يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The study aims to measure and evaluate the return and the risk formulas of Islamic finance of Jordan during the period (2000 – 2009) according of increasing importance of these banks in recent and coming years to face challenges to maximize returns and minimize risks through financing with Islamic formula to investigate of existence statistical significant relationship between returns and risking Islamic bank , has been use of financial other statistical measurement. Measuring return and risk of Islamic banks have not been widely considered ,except in few descriptive studies . The controversy among academic and professionals about hot to measure and evaluate a comprehe
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This study aims to identify the level of emotional intelligence among principals of basic education schools in Al-Dakhiliya Governorate. The descriptive approach was used. A questionnaire of two parts was utilized; its second part included (27) items divided into five dimensions related to emotional intelligence. The study sample consisted of (337) teachers representing 52% of the study sample were randomly selected. The study result showed that level of the emotional intelligence is high and the motivation dimension is the highest. There were no statistical differences at the level (α≤ 0.05) due to the impact of (the social type, the educational qualification, and the years of experience) in all the
... Show MoreThe information revolution، the new language has become one for all the peoples of the world through handling and exchange and to participate in all key areas (economic، cultural and scientific) and Accounting episode of this revolution has turned most of the traditional systems (manual) in companies to automated systems، this transformation in the regulations summoned from the auditors that develops their traditional examination automated systems so had to provide tools for auditing help auditors to keep abreast of developments and as a result there is no evidence checksum Local Private audited automated systems came search to provide evidence helps auditors for guidance as part of COBIT، which provides audit procedures Detailed inf
... Show MoreIt has became necessary helping the children to developing same of educational values which can be drawn from daily situations which the live. Especially the childhood stage is the basic building of value individual content since its establishment the societies take care of learning children and take care of them. Through their institutes which depended on, in this function. Therefore the importance of this, research is coming from the importance of this age stage and from importance and necessity of children aguirement the educational values and its development to them, and the importance this research coming from depending on guidance program with new content and it is (al bum of pictures) fro
... Show MoreThis research involves study effect of chloride ions in concentration range (0.01 – 0.50 mol.dm-3) on the corrosion behavior of Al-Zn alloy in basic media of 1x10-3 mol.dm-3 NaOH at pH=11 and four different temperatures in the range (298-313 K). Cathodic and anodic Tafel slopes (bc &ba) and transfer coefficients (αc & αa) were calculated and the results interprets according to the variation of the rate – determining steps. The results also indicate that the chloride ions are bonded chemically in the interface as an initial step of formation of different mixed oxohydroxy – and chloro complexes. Polarization resistance (Rp) is calculates
... Show MoreWater resources would be differentiate in Morocco specially in Morocco which appear as form of eyes ,rivers as dissolved water of mountain.
The human takes care of water either as rains to store and use in necessity trying to bring it to Maracas by helping from state
It is no secret to anyone that studying and investigating books of jurisprudence, despite their suffering, is a pleasure that cannot be compared to pleasure, and it has benefits and importance that cannot be limited and summed up, and it has great fruits that researchers and students of knowledge reap, as well as enriching libraries with jurisprudential material, after dusting them and taking them out to the light of libraries to be seen. Researchers and scholars, generation after generation, so that this nation can benefit from this pioneering intellectual and scientific product that was written for us by our first ancestors of working scholars who enriched human civilization with this scientific material, which has become a beacon guid
... Show MoreOut of 150 clinical samples, 50 isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae were identified according to morphological and biochemical properties. These isolates were collected from different clinical samples, including 15 (30%) urine, 12 (24%) blood, 9 (18%) sputum, 9 (18%) wound, and 5 (10%) burn. The minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) assay revealed that 25 (50%) of isolates were resistant to gentamicin (≥16µg/ml), 22 (44%) of isolates were resistant to amikacin (≥64 µg/ml), 21 (42%) of isolates were resistant to ertapenem (≥8 µg/ml), 18 (36%) of isolates were resistant to imipenem (4- ≥16µg/ml), 43 (86%) of isolates were resistant to ceftriaxone (4- ≥64 µg/ml), 42 (84%) of isolates were resistant to ceftazidime (1
... Show MoreThe research work is "The passive voice as a grammatical phenomenon in four selected textbooks". The research deals with the grammatical phenomenon passive in German. The research consists of two parts, the theoretical and the empirical part. The present research work is divided into 3 sections:
The first section includes the definition of passive, passive types, process passive, state passive, passive with modal verbs, and other types of passive. The second section provides illustrations of the four selected textbooks. The third chapter presents the passive voice in textbooks, namely German language teaching for foreigners by Dora Schulz and Heinz Griesbach, Delfin von Aufderstrasse H. and others, Em von Balme, M. and others and
... Show MoreThe current research aims to know the extent of the impact of performance evaluation in its dimensions as an explanatory variable in the behavioural and attitudinal work outputs with its dimensions as a response variable in order to reach appropriate solutions through which the University of Fallujah seeks to achieve its goal in the process of diagnosing the axes of strength and to benefit from them in the process of strengthening the status and sobriety of the academic position of the professor and the researcher relied on The descriptive and analytical approach in carrying out this study, and data was collected from university professors, including leaders, heads of departments and divisions, who numbered (97) teachers. And fie
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