Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

It is very well known in the planning publications that when creating spacing development to a region or sub-region, it can be able to make more than an alternative consisting with the strategic directions overtaken from the actual development of region and the situational and developmental objectives needed. However, the difficulty facing the situational planning is in selecting one of these alternatives to be the best in order to make a balanced situational re-structure, and achieving the economic, social and civil objectives. The developmental situation elements in the regions and governorates, including (Karbala) impose themselves as situational power which implies the process of re-structural arrangement where the situational develo

The educational service one of activities which have great effect in the city life and it's community which considered as an affective instrument for the social and civilized construction and its role in the development of culture and determining the general features of the society. Therefore planning for educational service is considered as a necessary for economical, social and cultural conditions in the Arab community lives in general and the Iraqi community in special. The educational service buildings and distribution forms an insurmountable obstacle in the urban areas. So the balance distribution in Baghdad presents an indication to ensure the equality of educational opportunities besides the correlation of these institutes with th

This paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq

 Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit  tests, which are to determine

Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC),  Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu

Statistical methods and statistical decisions making were used to arrange and analyze the primary data to get norms which are used with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis programs to identify the animals production and poultry units in strategic nutrition channels, also the priorities of food insecurity through the local production and import when there is no capacity for production. The poultry production is one of the most important commodities that satisfy human body protein requirements, also the most important criteria to measure the development and prosperity of nations. The poultry fields of Babylon Governorate are located in Abi Ghareg and Al_Kifil centers according to many criteria or factors such as the popu

Untreated municipal solid waste (MSW) release onto land is prevalent in developing countries. To reduce the high levels of harmful components in polluted soils, a proper evaluation of heavy metal concentrations in Erbil's Kani Qrzhala dump between August 2021 and February 2022 is required. The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of improper solid waste disposal on soil properties within a landfill by assessing the risks of contamination for eight heavy elements in two separate layers of the soil by using geoaccumulation index (I-geo) and pollution load index (PLI) supported. The ArcGIS software was employed to map the spatial distribution of heavy element pollution and potential ecological risks. The I-geo values in summe

     This paper discusses estimating the two scale parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution for singly type one censored data which is one of the most important Rights censored data, using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLEM) which is one of the most popular and widely used classic methods, based on an iterative procedure such as the Newton-Raphson to find estimated values for these two scale parameters by using real data for COVID-19 was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. The duration of the study was in the interval 4/5/2020 until 31/8/2020 equivalent to 120 days, where the number of patients who entered the (study) hospital with sample size is (n=785). The number o