory resources. These resource-constrained applications, which range in size from wearables and smart cards to microscopic sensors, frequently function in settings where traditional cryptographic techniques because of their high computational overhead and memory requirements are impracticable. The Enhanced RC5 (ERC5) algorithm integrates the PKCS#7 padding method to effectively adapt to various data sizes. Empirical investigation reveals significant improvements in encryption speed with ERC5, ranging from 50.90% to 64.18% for audio files and 46.97% to 56.84% for image files, depending on file size. A substanti