يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Purpose of this study are analyze financial lease advantage through analyze and discuss financial lease cost, and achieve tax advantage to reach study objective. study include two firms ,oil firm and construction firm with limited liability. The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial lease achieve present value of the costs is positive. This study found out the results that verify the hypothesis: The tax advantage of financial Leasing is characterized by decreasing cost and achieving higher tax shield. The study also found the most important recommendations of awareness of the benefits arising f
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The great importance that distinguish these factorial experiments made them subject a desirable for use and application in many fields, particularly in the field of agriculture, which is considered the broad area for experimental designs applications.
And the second case for the factorial experiment, which faces researchers have great difficulty in dealing with the case unbalance we mean that frequencies treatments factorial are not equal meaning (that is allocated a number unequal of blocks or units experimental per tre
... Show MoreZernike Moments has been popularly used in many shape-based image retrieval studies due to its powerful shape representation. However its strength and weaknesses have not been clearly highlighted in the previous studies. Thus, its powerful shape representation could not be fully utilized. In this paper, a method to fully capture the shape representation properties of Zernike Moments is implemented and tested on a single object for binary and grey level images. The proposed method works by determining the boundary of the shape object and then resizing the object shape to the boundary of the image. Three case studies were made. Case 1 is the Zernike Moments implementation on the original shape object image. In Case 2, the centroid of the s
... Show MorePolitical speeches are represented in different shapes as political forum, events or as inaugural speech. This research critically analyzes the inaugural Speech of the President Donald Trump which was delivered on 20th ,January, 2017 from the site<www.cnn.com> retrieved on 10th ,May,2017. The objectives of the study are: First: classifying and discussing well known micro structures (linguistic feature) of the speech, and second: classifying the macro structures i.e. the delivered political inaugural speech in which he includes social structures. To reach to the objectives of the study, the researcher will adopt Norman Fairclough’s three dimensional Analytical Model(
... Show MoreIn the present work a dynamic analysis technique have been developed to investigate and characterize the quantity of elastic module degradation of cracked cantilever plates due to presence of a defect such as surface of internal crack under free vibration. A new generalized technique represents the first step in developing a health monitoring system, the effects of such defects on the modal frequencies has been the main key quantifying the elasticity modulii due to presence any type of un-visible defect. In this paper the finite element method has been used to determine the free vibration characteristics for cracked cantilever plate (internal flaws), this present work achieved by different position of crack. Stiffness re
... Show MoreSolid waste is considered to be one of the rescuers of pollution in case of neglecting conditions and procedures relating to specific processes of laws, systems, and contracts requirements in addition to recommendations of organizations concerned with environment issue. The environments auditing groups of intosai have taking into account the environments control by various conference and recommended that the Board of supreme audit have and environments controlling taking into consideration auditing procedures on waste management ,and also offered on evidences for experiences of members of countries in order to exchange their knowledge's and experiments .the definition of solid waste and their resources ,risks ,man
... Show MoreIn light of the enquiry raised by the Economist Mary Finn in 1995 concluding that high utilization in absorptive capacity of the economy is of inflationary tendency for industrial countries due to the equality between high rates of utilization of absorptive capacity and resource – shortage conditions leading to price inflation, the same idea was used to prove that budget utilization of operational costs and elevating absorptive capacity at the expense of investment budget leads to inflationary tendency that becomes a burden on financing the step- in policy of the Central bank to control prices through its foreign currency reserves at a time when the economy turned into an importer of non- tradable goods and being subject
... Show MoreThis study measures the indicators of social and environmental performance of the contents of the administration's prepared reports on its social and environmental performance by comparing the actual performance with the indicators set within the standards of the Global Reports Initiative (GRI), In preparing this research, the researchers relied on studying the criteria of the Global Reporting Initiative, which aims to achieve a high level of performance disclosure under sustainability, In light of contemporary global trends towards achieving sustainable development and its disclosure and the orientations of economic institutions and units in different countries towards emphasizing the extent of commitment during practicing its a
... Show MoreThis study dealt with the basics of financial inclusion in terms of concept, importance and objectives, The empowerment of women financially and bank ,and then the relationship between financial inclusion and women, and determine the requirements of inclusion Financial resources for women. The analytical descriptive method was used for data, which included reviewing and analyzing information and data in economic and financial literature. The study: reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are Financial inclusion contributes to women's financial and banking support, as there is a positive relationship between financial institutions Banking and women's access to financial and banking services, thus playing a rol
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