يتناول هـذا البحث بالتحليل التفاعل و التنسيق بين السياستين الماليـة و النقديـة و اثر هذا التفاعل و التنسيق على الاستقـرار و النمـو الاقتصـادي، و كيف ان الآثار المالية للسياسة النقدية قد تحفز الإجراءات الخاصة بالسياسة النقدية و معالجة الآثـار الجانبيـة و طبيعـة التفاعل و الارتداد بين إجراءات كلتا السياستين و أثرهما في التـوازن الاقتصـادي العــام، و تم في ثنايا البحث توضيح مسوغات التنسيق و مدى ضرورة ذلك بهدف معالجة الاختلالات في النشاط الاقتصادي عبر توأمة الاجراءات النقدية و المالية، و قد تجسد هذا التنسيق و التفاعل بين السياستين و آثارهما المتبادلة المتسقة و غير المتسقة عند دراسة التوازن الاقتصادي العام و أركانه المتمثلة في التـوازن في السوق النقدي و التوازن في السوق السلعي (Lm- Is ) و ان التوازن النقدي و السلعي مقدمات اساسية الى التوازن الاقتصادي العام ذو المنشأ و البعد الكينزي الذي وضع اساسياته فكرة التوازن الاقتصاديين هيكيس و هانسن في تحليلهما للتوازن الكينزي للاقتصاد ( نموذج الدخل البسيط ) و قد تم تطوير هذا النموذج الى نموذج ( Lm-Is ) بفضل إسهاماته النظرية و التي لخصت التعادل بين الطلب الكلي النقدي و العرض الكلي السلعي اذ تلعب السياسة النقدية دورا مؤثرا و حساسا في الطلب الكلي النقدي ( القيمة النقدية للسلع و الخدمات ) كما تؤثر السياسة المالية بشكل فاعل في العرض الكلي السلعي ( المحتوى السلعي للنقود ) و ان كلتا السياستين بأدواتهما و إجراءاتهما المختلفة تترك تأثيرات متبادلة متجاوبة حول الهدف او تأثيرات متبادلة مرتدة حول الهدف المرسوم، و ان التوازن الاقتصادي المستقر هو حالة قابلة الى اعادة التوازن في حالة تعرض هذا التوازن الى اختلال بفعل قوى ذاتية و ان التوازن الاقتصادي غير المستقر هو حالة غير قابلة الى اعادة التوازن و انما تبقى في طيات التأرجح بين اللاتوازن و الاستقرار على معدلات اقتصادية معينة للاستخدام و الناتج و الأسعار.
Abstract:
The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of
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The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
... Show MoreThe study aims to test the relationship of work pressure to its dimensions (role conflict, ambiguity of role, workload and nature of work) as an independent variable and its effect on organizational alienation by its dimensions (disability, lack of power, indifference, animosity, social isolation and self-alienation) (Restraint and confidence in negation, initiative, adaptation and living conscience) as a mediator variable, in some faculties of Baghdad University of Science (Medicine and Engineering) and Humanity (Education and Literature). The data was collected on the practical side, which was applied randomly (306) of the teachers and teachers of the colleges (56) items, which included the main research variables
... Show MoreThe research aims to form a clear theoretical philosophy and perceptions about strategic Entrepreneurship through the relationship between high Involvement management practices, the basis in creating that leadership and high-performance work systems as a support tool in achieving them according to the proposals (Hitt et al, 2011), in an attempt to generalize theoretical philosophy and put forward how to apply it within The Iraqi environment, and on this basis the problem of the current research was launched to bridge the knowledge gap between the previous proposals and the possibility of their application, aiming to identify the practices of high Involvement management and the possibility of high-performance work systems and thei
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There has been a heated controversy over the role the financial policy plays and how sufficient it is in affording the financial burden. This burden is known as the operational current expenses which the governments of various countries mainly afford, despite the discrepancy in the government’s economic policy. After the deterioration and deficit in the state budget in all countries nowadays, it was necessary to find an appropri
... Show MoreThis research aims to study the important of the effect of analysis of covariance manner for one of important of design for multifactor experiments, which called split-blocks experiments design (SBED) to deal the problem of extended measurements for a covariate variable or independent variable (X) with data of response variable or dependent variable Y in agricultural experiments that contribute to mislead the result when analyze data of Y only. Although analysis of covariance with discussed in experiments with common deign, but it is not found information that it is discussed with split-Blocks experiments design (SBED) to get rid of the impact a covariance variable. As part application actual field experiment conducted, begun at
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The current research aims to identify the perceptual speed of the university students as well as to identify the differences in the level of perceptual speed for the university students according to the variables of (male, female) specialization (scientific, human) university (Baghdad, Mustansiriya). Additionally, the research aims to identify the prevalence of emotional pattern and to identify the relationship between perceptual speed and the emotional patterns among university students. The researcher designed a questionnaire to measure the Emotional Patterns based on Jerome Freedman perspective. As for perceptual speed, the researcher adopted French, Extrom and Price scale (1963), which was tran
... Show MoreAttention increased to the topic of academic accreditation by the university as a modern philosophy by which to improve its performance and provide high-quality education. Universities and colleges in general and Iraqi universities and colleges in particular have begun interest in accreditation and desire to get it. So starting from the pursuit of the Administration and Economics College / Baghdad University in obtaining accreditation of Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) The research is present which aims to determine the level of application (AACSB) International standards at the College of Administration and Economics / Baghdad University in preparation to get its accreditation in the future. Researc
... Show Moreيعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غي
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