Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The research deals with the concept of stigma as one of the important phenomena that cast a shadow over the nature of the individual, his being and his personality through the inferior view with which he confronts in society, and (Sartors) indicates in this regard that stigma may lead to negative discrimination that leads to many defects, in terms of obtaining On care, poor health, service, and frequent setbacks that can damage self-esteem. The first roots of this phenomenon go back to the Greek civilization and what the Greeks used to burn and cut off some parts of the body and then announce to the nation that the bearer of this sign is a criminal. In addition to the Arab peoples living from setbacks that contributed to the exacerbation

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                 The research aimed to test the relationship between the size of investment allocations in the agricultural sector in Iraq and their determinants using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method compared to the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. The time series data for the period from 1990 to 2021 was utilized. The analysis showed that the estimates obtained using the ECM were more accurate and significant than those obtained using the OLS method. Johansen's test indicated the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the size of investment allocations and their determinants. The results of th

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 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

This paper presents a fuzzy logic controller for a two-tank level control system, which is a process with a dead time. The fuzzy controller is a proportional-integral (PI-like) fuzzy controller which is suitable for steady state behavior of the system. Transient behavior of the system was improved without the need for a derivative action by suitable change in the rule base of the controller. Simulation results showed the step response of the two-tank level control system when this controller was used to control this plant and the effect of the dead time on the response of the system.

There is no adopt in the importance of the optical communications in scientific civil and military applications because of it’s simplicity in manufacturing and it's low cost. The method of optical communication depends upon bearing the light beam the translated informations by a method called the light modulation. This method depends upon changing some light properties as frequency, amplitude and pulse duration according to the translating informations. The changes in the first two properties are concerned optically with the analog modulation while the third one concern at most with digital modulation. All past methods are expensive with low efficiency and needs electrical or magnetic fields. In this technique the source of voice used

            Human Interactive Proofs (HIPs) are automatic inverse Turing tests, which are intended to differentiate between people and malicious computer programs. The mission of making good HIP system is a challenging issue, since the resultant HIP must be secure against attacks and in the same time it must be practical for humans. Text-based HIPs is one of the most popular HIPs types. It exploits the capability of humans to recite text images more than Optical Character Recognition (OCR), but the current text-based HIPs are not well-matched with rapid development of computer vision techniques, since they are either vey simply passed or very hard to resolve, thus this motivate that

Carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is widely acknowledged as a leading advanced material structure, offering superior properties compared to traditional materials, and has found diverse applications in several industrial sectors, such as that of automobiles, aircrafts, and power plants. However, the production of CFRP composites is prone to fabrication problems, leading to structural defects arising from cycling and aging processes. Identifying these defects at an early stage is crucial to prevent service issues that could result in catastrophic failures. Hence, routine inspection and maintenance are crucial to prevent system collapse. To achieve this objective, conventional nondestructive testing (NDT) methods are utilized to i