Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the bayes estimators, for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution under two different loss functions such as, the squared error loss function, the exponential loss function (proposed), based different double prior distributions represented as erlang with inverse levy prior, erlang with non-informative prior, inverse levy with non-informative prior and erlang with chi-square prior.
The simulation method was fulfilled to obtain the results, including the estimated values and the mean square error (MSE) for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution, for different cases for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distr
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Reduction of noise and vibration in spur gear experimentally by using asymmetric teeth profiles with tip relief was presented. Both of classical (symmetric) and asymmetric (with and without tip relief) spur gears are used in this work. Gear test rig was constructed to achieve torsional vibration measuring, and two modified cutters are designed and manufactured to achieve tooth profile modifications. First to cut asymmetric gear tooth with pressure angles (14.5o/25 o) without tip relief for loaded and unloaded tooth sides respectively, and second to cut asymmetric gear tooth with pressure angles (14.5o/25 o) for loaded and unloaded tooth sides respectively with tip relief to ach
... Show MoreThe aim of this study to identity using Daniel's model and Driver’s model in learning a kinetic chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for female students. The researchers used the experimental method to design equivalent groups with a preand post-test, and the research community was identified with the students of the third stage in the college for the academic year 2020-2021 .The subject was, (3) class were randomly selected, so (30) students distributed into (3) groups). has been conducted pretesting after implementation of the curriculum for (4) weeks and used the statistical bag of social sciences(SPSS)to process the results of the research and a set of conclusions was reached, the most important of which is t
... Show MoreThis paper aims to give an overview of acculturation in the literature by means of its explicit definitions, main characteristics, and categorical process. It also foreshadows the significance of acquiring novice culture with particular connection to second language acquisition. Schumann and John Berry underscored acculturation each with its own model of acculturation. In the case of this review, you will realize that Schumann's two main aspects are firmly rooted in berry's model of acculturation as an exclusive description in relation to second language acquisition. Steven Krashen outlined acquiring language from the intellectual and linguistic view of learning, whereas Micheal Long demanded for communication in social perspective. It has
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The neutron, proton, and matter densities of the ground state of the proton-rich 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei were analyzed using the binary cluster model (BCM). Two density parameterizations were used in BCM calculations namely; Gaussian (GS) and harmonic oscillator (HO) parameterizations. According to the calculated results, it found that the BCM gives a good description of the nuclear structure for above proton-rich exotic nuclei. The elastic form factors of the unstable 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei and those of their stable isotopes 27Al and 31P are studied by the plane-wave Born approximation. The main difference between the elastic form factors of unstable nuclei and the
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Many organizations today are interesting to implementing lean manufacturing principles that should enable them to eliminating the wastes to reducing a manufacturing lead time. This paper concentrates on increasing the competitive level of the company in globalization markets and improving of the productivity by reducing the manufacturing lead time. This will be by using the main tool of lean manufacturing which is value stream mapping (VSM) to identifying all the activities of manufacturing process (value and non-value added activities) to reducing elimination of wastes (non-value added activities) by converting a manufacturing system to pull instead of push by applying some of pull system strategies a
... Show MoreThe game theory has been applied to all situations where agents’ (people or companies) actions are utility-maximizing, and the collaborative offshoot of game theory has proven to be a robust tool for creating effective collaboration strategies in a broad range of applications. In this paper first, we employ the Banzhaf values to show the potential cost to waste producers in the case of a cooperation and to reduce the overall costs of processing non-recyclable waste during cooperation between producers. Secondly, we propose an application of the methodology to study a case for five waste producers' waste management in the Al-Mahmudiya factory with the aim of displaying the potential cost to waste producers in case of cooperatio
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Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problem
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Integrated project delivery is collaboratively applying the skills and knowledge of all participants to optimize the project's results, increase owner value, decrease waste, and maximize efficiency during the design, fabrication, and construction processes. This study aims to determine IPD criteria positively impacting value engineering. To do this, the study has considered 9 main criteria according to PMP classification that already covers all project phases and 183 sub-criteria obtained from theoretical study and expert interviews (fieldwork). In this study, the SPSS (V26) program was used to analyze the main criteria and sub-criteria priorities from top to bottom according to their values of the Relative Importance In
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As the process of estimate for model and variable selection significant is a crucial process in the semi-parametric modeling At the beginning of the modeling process often At there are many explanatory variables to Avoid the loss of any explanatory elements may be important as a result , the selection of significant variables become necessary , so the process of variable selection is not intended to simplifying model complexity explanation , and also predicting. In this research was to use some of the semi-parametric methods (LASSO-MAVE , MAVE and The proposal method (Adaptive LASSO-MAVE) for variable selection and estimate semi-parametric single index model (SSIM) at the same time .
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