In this study, the spreading of the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is formulated mathematically. The objective of this study is to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19. In fact, to stop the spread of COVID-19, the vaccine of the disease is needed. However, in the absence of the vaccine, people must have to obey curfew and social distancing and follow the media alert coverage rule. In order to maintain these alternative factors, we must obey the modeling rule. Therefore, the impact of curfew, media alert coverage, and social distance between the individuals on the outbreak of disease is considered. Five ordinary differential equations of the first-order are used to represent the model. The solution properties of the system are discussed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number are computed. The local and global stabilities are studied. The occurrence of local bifurcation near the disease-free equilibrium point is investigated. Numerical simulation is carried out in applying the model to the sample of the Iraqi population through solving the model using the Runge–Kutta fourth-order method with the help of Matlab. It is observed that the complete application of the curfew and social distance makes the basic reproduction number less than one and hence prevents the outbreak of disease. However, increasing the media alert coverage does not prevent the outbreak of disease completely, instead of that it reduces the spread, which means the disease is under control, by reducing the basic reproduction number and making it an approachable one.
Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
... Show MoreThe undetected error probability is an important measure to assess the communication reliability provided by any error coding scheme. Two error coding schemes namely, Joint crosstalk avoidance and Triple Error Correction (JTEC) and JTEC with Simultaneous Quadruple Error Detection (JTEC-SQED), provide both crosstalk reduction and multi-bit error correction/detection features. The available undetected error probability model yields an upper bound value which does not give accurate estimation on the reliability provided. This paper presents an improved mathematical model to estimate the undetected error probability of these two joint coding schemes. According to the decoding algorithm the errors are classified into patterns and their decoding
... Show MoreConstruction contractors usually undertake multiple construction projects simultaneously. Such a situation involves sharing different types of resources, including monetary, equipment, and manpower, which may become a major challenge in many cases. In this study, the financial aspects of working on multiple projects at a time are addressed and investigated. The study considers dealing with financial shortages by proposing a multi-project scheduling optimization model for profit maximization, while minimizing the total project duration. Optimization genetic algorithm and finance-based scheduling are used to produce feasible schedules that balance the finance of activities at any time w
Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are used as an efficient and effective method of exchanging patients’ health information with doctors and other key stakeholders in the health sector to obtain improved patient treatment decisions and diagnoses. As a result, questions regarding the security of sensitive user data are highlighted. To encourage people to move their sensitive health records to cloud networks, a secure authentication and access control mechanism that protects users’ data should be established. Furthermore, authentication and access control schemes are essential in the protection of health data, as numerous responsibilities exist to ensure security and privacy in a network. So, the main goal of our s
... Show MoreGas hydrate formation is considered one of the major problems facing the oil and gas industry as it poses a significant threat to the production, transportation and processing of natural gas. These solid structures can nucleate and agglomerate gradually so that a large cluster of hydrate is formed, which can clog flow lines, chokes, valves, and other production facilities. Thus, an accurate predictive model is necessary for designing natural gas production systems at safe operating conditions and mitigating the issues induced by the formation of hydrates. In this context, a thermodynamic model for gas hydrate equilibrium conditions and cage occupancies of N2 + CH4 and N2 + CO4 gas mix
ABSTRACT:
Interest rates are one of the important aspects that affect the banking business directly, which is characterized by unstable dynamic dynamics, which must be viewed on a daily and continuous basis through the macroeconomic view, which directly affects the bank’s income realized from loans as interest received or interest paid on its deposits as an expense. Hence the earnings per share. The relationship between interest rates and between net income and earnings per share was measured and a correlation was found between them, and then the effect between them was measured using regression equations and they were applied and th
... Show MoreAge and growth of Varicorhinus damascinus (Val.) in Tigris river at Salahuldin province have been investigated. Monthly samples were taken during the period from September 1999 to August 2000, using small-meshed gill nets. The age data showed that there were six age groups and the dominant age groups were (III – IV) for both sexes. The results of the present study revealed that the increment in length of V. damascinus at the sites of study showed a tendency to decrease with the increase in age, after the third year of life in both sexes. The length-weight relationship of males and females were calculated and demonstrated in a straight line logarithmic formula, as follows: Log W = 1.5404 + 2.6885 log L for males r = 0.95 (P > 0.05) Log
... Show MoreThe problem of the research lies in special motor abilities training programs like the balance that positively affect coordination between the nervous system and muscles. These training programs did not get enough attention from athletes especially young athletes; their training was restricted to physical abilities like strength, speed, and endurance instead. The research aimed at designing an apparatus for developing athletes’ balance in national centers for gifted/ ministry of youth and sport so as to provide a measurement for coached in this field. The results showed that the designed apparatus have a positive effect on developing the subjects’ balance in boxing and basketball athletes.
A total of 60 cotton swabs are collected from patients suffering from burn wound and surgical site infections admitted to Baghdad Teaching Hospital and Burn Specialist Hospital in Baghdad city during 9/2013 to 11/2013. All cotton swabs are cultured initially on blood agar and MacConkey agar and subjected for standard bacteriological procedures for bacteriological diagnosis. Twenty samples out of sixty are identified as Pseudomonas aeruginosa by conventional methods. The results of antibiotic susceptibility test illustrate that the antibiotics resistance rate of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates is as follows:100% (2020) for ceftriaxone, cefepime and carbencillin, 70% (14/20) for amikacin, 65%(13/20) for tobramycin, ceftazidim and gentamycin,
... Show MoreBackground: Periodontal diseases (PD) are common chronic inflammatory diseases caused by pathogenic microorganisms colonizing the gingival area and inducing local and systemic elevations of pro-inflammatory cytokines resulting in tissue destruction by a destructive inflammatory process. Stress was considered as one of the important risk factors that cause many inflammatory diseases including PD. The purpose of this study wasto determines and compares clinical periodontal parameters (PLI, GI and BOP), stress level and salivary IL-1? level among dental students before, during and after mid-year exam, also to find the correlation among stress, IL-1? and clinical periodontal parameters. Materials and methods: The sample was consisted of 24 dent
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