The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

problem of the research is the decline of the role of urban space with time as an influential system in societal relations. The research aims to define indicators for achieving social interaction in the city, and to determine indicators for achieving integration in the urban space, and to study the relationship between the integration of urban space and community interaction over time. the research assumed that by distinguishing the social interaction space from the urban space and developing urban spaces in order to be truly interactive spaces, this will help us achieve social interaction and build a positive relationship between them, which enables us to achieve integration within the urban spaces leading to social interaction. Because

The whole world and the Arab world, especially an important part of this international system, is undergoing a radical transformation at all levels. This mosaic of political, economic, social and military relations and alliances, whether based on the special interests of the major Powers or on the basis of mutual interests, The major transformations to social, economic, political and military conflict and these transformations still bear more surprises, at all levels, nothing remains constant, all changed, relations changed and alliances changed and loyalties fell and the principles of the M changed and the spectacular imperial economies collapsed and the will of the masses was no longer fixed.

Given that the Crimean and Congo hemorrhagic fever is one of the deadly viral diseases that occur seasonally due to the activity of the carrier “tick,” studying and developing a mathematical model simulating this illness are crucial. Due to the delay in the disease’s incubation time in the sick individual, the paper involved the development of a mathematical model modeling the transmission of the disease from the carrier to humans and its spread among them. The major objective is to comprehend the dynamics of illness transmission so that it may be controlled, as well as how time delay affects this. The discussion of every one of the solution’s qualitative attributes is included. According to the established basic reproductio