يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
يهدف البحث إلى تقييم الكفاءة الوظيفية لمؤسسات التعليم الأهلي في أداء وظيفتها بمستوى عالٍ لتشبع حاجة سكان المدينة الذين فضّلوا التعليم الأهلي على التعليم داخل المؤسسات الحكومية مما أدى إلى انتشارها، وصولا إلى أهم الآثار المترتبة على ذلك الانتشار إذ نافست فيه مؤسسات التعليم الحكومي، بل وتنافست المؤسسات الأهلية فيما بينها لتقديم أفضل خدمة تعليمية للصراع من أجل البقاء، وتهدف أيضا إلى إظهار الوجه السلبي ا
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the degree of implementation of the coronavirus prevention standards (covid-19) in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and compare it with the families of intellectual disabilities. The study population consisted of all families residing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve the objectives of the research, the analytical descriptive approach was employed. The study sample consisted of (372) families, among them (84) families with intellectual disabilities, and (288) families without intellectual disabilities. They were chosen from the Saudi community according to what is available for collection in a simple random way, using the standard criteria for the prevention of coronavirus (Covid- 19) Prepared by the resear
... Show MoreThe researcher aims to Diagnose the reality of research variables, strategic leadership and decision support systems, and their impact on crisis management in the General Company for Steel Industries because of their important role in preventing crises and reducing their occurrence for the research company in particular and other companies in general affiliated with the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, as well as clarifying theoretical concepts of research variables As it included the answer to questions related to the research problem, including (Is there an impact of the strategic leadership in managing crises if decision support systems are used), and the researcher adopted the descriptive and analytical approach in its comp
... Show MorePraise be to Allaah.
My research has included the following: The field of application of semantics when fundamentalists are the book and the Sunnah. Imam Ibn Hajar agreed with the majority of fundamentalists that what is meant from the year (one word denotes one side on two things onwards), and agreed that the significance of the year specific to the rest of its members is not a definite and definite formulas of the public has the singular known as (the) Astragharism, and the plural known as ( The nationality stating that dumping, pluralism is defined as (add), and nakra, if it occurs in the context of the condition, denial and prohibition, the names of the condition, the connected names, and the word (all - all). And the year in whic
A literary-educational work is a work that explains wisdom to the reader and presents moral, educational and instructional issues in a literary form. Qaboos-nameh or Nasihat al-Muluk is an educational and educational book that has a special place in the field of ethics and guidance, where the author guides his children. Also, Ibn al-Wardi's Lamiyah or Nasihat al-Akhwan is a poem containing moral advice and advice in 77 verses that Ibn al-Wardi wrote to his son.
It seems that the main goal of Ibn al-Wardi and Onsur AL-maali in Lamia and Qaboos-nameh was to express educational and moral issues and spread and convey them to future generations. Ibn al-Wardi, like Onsur AL-maali, listed moral points such as knowledge, humility
... Show MoreThe effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreSome types of the fungus Aspergillus were isolated from some hospitals in the city of Baghdad (Imam Ali Hospital and Sadr General Hospital). The samples were taken by Transport media at a rate of three replicates of each place isolated from samples from different places within the hospital (waste, baths, the sick beds, corridors and room floors) for the purpose of isolating and diagnosing the fungus on the Czapeck Dox Agar media. It was noticed that the spread rate of fungus Aspergillus was 70% compared to other species that have emerged during the isolation process of the Sabouraud's Dextrose Agar media. The species A.niger (56.25%) was considered the most common type of fungus visible during the isolation process of the Imam Ali Hospit
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the future teachers' attitudes toward cloud computing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from their point of view. The research adopted the descriptive approach, and a questionnaire was applied to a random sample of (370) male and female teachers in governmental and private general education schools in the Al-Jouf region, Saudi Arabia. The results of the research concluded that the reality of future teachers' attitudes towards cloud computing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from their point of view is very high and that most areas of using computing are in the field of assessment, then teaching, and activities. The challenges of future teachers' attitudes toward cloud computing are recorded at a high level, parti
... Show MoreBased on the diazotization-coupling reaction, a new, simple, and sensitive spectrophotometric method for determining of a trace amount of (BPF) is presented in this paper. Diazotized metoclopramide reagent react with bisphenol F produces an orange azo-compound with a maximum absorbance at 461 nm in alkaline solution. The experimental parameters were optimized such as type of alkaline medium, concentration of NaOH, diazotized metoclopramide amount, order additions, reaction time, temperature, and effect of organic solvents to achieve the optimal performance for the proposed method. The absorbance increased linearly with increasing bisphenol F concentration in the range of 0.5-10 μg mL-1 under ideal conditions, with a correlati
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