The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

This paper presents comprehensive analysis and investigation for 1550nm and 1310nm ring optical modulators employing an electro-optic polymer infiltrated silicon-plasmonic hybrid phase shifter. The paper falls into two parts which introduce a theoretical modeling framework and performance assessment of these advanced modulators, respectively. In this part, analytical expressions are derived to characterize the coupling effect in the hybrid phase shifter, transmission function of the modulator, and modulator performance parameters. The results can be used as a guideline to design compact and wideband optical modulators using plasmonic technology

The ring modulator described in part I of this paper is designed here for two operating wavelengths 1550nm and 1310nm. For each wavelength, three structures are designed corresponding to three values of polymer slot widths (40, 50 and 60nm). The performance of these modulators are simulated using COMSOL software (version 4.3b) and the results are discussed and compared with theoretical predictions. The performance of intensity modulation/direct detection short range and long rang optical communication systems incorporating the designed modulators is simulated for 40 and 100Gb/s data rates using Optisystem software (version 12). The results reveal that an average energy per bit as low as 0.05fJ can be obtained when the 1550nm modulator is d

This study examines postgraduate students’ awareness of pragmatic aspects, including Grice Maxims, Politeness, and Direct and Indirect forms of speech. According to Paul Grice’s theory of implicature, which is considered one of the most important contributions to pragmatics, this paper discusses how postgraduate students can meet the cooperative principle when communicating effectively. It also outlines how does politeness principles influence obeying or violating the maxims and how is the use of direct or indirect forms of utterances prompted by politeness. Sixteen master’s students of Linguistics and Literature were asked to take a multiple-choice test. The test will be represented along with the interpretation of each optio

A field study was conducted on a sample of the public in Baghdad to study the audience's exposure to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products and their trends in order to determine the rate of exposure of the public to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products according to the theory of uses and rumors and to determine the public's attitudes towards television promotion of pharmaceutical products. A survey of (25) a questions was distributed to a sample of the audience of 150 people. The statistical program SPSS was used to unload the data and for the calculation of frequencies and percentages and correlation coefficients. The research reached several results, Most importantly, the television promotion is well receiv

There is a theoretical controversy in the books of Usul al-Fiqh, in the past and the present, about whether the ruling should be attached to its reason (al-Hikmah), or its apparent and stable cause (al-Illah). Looking at the practical cases of the jurists, we found them sometimes attaching rulings to its reason, and sometimes to its cause, so there is a need to know the factors that affect their choices. By extrapolation, the researcher reached at nine factors that affect referring the ruling to its cause or to its reason in jurisprudential cases.

The dislocation and gifts at special is the aspect of social life they reflect us how rich and influential class of society, a special category of the ruling category of the caliph and his family and his ministers and his generals and senior statesmen, a powerful and wealth and power and study here dealing with the effect the media for the distribution of dislocations and gifts to the special category both internally and for employers the state and its men or externally represented foreign relations with princes in the state and the regions and include the definition of the concepts above with surrounding contents and events distributed as the some of which were distributed in certain occasions fixed times while others did not have a spe

      This paper tackles methods of teaching conversation in Russian to students speaking Arabic. It analyses the differences between the two languages, as well as the difficulties and major errors faced by Arabic speakers studying Russian. Particularly, it looks at the difficulty of transforming spoken language. Finally, the paper suggests ways for teaching spoken language and treating the reasons behind making errors.

Аннотация

          Данная статья рассматривает методы преподавания говорения на русском языке для носителей арабского яз