يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This research aims to measure the discrepancy between the accounting income which is prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles and the tax income that is being prepared according to the rules and tax laws, and find out the most important differences that arise between incomes.The research found the most important to the following conclusions:1.Faces determining the tax base for companies subject to income challenges related to the weakness of the efficiency and the possibility of technical angel tax and its ability to examine the financial statements submitted to the tax administration tax.2.That the tax system in Iraq does not comply with accepted accounting principles generally accepted.The research recommends the
... Show MoreAbstract:
Today, the financial and banking sector is witnessing a qualitative shift thanks to financial technology services, which provide their services to many individuals and companies in quick, easy and less expensive ways compared to traditional means. Financial technology is a new form of financial science that combines financial transactions and technological skills concerned with providing financial services and improving the work environment within Banking institutions, and financial technology provides many advantages such as lower transaction costs, instant payment, and saving more time and effort in conducting banking
... Show MoreOil is considered the most important source for providing the funds for the national economic sectors. The revenues of oil constitute %95 of the GPD. Therefore, the development of the remaining sectors depend on oil..
The Iraqi Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) depended on the a unified price for all the buyers, That may not reflect the real value of market and did not contribute in marketing the type of heavy oil. Then, to what extent had SOMO been able to market the light and heavy crude oil in a way that contains the expected increase in the crude oil production.
Abstract
Financing is one of the important pillars for activating and activating the agricultural sector, through which we can see an agricultural project on the ground. However, supplying the agricultural sector with financial resources requires a credit policy that is capable of making the right financing decision, because the financial resources are limited. The credit policy, and the financing decision, must be the best use not only to provide the necessary money, but to work to provide everything that would develop and activate the agricultural sector.
The transformation of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank of Iraq from specialized banking to the overall would lead to a decrease in the volume
... Show MoreThe General Company for Iraqi Cement is regarded as one of the companies that contribute to support the Iraqi economy. It contributes to provide the material of cement which fulfils the consumer and investment need in the markets in competitive prices and not to resort to the importing of the cement from abroad. That would save a great share of the purchase parity of the poor sectors of society. The estimation of production function will contribute to putting the company.
The application functions of the standard production of benefit critical to clarify the actual relationship between production & its components, & allow to clarify the i
... Show MoreThe Sebkha is considered the evaporative geomorphological features, where climate plays an active role. It forms part of the surface features in Mesopotamia plain of Iraqi, which is the most fertile lands, and because of complimentary natural and human factors turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha lands. The use satellite image (Raw Data), Landsat 30M Mss for the year 1976 Landsat 7 ETM, and the Landsat 8 for year 2013 (LDCM) for the summer Landsat Data Continuity Mission and perform geometric correction, enhancements, and Subset image And a visual analysis Space visuals based on the analysis of spectral fingerprints earth's This study has shown that the best in the discrimination of Sebkha Remote sensing techniques a
... Show MoreThis study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreIn addition to its basic communicative function, language can be used to imply information that is not actually stated, i.e. addressers do not always state exactly (or directly) what they mean. Such instances fall within the domain of pragmatics in that they have to do with how addressers use language to communicate in a particular situation by implication rather than by direct statement. The researcher attempts to demonstrate that the beauty and the multiple layers of meaning in poetry can be better explored if the addressee looks at the lines from a pragmatic perspective in search for implied meaning. There are many devices that can convey implied meaning in poetry, among which are 'rhetorical', 'figurative' or 'literary' devices. But
... Show MoreRecent advancement in production technologist of manufacturing processes have left an important effects upon cost structure. Moreover the problem for providing necessary and adequate information for managerial decision making.
Therefore the cost – volume – profit analysis under the new activity based costing has replace the old method for Analysing the relation between C.V.P with respect to profit planning and control.
In brief the C.V.P object is to discuss the effect of changes on profit resulting from changes in sales volume, cost of manufacturing and selling price.
This study consists of four chapters:
The first chapter dea
... Show MoreThis research is an attempt to explore a social and pragmatic phenomenon of lamentation in elegies of Gray and AL-Khansaa' who represent two different cultures. It illustrates the intended meaning of lamentation in English and Arabic and finds how the two languages express this purpose of poetry by analysing it socio-pragmatically adopting Searle's models (1969),and its modifications. Lamentation is considered as a mournful poem lamenting the death of whole humanity as Gray's elegy and of an individual as AL-Khansaa's elegy. So, Gray portrays a universal picture concerning his lamentation, while AL-Khansaa' portrays an individual and subjective picture regarding her lamentation. As branches of linguistics, sociolinguistics de
... Show More