Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract Objectives: Malocclusion was and remains one of the most common problems which affects the psyche and social status of the individual, so the estimation of the malocclusion severity and needs a percentage of orthodontic treatment of Iraqi patients is the aim of this study. Method: A randomly selected 150 pairs of study models (48 male and 102 female) were involved in this study for patients attending an orthodontic clinic at College of Dentistry/ University of Baghdad seeking for treatment. The DAI scores were collected according to WHO guidelines directly from the study model with a digital caliper, score was calculated using the regression equation of 10 occlusal traits. The dental casts were classified into four groups to determ
... Show More
The research aimed mainly to discover the effectiveness of the (PEOE) model in teaching science to develop the skills of generating and evaluating information and the emotional side of the scientific sense of the intermediate first grade students. An experimental approach with a quasi-experimental design called pre-test and post-test control design was used. The research sample consisted of (60) students, who were selected in a random cluster method, (30) students in the experimental group studied the unit "The Nature of Material" using the (PEOE) model, and (30) students in the control group studied according to the prevailing method of teaching. The research materials and tools were represented in: a teacher's guide for teaching the un
... Show MoreThis research aims to examine the effectiveness of a teaching strategy based on the cognitive model of Daniel in the development of achievement and the motivation of learning the school mathematics among the third intermediate grade students in the light of their study of "Systems of Linear Equations”. The research was conducted in the first semester (1439/1440AH), at Saeed Ibn Almosaieb Intermediate School, in Arar, Saudi Arabia. A quasi-experimental design has been used. In addition, a (pre & post) achievement test (20 Questions) and a (pre & post) scale of learning motivation to the school mathematics (25 Items) have been applied on two groups: a control group (31Students), and an experimental group (29 Students). The resear
... Show MoreThe present work aimed to study the efficiency of nanofiltration (NF) and reverse osmosis (RO) membrane for heavy metal removal from wastewater and study the factors affecting the performance of these two membranes: feed concentrations for heavy metal ions, pressure, and flow rate. The experimental results showed, heavy metals concentration in permeate increase with raise in feed concentrations, decline with increase in flow rate. The raise of pressure, heavy metals concentration decreases for RO membrane, but for NF membrane the concentration decrease and then at high pressure increase. The rejection percentage for chromium in NF and RO is 99.7% and 99.9%, for copper is 98.4% and 99.3%, for zinc is 97.9% and 99.5%, for nickel is 97.2% and
... Show More
(3)
Electric Quadrupole transitions are calculated for beryllium isotopes (9, 10, 12 and 14). Calculations with configuration mixing shell model usually under estimate the measured E2 transition strength. Although the consideration of a large basis no core shell model with 2ℏtruncations for 9,10,12 and14 where all major shells s, p, sd are used, fail to describe the measured reduced transition strength without normalizing the matrix elements with effective charges to compensate for the discarded space. Instead of using constant effective charges, excitations out of major shell space are taken into account through a microscopic theory which allows particle–hole excitations from the core and model space orbits to all higher orbits
... Show More
This research consists of two parts, the first part concern with analyzing the collected data of BOD and COD values in discharge waste water from Al-Dora refinery during 2010 to find the relationship between these two variables The results indicates that there
is a high correlation between BOD and COD when using a natural logarithm model (0.86 ln(COD)) with correlation coefficient of 0.98. This relationship is useful in predicting the BOD value using the COD value. The second part includes analyzing collected data from the same site in order to find a relationsip between BOD and other parameters COD, Phenol(phe), Temperature(T), Oil, Sulphat(SO4),pH and Total dissolved solids( TDS) discharged from the refinery. The results indicated
(1)
The aim of this study was to determine the effect on using the McCarthy Model (4MAT) for developing creative writing skills and reflective thinking among undergraduate students. The quasi-experimental approach was adopted. And, in order to achieve the study objective, the educational content of Teaching Ethics (Approach 401), for the plan for the primary grades teacher preparation program was dealt with by using a teaching program based on the McCarthy Model (4MAT) was used.
The study which was done had been based on the academic achievement test for creative writing skills, and the reflective thinking test. The validity and reliability of the study tools were also confirmed. The study was applied to a sample consisting of
... Show MoreThis study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator’s refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points’ local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the per
... Show More
(2)
A developed model has been put for the hypothesis of capturing moons in explaining the origin of Jupiter moons, and study the change of the orbital properties of these satellites as well as the distance from the planet. Jupiter moons were divided into two types according to their physical and orbital properties, they are the moons , which are formed from the same material as the planet, so it was named the original moons ,while the moons that have been captured from the surrounding space was renamed exotic moons . And the moons of exotic origin asteroid belt and the Kuiper belt in the region which is behind Neptune, the origin of each clique of moons is an asteroid fragmented after colliding previously with another body and
... Show More
The research aims to investigate the existence of a direct causal relationship between selected agricultural variables: agricultural output (as a representative of growth in the agricultural sector), agricultural terms of trade as a completely new variable in agricultural studies in recent years, agricultural labour which is an important part in the total workforce for Iraq, and finally, agricultural investment because of its importance and vital role in the production process, creating job opportunities, and then raising the level of employment, then it's role to achieving agricultural growth and development. For this purpose, the researchers used the Toda-Yamamoto causality methodology for a time series covering from 1990 to 2019. The res
... Show More