يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The City of Ember is a very interesting novel that is although intended for young readers, have so many layers and messages that are misunderstood. In this research, both the novel and the film adaptation are studied with the intent to decode the warning messages that the novelist and the director tried to introduce to the audience. The research studies four vital messages; the first message is that history repeats itself for the novel has many allusions to the history of Jews and their painful holocaust and even goes back in history the days of Moses and the Exodus, the second message tackles the conspiracy theory that states nothing happens by accident and that everything is planned and connected hence comes the third message
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to study and test the impact of the policy of open-book accounting as one of the cost management mechanisms in achieving the competitive advantage in Jordanian industrial public companies, to achieve the objectives of the study, a field study was conducted by surveying the views of a sample of the accountants of the Jordanian industrial public companies. Hence the arithmetical Means, the Standard Deviations, the Significant Value and the Simple Linear Regression are used to test the research hypotheses and to achieve the research goals. The results of the study showed that there is a statistically significant effect of the policy of open-book accounting as one of the cost management mechanisms in achieving the
... Show MoreDespite the great economic and commercial importance given to real estate by virtue of its view of the landscape or public roads, US courts have differed in their position on compensation for damages resulting from blocking that view or vision by public projects. Some courts compensated for such damages, other courts approved such compensation. Hence, this research came to shed light on the extent of the possibility of compensation for blocking the view or vision as a result of public projects, and the research has supported us with many judicial decisions.
Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam is famous figure in political life of lranian; The life of Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam is full of incidents and conflicts in the period of the expansion of foreign influence in lran Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam has an important role in the history of Iran Modern political considered him one of the most prominent leaders to the unified Arabian nationalistic liberating Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam raised in the history of the Qajar .
Hate speech (henceforth HS) has recently spread and become an important issue. This type of speech in children's writings has a particular formulation and specific objectives that the authors intend to convey. Thus, the study aims at examining qualitatively and quantitatively the classism HS and its pragmatic functions via identifying the speech acts used to express classism HS, the implicature instigated as well as impoliteness. Since pragmatics is the study of language in context, which is greatly related to the situations and speaker’s intention, this study depends on pragmatic theoriespeech acts, impoliteness and conversational implicature) to analyze the data which are taken from Katherine Mansfield's short story (The D
... Show MoreThe current research included (the evaluation of Information Security Management System on according to international standard (ISO / IEC 27001: 2013) in Iraqi Commission for Computers and Informatics), for the development of an administrative system for information security is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication with others. The international legitimacy (represented by the International Organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment and the importance of the application of information Security Management System accordi
... Show MoreThis research includes the application of non-parametric methods in estimating the conditional survival function represented in a method (Turnbull) and (Generalization Turnbull's) using data for Interval censored of breast cancer and two types of treatment, Chemotherapy and radiation therapy and age is continuous variable, The algorithm of estimators was applied through using (MATLAB) and then the use average Mean Square Error (MSE) as amusement to the estimates and the results showed (generalization of Turnbull's) In estimating the conditional survival function and for both treatments ,The estimated survival of the patients does not show very large differences
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى التعرف على اثر استراتيجية نجمتين وامنية في تحصيل مادة الكيمياء عند طلاب الصف الثاني المتوسطولتحقيق هدف البحث تم اتباع المنهج التجريبي ذو الضبط الجزئي وتم تحديد مجتمع البحث بطلاب الصف الثاني المتوسط لجميع المدارس الثانموية والمتوسط التابعة لمديرية تربية الكرخ الثانية وتم اخنيار احد هذه المداس بصورة قصدية لتطبيق تجربة ابلبحث الحالي
The aim of this research is to make a new investigation of a scientific thesis in Arabic Morphology in which an allusion occurred in relation to its real author and its title, there is alot of dropping and flaw when it was first applied due to depending on one written transcript
Material Requirements Planning System (MRP) is considered as one of the planning and controlling of production and inventory systems which is used to prepare plan of the final production requirements and its parts of subcomponents raw materials and the time at which it was needed for the purpose of preparing orders of production and purchase.
The problem of the present work is represented in the general company of electrical industrialization adoption of traditional methods and personal experience of the process of the products and\or purchase quantity and inventory quantities and limiting the required time for acquiring the required quantities of the materials and parts used in the finish product of the
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