In this study, the spreading of the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is formulated mathematically. The objective of this study is to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19. In fact, to stop the spread of COVID-19, the vaccine of the disease is needed. However, in the absence of the vaccine, people must have to obey curfew and social distancing and follow the media alert coverage rule. In order to maintain these alternative factors, we must obey the modeling rule. Therefore, the impact of curfew, media alert coverage, and social distance between the individuals on the outbreak of disease is considered. Five ordinary differential equations of the first-order are used to represent the model. The solution properties of the system are discussed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number are computed. The local and global stabilities are studied. The occurrence of local bifurcation near the disease-free equilibrium point is investigated. Numerical simulation is carried out in applying the model to the sample of the Iraqi population through solving the model using the Runge–Kutta fourth-order method with the help of Matlab. It is observed that the complete application of the curfew and social distance makes the basic reproduction number less than one and hence prevents the outbreak of disease. However, increasing the media alert coverage does not prevent the outbreak of disease completely, instead of that it reduces the spread, which means the disease is under control, by reducing the basic reproduction number and making it an approachable one.
Abstract:
Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.
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It is very necessary for the political theater to be within the space of every theatrical performance, so that the theater carries the diverse and enlightened values and cultures of this world. political theatre. In the first chapter, the researcher dealt with (the methodological framework), which includes the research problem identified by the researcher with the following question (the functional diversity of the directorial vision in the political theater)
Importance, purpose, limits and seal by defining terminology.
In the second chapter, the researcher dealt with the theoretical framework on two topics, the first (transformations of directorial vision in theatrical performance) and the second topic (aesthetic experiences i
This paper displays the effect of uncoated and coated chopped carbon fibers with alumina Al2O3 or Tri calcium phosphate (TCP) on the impact strength of acrylic poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA) denture base resin. To improve bonding between carbon fibers and coating materials powders, the surface of carbon fibers has been treated with Para amino benzoic acid (C9H10N2O3) and poly vinyl alcohol (PVA) was also used. The morphology of the coating layers has been examined by field emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM). From the results, PMMA reinforced with uncoated chopped carbon fiber has high impact strength value but still have bad aesthetic. Samples prepared b
... Show MoreAmong the issues that preoccupied ancient and modern grammarians is the phenomenon of grammatical disagreement among grammarians and their differences in many grammatical issues that many of them go back to the phenomenon of dialectical difference, so this filled our thinking with a lot of things that led us to look at the side of the reasons for this grammatical difference, and here lies the significance of research to know that it is a linguistic phenomenon dealing with the living language used among the Arabs and linguistic phenomena that reflect linguistic reality as well. Thus our chagrin determination in research and investigation in this issue is the scarcity of dialectical studies at the compositional grammar side, and the lack o
... Show MoreAbstract [email protected] Background: Acute Traumatic Stress Disorder (ATSD) might be complicated by Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Psychological First Aid (PFA) said to be helpful to reduce the possibility of reduction of ASD and PTSD symptoms. PFA is simple procedure to deliver help & support to victims, may be by some one close to him, quietly and professionally. Iraq has and is still experiencing, continuous traumatic stresses. ATSD is especially seen in war such as during the Gulf War, Embargo and nowadays under the current American occupation. With the extreme shortage of recourses and the given late priority to psychological problems and intervention have disastrous consequences on the psycho-social wellbeing of peop
... Show MoreTechnology is one of the important influences in the development of professions in general and the profession of tax auditing and examination in particular because of the importance of this section in the General Tax Authority because of the service it provides is auditing the financial accounts provided to the department by the taxpayers to ensure the correctness of revenue and the achievement of tax justice. Where the research aims at the importance of using electronic accounting information systems in developing the work of the Tax Audit and Examination Department, to reduce the difficulties that the department may be using using manual systems, which is the need for time and effort to accomplish it, and to develop methods and procedu
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to build a simulation model by using HEC-RAS software to simulate the reality of water movement in the main river of Basra City (South of Iraq) which is known as Siraji-Khoura River. The main objective of the simulation is to detect areas where the water cycle is interrupted in some stations of the river stream, as this river has become an outlet for the disposal of sewage, leading to pollution and causing weakness in some sections of the river & obstructing the water cycle that takes place between this river and Shatt al – Arab river. A field survey data of the river and its banks were adopted to derive the grades, longitudinal and cross sections of the river, these data included three-dimensional coordinates
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The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati
... Show MoreMultilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m
... Show MoreIn the present study, activated carbon supported metal oxides was prepared for thiophene removal from model fuel (Thiophene in n-hexane) using adsorptive desulfurization technique. Commercial activated carbon was loaded individually with copper oxide in the form of Cu2O/AC. A comparison of the kinetic and isotherm models of the sorption of thiophene from model fuel was made at different operating conditions including adsorbent dose, initial thiophene concentration and contact time. Various adsorption rate constants and isotherm parameters were calculated. Results indicated that the desulfurization was enhanced when copper was loaded onto activated carbon surface. The highest desulfurization percent for Cu2O/AC and o
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