The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of addition of surface treated silicon dioxide Nano filler (SiO2) on some properties of heat cured acrylic resin denture base material (PMMA). The properties were impact strength, transvers strength, and surface hardness. Materials and methods: In addition to controlled group SiO2 powder was added to PMMA powder by weight in three different percentages 3%, 5% and 7%, mixed by probe ultra-sonication machine.120 specimens were constructed and divided into 3 groups according to the test (each group consist of 40 specimens) and each group was subdivided into 4 sub-groups according to the percentage of added SiO2 (finally each subgroup consist of 10 specimens). The tests conducte

The technical of Flame Thermal Spray had been used in producing a cermet
composite based on powders of stabilized zirconium oxide containing amount of
Yatteria oxide (ZrO2- 8Y2O3) reiforced by minerals powders of bonding material
(Ni-Cr- Al- Y) in different rates of additions (25, 35, 50) on stainless steel base type
(304) after preparing it by the way of Grit Blasting.
Before heat treatment, the coated cermet layers were characterized for porosity
and electric resistivity. All samples were heat treated in vacuum furnace at different
temperature and times. The physical tests had been operated after heat treatment
and gave best results especially porosity, which found to be reduced dramatically
and producing hig

(Cu1-x,Agx)2ZnSnSe4 alloys have been fabricated with different Ag content(x=0, 0.1, and 0.2) successfully from their elements. Thin films of these alloys have been deposited on coring glass substrate at room temperature by thermal evaporation technique under vacuum of 10-5Torr with thickness of 800nm and deposition rate of 0.53 nm/sec. Later, films have been annealed in vacuum at (373, and 473)K, for one hour. The crystal structure of fabricated alloys and as deposited thin films had been examined by XRD analysis, which confirms the formation of tetragonal phase in [112] direction, and no secondary phases are founded. The shifting of main polycrystalline peak (112) to lower Bragg’s angle as compared to Cu2ZnSnSe4 angle refers to incorpora

The effect of solution heat treatment on the mechanical properties of Aluminum-Copper alloy. (2024-T3) by the rolling process is investigated. The solution heat treatment was implemented by heating the sheets to 480 C° and quenching them by water; then forming by rolling for many passes. And then natural aging is done for one month. Mechanical properties (tensile strength and hardness) are evaluated and the results are compared with the metal without treatment during the rolling process. ANSYS analysis is used to show the stresses distribution in the sheet during the rolling process.  It has been seen that good mechanical properties are evident in the alloy without heat treatment due to the strain hardening and also the mechanical

This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

This study delves into the realm of advanced cooling techniques by examining the performance of a two-stage parallel flow indirect evaporative cooling system enhanced with aspen pads in the challenging climate of Baghdad. The objective was to achieve average air dry bulb temperatures (43 ^oC) below the ambient wet bulb temperatures (24.95 ^oC) with an average relative humidity of 23%, aiming for unparalleled cooling efficiency. The research experiment was carried out in the urban environment of Baghdad, characterized by high temperature conditions. The investigation focused on the potential of the two-stage parallel flow setup, combined with the cooling capability of aspen pads, to surpass the limitat

The effect of time (or corrosion products formation) on corrosion rates of carbon steel pipe in aerated 0.1N NaCl
solution under turbulent flow conditions is investigated. Tests are conducted using electrochemical polarization
technique by determining the limiting current density of oxygen reduction in Reynolds number range of 15000 to 110000
and temperature range of 30 to 60oC. The effect of corrosion products formation on the friction factor is studied and
discussed. Corrosion process is analyzed as a mass transfer operation and the mass transfer theory is employed to
express the corrosion rate. The results are compared with many proposed models particularly those based on the
concept of analogy among momentum, heat,