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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analysing inequality in the Distribution of Economic Welfare in Suleimania Governorate during (2007):
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Abstract

 The issue of inequality in distribution of income and / or consumption expenditure is related to economic welfare because there is an inverse relationship between the economic welfare on the one hand, and the degree of inequality, on the other hand. Despite the fact that inequality is considered as normal phenomenon in every society, but if it exceeded certain limits it will lead to undesirable economic, social and political consequences. Therefore, the availability of indicators about inequality is a necessary tool for planning and evaluation of economic development programs. So, current study is aiming at measuring and analyzing the degree of inequality in distribution of consumpti

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Principal Components Analysis in the Formation of a Sustainable Human Development Index for Arab Countries
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This study aims to derive a sustainable human development index for the Arab countries by using the principal components analysis, which can help in reducing the number of data in the case of multiple variables.  This can be relied upon in the interpretation and tracking sustainable human development in the Arab countries in the view of the multiplicity of sustainable human development indicators and its huge data, beside the heterogeneity of countries in a range of characteristics associated with indicators of sustainable human development such as area, population, and economic activity. The study attempted to use the available data to the selected Arab countries for the recent years. This study concluded that a single inde

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Media Discourse of the Newspaper (El Watan) Towards Social Issues Study in Discourse Analysis
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Journalistic discourse is a fertile through which most of the segments of the society interact in all their platforms: intellectual, cultural, social, and various settings between the vital structures of the state; which makes it the link between the groups and segments of the society.

The role of discourse, moreover, engages in a vital way by establishing a culture of debate on controversial issues that provided a space in the different visions and differing perceptions on how to formulate the discourse and the magnitude of vocabulary for the diagnosis of these issues. Since there is no system of any community empty of the emergence of issues reflecting the public interest which is necessary is reflected in the context discourse

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Interpretation des Gedichts ,,Sachliche Romanze,, von Erich Kästner
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Die Forschung besteht aus zwei Kapiteln: das erste Kapitel geht es nur um die Form des Gedichts, aber das zweite Kapitel geht es um die Analyse des Gedichts, und das ist das Wesen der Arbeit, gleichzeitig enthält das zweite Kapitel auch zwei wichtige Disziplinen.

Die erste Disziplin handelt es sich um die Struktur des Gedichts, nämlich die lyrische Seite; Reim,Rhythmus,Strophe,und Versmaße, aber die zweite Disziplin handelt es sich um den Inhalt, erklärt hier sowohl das Wesen als auch das Ziel des Gedichts, denn das Gedicht besteht aus vier Strophen, die miteinander zu sehr nicht getrennt sind.

Der Dichter beschreibt in erster Strophe die Beziehung zwischen einem Paar, das genau acht Jahre zusammen gelebt hat. Die bei

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Critical Discourse Analysis of the 2012 American Presidential Election Debates
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This study discusses the Critical Discourse Analysis of 2012 American Presidential Election Debate’. The researcher adopts a model proposed by Van Dijk’s (2006 d). Six ideological categories have been selected within the overall strategies of the ideological square are used. The categories are of three levels of discourse structure : (the meaning, the argumentation, and the rhetoric) .They have shown effective criteria for detecting the most disguised systems of racism and manipulation.

            Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the elite discourses of candidates contribute to the reproduction of domination, Orientalism, and Islamophobia. This can be appl

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Stylistic Analysis of Two Selected Poems: تحليل اسلوبي لقصيدتين مختارتين
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This paper presents a stylistic analysis of two poems of well-known poets of the English literature, namely; E.E. Cummings and the Irish noble laureate Seamus Heaney.  The researcher's attempt here is to approach Cummings’s poem “maggie and milly and molly and may” and Heaney’s “A Kite for Aibhín from the stylistics’ point of view.  The paper also analyzes the poems using the tools of linguistics with a view to make their meaning explicit.

          It is worth noting that stylistics as a scientific discipline is really beneficial to those who are teaching and studyi

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Analyse des strategies argumentatives : Etude comparee des discours Sarkozy - Hollande
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    The argumentation find its origins in some conceptions laid by Aristote. A speaker always intends to influence his hearers to change their beliefs. Therefore, this study deals with texts of the political speech of the French presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande in the treatment of argumentative strategies.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Euro Dinar Trading Analysis Using WARIMA Hybrid Model
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The rise in the general level of prices in Iraq makes the local commodity less able to compete with other commodities, which leads to an increase in the amount of imports and a decrease in the amount of exports, since it raises demand for foreign currencies while decreasing demand for the local currency, which leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the local currency in exchange for an increase in the exchange rate of currencies. This is one of the most important factors affecting the determination of the exchange rate and its fluctuations. This research deals with the currency of the European Euro and its impact against the Iraqi dinar. To make an accurate prediction for any process, modern methods can be used through which

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Crime Data Analysis of Prediction Based on Classification Approaches
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Crime is considered as an unlawful activity of all kinds and it is punished by law. Crimes have an impact on a society's quality of life and economic development. With a large rise in crime globally, there is a necessity to analyze crime data to bring down the rate of crime. This encourages the police and people to occupy the required measures and more effectively restricting the crimes. The purpose of this research is to develop predictive models that can aid in crime pattern analysis and thus support the Boston department's crime prevention efforts. The geographical location factor has been adopted in our model, and this is due to its being an influential factor in several situations, whether it is traveling to a specific area or livin

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design and Analysis of New Prosthetic Foot.
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There is a variety of artificial foot designs variable for use with prosthetic legs . Most of the design can be divided into two classes, articulated and non-articulated feet. one common non-articulated foot is the SACH . The solid ankle cushion heel foot referred to as the SACH foot has a rigid keel .

One key or the key factor in designing a new prosthesis is in the analysis of a patients response .

 This view is the most important because if the foot does not provide functional , practical or cosmetically acceptable characteristics the patient will not feel comfortable with the prosthesis , therefore design and manufacturing a new foot is essential, this foot made from polyethylene, its different shape and characte

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