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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of relations and forces of production in extraction And pearl industry in the Arabian Gulf 1900-1950 *
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بسبب محدودية الموارد الطبيعية، فأن سكان الخليج ومنذ القدم وجهوا جلّ نشاطاتهم توجهاً بحرياً: صيد الاسماك وصناعة اللؤلؤ العنصر الرئيس في حجم التشغيل، وتكوين الفائض الاقتصادي في المنطقة آنذاك.

لقد تزايدت أهمية هذا النشاط بخاصة بعد النصف الثاني من القرن التاسع عشر، لرواج تجارة اللؤلؤ عالمياً، وأنفتاح الخليج على الدول الاوروبية التي شهدت نهضة صناعية متسارعة، وحيث وصلت الخليج العديد من بضائع

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analysing inequality in the Distribution of Economic Welfare in Suleimania Governorate during (2007):
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Abstract

 The issue of inequality in distribution of income and / or consumption expenditure is related to economic welfare because there is an inverse relationship between the economic welfare on the one hand, and the degree of inequality, on the other hand. Despite the fact that inequality is considered as normal phenomenon in every society, but if it exceeded certain limits it will lead to undesirable economic, social and political consequences. Therefore, the availability of indicators about inequality is a necessary tool for planning and evaluation of economic development programs. So, current study is aiming at measuring and analyzing the degree of inequality in distribution of consumpti

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 02 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Media Discourse of the Newspaper (El Watan) Towards Social Issues Study in Discourse Analysis
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Journalistic discourse is a fertile through which most of the segments of the society interact in all their platforms: intellectual, cultural, social, and various settings between the vital structures of the state; which makes it the link between the groups and segments of the society.

The role of discourse, moreover, engages in a vital way by establishing a culture of debate on controversial issues that provided a space in the different visions and differing perceptions on how to formulate the discourse and the magnitude of vocabulary for the diagnosis of these issues. Since there is no system of any community empty of the emergence of issues reflecting the public interest which is necessary is reflected in the context discourse

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Principal Components Analysis in the Formation of a Sustainable Human Development Index for Arab Countries
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This study aims to derive a sustainable human development index for the Arab countries by using the principal components analysis, which can help in reducing the number of data in the case of multiple variables.  This can be relied upon in the interpretation and tracking sustainable human development in the Arab countries in the view of the multiplicity of sustainable human development indicators and its huge data, beside the heterogeneity of countries in a range of characteristics associated with indicators of sustainable human development such as area, population, and economic activity. The study attempted to use the available data to the selected Arab countries for the recent years. This study concluded that a single inde

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational socialization is an mediator to the effect of Plateaus and workaholism in employees loyalty
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The research aimed to test the effect of independent variables career plateaus and workaholism on employees loyalty through the influence of the mediator variable organizational socialization. Descriptive approach with survey style   on a sample of managers and executives in the Iraqi Drilling Company in Basra's (123) employees. The most important findings of the research are: the existence of a significant effect of the independent variables career plateaus and workaholism in employees loyalty by having a mediator variable organizational socialization and introduced numerical from recommendations.                    &nbs

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Developmental Role of Social Work in Reducing Social Extremism:A Field Study in Baghdad University-College of Mass Communication as a Model: محمد حميد علوان
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This study deals with the role that social work profession plays in all its fields to reduce social extremismat home, or school or within society. The study aims to: examine the historical roots of social work in the Iraqi society, investigate the objectives of the developmental role of social work, review the theories of social extremism, its characteristics, and causes, and to analyze the developmental role of social work to limit social extremism. To meet the objectives of the study, a descriptive analytical approach has been adopted. It involves using the social sampling survey method, i.e., a questionnaire tool in the University of Baghdad community-College of Media. The sample was randomly selected to include (100) students from th

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Cognitive-Behavioral Counseling in Reducing Symptoms of Social Anxiety and Improving Social Skills among Intermediate School Students in Dhi Qar Governorate
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The study aims to investigate the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral counseling in reducing symptoms of social anxiety and improving social skills among a sample of intermediate school students in the city of Souq Al-Shuyukh at Dhi Qar Governorate. The sample consisted of (40) female students, their ages ranged (14-15). They were selected based on their high scores on the social anxiety scale. The sample was divided into two groups: an experimental group, and a control group, equal in number (20) students in each group. The researcher used the social anxiety scale and the social skills scale. In addition, he used the cognitive-behavioral counseling program, consisting of (11) counseling sessions, with a rate of (45) minutes per sessio

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of existing deposit facilities on the quality of bank liquidity: Applied research in the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2010 - 2017)
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The research aims at showing the effectiveness of the existing deposit facilities in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010/2017. The problem of research indicates that the Iraqi banking system enjoys high liquidity levels exceeding the standard rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq amounting to 30% For an appropriate level of liquidity remains a major challenge to the management of the bank because it is a trade-off between profitability and liquidity, and also indicates the existence of funds disabled and not available for credit and investment opportunities, and based on the research hypothesis:

The existence of a significant effect of the deposit facilities existing in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
تقييم الأداء المالي لشركات التأمين باستعمال النسب المالية: دراسة حالة في الشركة الجزائرية للتأمين
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Les sociétés d’assurances sont considérées parmi les importantes entreprises financières non bancaires.

      Pour que ces sociétés assurent sa continuité d’existence, il faut qu’elles veillent au rendement financier qui représente ses différentes actions durant une période déterminée, en effectuant une évaluation permanente en utilisant de différentes méthodes parmi lesquelles l’analyse financière avec ses aspects divers.

         L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer le rendement financier des sociétés d’assurances et où projette l’étude sur la société Algérienne d’assurance durant la période 07- 09.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
KNOWLEDGE SHARING REQUIREMENTS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE AUDIT WORKS IN THE FEDERAL BOARD OF SUPREME AUDIT OF IRAQ
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The research studies the main variables for the concept of sharing in knowledge in one of the most important control agencies in Iraq, which is (The Federal Board of Supreme Audit). Also, the quality of the controlling businesses by the Board in light of the major challenges that facing the fight against signs of cheating and administrative and financial corruption for offices submitted to controlled and auditing, with the increasing and intensification of these appearances. In order to enable the Board to cope with this situation, has to be thinking hard about how to achieve excellence, progress and development to face these situations, through the application of sharing in knowledge for the financial controller, and then achiev

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