Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Abstract

The  common types of movement disorders are ; dystonia which is a syndrome  of  repetitive muscle contractions. While , Huntington disease is autosomal dominant progressive neurodegenerative disorder, which is characterized by involuntary movements (“chorea”).

Tetrabenazine therapy has been shown to effectively control this movements compared with placebo.

Design the proper dosing approach for patients treated with tetrabenazine with genotype polymorphisms and their hepatic effect on patients.

A prospective case controlled study was carried on 50 patients whom    divided into 2 groups :first group involved 25 patients who had cho

The aim of this research is to construct an educational program in light of the theory of behavioral cognitive and its impact on the development of the efficient response to students affected by crises (centers of your right to education). To achieve the objectives of the research, two scales were developed by the researcher in addition to two equivalent hypotheses were formulated. The scale contains (26) items divided into five fields; for its validity and reliability were derived based on the measure of efficient response, an educational program based on the theory of behavioral cognition. The test and the educational program were applied to a sample of (60) students from the centers of your right to education, divided into experimenta

The subject of improving the performance of services provided by government institutions of the important topics at the present time because of their direct contact at the service of citizens and the increased importance of these units as a result of the diversity of activities performed by the so governments of the countries and their people made sure to pay attention to the good use of those allocated to those sectors of resources and spending in the service prescribed and manage the highest level of efficiency and effectiveness and monitor the proper management of the money used in those sectors and evaluate their performance through the Supreme Audit Institutions so that they can play their role oversight and contribute to th

Background: Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) is the most ‎commonly used m‏aterial in denture construction. This material is ‎far from ideal in fulfilling the‎ mechanical requirements, like low impact and transverse strength and poor thermal conductivity are present in this material. The purpose of this study was to study the effect of addition a composite which include 1%wt silanized silicone dioxide nano fillers (SiO2) and 1wt% oxygen plasma treated polypropylene fiber (PP) on some properties of heat cured acrylic resin denture base material (PMMA). Materials and methods: One hund‏red (100) prepared specimens were divided into five groups according to the tests, each group consisted of 20 specimens and t

The study aims to provide a Suggested model for the application of Virtual Private Network is a tool that used to protect the transmitted data through the Web-based information system, and the research included using case study methodology in order to collect the data about the research area ( Al-Rasheed Bank) by using Visio to design and draw the diagrams of the suggested models and adopting the data that have been collected by the interviews with the bank's employees, and the research used the modulation of data in order to find solutions for the research's problem.

The importance of the study Lies in dealing with one of the vital topics at the moment, namely, how to make the information transmitted via

The transfer of chemical pollutants from bottled water into water due to heat, sunlight and poor storage is one of the most serious threats to human health around the world, the objective of this study was to estimate the pH value and the transport of heavy metals from plastic bottles to water, for this purpose, 30 bottles of water for 10 local brands were collected and divided into three groups, the first was left at room temperature 25°C, The second was placed in a heat oven at 25°C and the third in another oven at 50°C for two weeks. The results showed significant differences at (P<0.05) between water samples, pH value and concentrations of heavy metals (Sb, Pb, Ni, Cu, Cr, Cd and Fe) we

This work deals with thermal cracking of three samples of extract lubricating oil produced as a by-product from furfural extraction process of lubricating oil base stock in AL-Dura refinery. The thermal cracking processes were carried out at a temperature range of 325-400 ºC and atmospheric pressure by batch laboratory reactor. The distillation of cracking liquid products was achieved by general ASTM distillation (ASTM D -86) for separation of gasoline fraction up to 220 ºC from light cycle oil fraction above 220 ºC. The comparison between the conversions at different operating conditions of thermal cracking processes indicates that a high conversion was obtained at 375°C, according to gasoline production. According to gasoline produ

In this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as  the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best  estimator  is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).

The catalytic cracking of three feeds of extract lubricating oil, that produced as a by-product from the process of furfural extraction of lubricating oil base stock in AL-Dura refinery at different operating condition, were carried out at a fixed bed laboratory reactor. The initial boiling point for these feeds was 140 ºC for sample (1), 86 ºC for sample (2) and 80 ºC for sample (3). The catalytic cracking processes were carried out at temperature range 325-400 ºC and initially at atmospheric pressure after 30 minutes over 9.88 % HY-zeolite catalyst load. The comparison between the conversion at different operating conditions of catalytic cracking processes indicates that a high yield was obtained at 375°C, according to gasoline pr