يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Sebkha of geomorphological aspects of evaporative where climate leads active role, which forms part of the earth's surface in the form of Iraqi Mesopotamia plain who of the most fertile land, and because of natural factors and human Common turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha. It was to determine the exact geomorphological associated of Sebkha formats by field work such as: Alnbaka, lakes, salt flats, and other forms of Small is: bridges salt, mud cracks, salt ponds, Rectangles and polygons salt, Sahaf salt, salt domes, salt gravel, bumps saline (salt points), Ash salt, salt bows, in detail and accurately documented Terrestrial Photogrammetry field and were compared to the levels and standards varieties have been
... Show MoreWas and military music still in Iraq whatever tributary of Music, where contributed Brphi Iraqi music musicians, authors and composers of musicians skilled and qualified teachers, was, and still have a big role in the growth and prosperity and progress of contemporary Iraqi music through active and vital role and make a lot of musical tenders excellence in various military and civilian walks of life whether it be in the days of war or peace.As it is the military music schools and the main source of the most important in the education of these machines and training. Therefore occupies the military musicians in Iraq prestigious and important, particularly in the Iraqi National Symphony Orchestra started the forefront of the musical instrum
... Show MoreAfter a temporary halt to forced thghebr in different cities of Iraq this methodlogy
opeations returned directiy in the areas of political conflict on the ground which are translated
operations and forced displacement violence es they operations aimed at completing the
forced displacement that occurred after the occupation in(2003)which took an upward curve
publicly after these events and some of which are aimed at the liquidation of some provinces
than any demographic diversity of religious or sectarian or alhens and others aimed at
redemographic distribution within the province itself to produce a net sectarian zones as is the
case in Diyala Nineveh and Babylon Baghdad has the epicenter of sectarian violence and th
Food industries are variety to include number of agricultural products (plantbotential and animal) which can be manufactured locally, thus, Iraqi market is full by different types of food products from neighbor countries, because of un equivalence and inability of competence, in away to cover (90%) average of local request need under commercial opening.
In Iraq although its importance, this industry suffers from difficulties, the most important one is the rising in products costs, shortage in agricultural products, experience, and qualification, besides, the challenges , by flooding market in food products and what are contained of higher competitive features from quality and prices side
... Show MoreThe concept of privatization is built on the basis of the transfer of assets and services of the public sector to the private sector this concept has appeared in the eighties of the last century whene the high oil prices took place and recession solution swept the world Which called for the freedom of the market and left the room for the private sector to take the initiatine in economic activity. Both the IMF have adopted this thesis in their programs of the structural adjustment in light of external and internal factors helped to Create the conditions to accept thesis that under the pretext of achieving a number of economic goals.
In Iraq in spite of
... Show MoreThe study present a detailed description of the new violent situation that those women faced after 2003 in Iraqi society and the effect of such violence and security breaking down on minority women perception and feeling of bonding or adaptation with this society and how they look to the aaceptance of the society to them and their minority group as a whole. In addition to the impact of these social changes after 2003,on the women rights and personal freedom. One of the aims of the study is to provide data base to be used when efforts present to put a policies or programs for supporting the minority women. Another aim is to point out and define the violations commited on the rights of those women. The field survey included 2100 women from
... Show MoreThe study aimed at clarifying the contradictions of the general industrial companies despite the investment allocations and the government investment expenditure on manufacturing activities under the so- called rehabilitation programs. However, this did not contribute to a certain extent in the growth and industrial leap in the direction of developing the activities of the sector Industrial sector in Iraq because of the lack of adoption of a number of basic principles towards the need to take priority of investment in the field of manufacturing and industrial decision-making in the restructuring of industry according to the priorities of investment in light of the international industrial trend, Tosmarah available to the manufact
... Show MoreThoudy sustainable development attention of researchers and scholars at various orientations intellectual economies were or Ssayasn, or others as gaining the process of paramount importance in the light of major developments and unprecedented in the modern world at the levels of all and which turned the world sprawling into something like a global village is small, being aimed at elimination of backwardness and development branches of the national economy and raise the level of economic performance, and what was the province of Kurdistan-Iraq from areas with privacy clear and meets the elements of economic development has seen the movement of economic development and social with special features de facto geographical, political a
... Show MoreBusiness incubator is a new effective mechanism in developing small projects through its introductions of a new integral system of services. It aims at supporting and developing making new projects. Hence, there is a big number of factors that are interrelated in the processes of preparation for those projects. Those factors are: organizing the incubator and the market available for the projects attached to them and the work programs which will have to be implemented. Those small projects represent more than 98% of the total work institutions in the world. Also it has become responsible for a ration reaching half of the national output of those countries. These projects have created between 40 to 80% of job opportunities availabl
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the Traumatic Symptoms (physiological, emotional, and cognitive) of earthquakes among the targeted sample; it also aims to identify the significant differences between psychological, emotional, and cognitive traumatic symptoms of earthquakes according to the gender and age of participants. The study additionally seeks to identify thepsychological positive-negative reactions associated with earthquakes according to gender and age of the participants. To measure the traumatic symptoms of earthquakes, a 4-point Likert scale questionnaire with (20) items (questions) accompanied with a 4-point Likert scale questionnaire with (18) items (questions) were used to measure the Psychological positive-n
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