Focusing on the negative role of default risk on banks, as it is one of the most important risks facing banks, which are difficult to determine accurately, and its reflection on the indicators of profitability of cash flows. The increasing competition between banks led to an increase in the credit facilities granted by banks, and was accompanied by an increase in exposure to the risks of default, which led to an impact on the level of performance of banks in terms of achieving the required return according to the levels of high competition. Therefore, the problem of this study focused on the extent to which the risk indicators of default affect the profitability indicators of the cash flows of the banks research sample in the profit

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Receipt date: 12/28/2020 accepted date: 20/1/2021 Publication date: 12/31/2021

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