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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the demand function for agricultural imports in Iraq for the period (1980-2012) in Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL)
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Abstract:

The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessment of Human Investment Efficiency in the Private University Teaching according to the strategy of Higher Education in Iraq and chosen Colleges))
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Abstract:

the current research aims at analyzing the efficiency of the private university teaching  that recently expanded after 2003 ,;besides , the commitment of the private colleges ,definitely Al-Maamun and Al-Mansour colleges with strategy  of the ministry of higher  education and scientific  research.  This could be done through many indications that measure the efficiency of the  private university teaching , including ( the indication of  the efficiency of   using human resources and efficiency  in using  the materialistic indications.  But the human efficiency in these colleges , including the sample  of the research ( Maamun 

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analysis of the impact of public budget deficit on external debt in lraq with in the framework of joint integration of the period (1990 – 2016 )
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The concept of deficit in public budget becomes a chronic economic phenomenon in most of the world, whether the advanced countries or developing countries. Despite  the difference in the visions of the economic schools to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the opinion that prevailed is the necessity of the state to reduce the public spending which led to a continuous deficits in the public budget which consequently increased the government borrowing ,increase income taxes and wealth, consequently this weakened the in motivation in private investment which contributed to the increase of in factionary stagnation , so that governments have to cover the lack of local funding sources which become difficult to be eq

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating The Performance of Public Companies in The Light of Financial Indicators Case study of the General Company for Drugs and Medical Supplies/ Samarra – Iraq For the period (2014-2019)
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The research aimed to evaluate the financial performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq to know the strengths and weaknesses that affect its performance, as well as to compare its performance in the years between (2017-2019), which are characterized by security stability with its performance in previous years (2014 -2016) which is characterized by security instability, to assess the extent of its ability to achieve growth in performance, by answering the main question, what is the evaluation of the performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq in the light of financial indicators?

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing The Causal Relationship between Investing Government Expenditure non-oil GDP in Iraq For The Period (1990-2011)
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The investment government expenditure is considered the fundamental of enhancing the economic activity as it has become a mean for achieving capital accumulation in all economic  sectors, The Iraqi economy is characterized of being yield unilateral depending petroleum  revenues as an essential  resource of financing government expenditure , as  the contribution of petroleum  sector in GDP is large in proportions to other economic sectors  contribution.

 The relationship between investing government expenditure, and non-oil GDP  is about to be not existent during the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of public expenditure and public revenue on some of the intangible components of social development in Iraq for the period 1985-2008
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تحتل أدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاقية والإيرادية) مكانة مهمة بين أدوات السياسات الاقتصادية الأخرى لما تتمتع به من تأثيرات اقتصادية واجتماعية على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي .

     وفي بحثنا هذا سنركز على الآثار الاجتماعية لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والإيراد العام) لما للتنمية الاجتماعية من أهمية متزايدة في عالمنا اليوم خاصة فيما يتعلق بمقوماتها غير المادية المتمثلة في خدما

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Estimation and Analysis of the Cobb-Duglas Production Function for the Rail Transport Sector in Iraq for the Period 1990-2016 using the ARDL Model)
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Abstract:

Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.

It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of Common Stocks Using The Fama-French Five Factor Model An Applied Study in The Iraq Stock Exchange
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     The process of stocks evaluating considered as a one of challenges for the financial analysis, since the evaluating focuses on define the current value for the cash flows which the shareholders expected to have. Due to the importance of this subject, the current research aims to choose Fama & French five factors Model to evaluate the common stocks to define the Model accuracy in Fama& French for 2014. It has been used factors of volume, book value to market value, Profitability and investment, in addition to Beta coefficient which used in capital assets pricing Model as a scale for Fama & French five factors Model. The research sample included 11 banks listed in Iraq stock market which have me

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building the optimal portfolio for stock using multi-objective genetic algorithm - comparative analytical research in the Iraqi stock market
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Abstract:

The main objective of the research is to build an optimal investment portfolio of stocks’ listed at the Iraqi Stock Exchange after employing the multi-objective genetic algorithm within the period of time between 1/1/2006 and 1/6/2018 in the light of closing prices (43) companies after the completion of their data and met the conditions of the inspection, as the literature review has supported the diagnosis of the knowledge gap and the identification of deficiencies in the level of experimentation was the current direction of research was to reflect the aspects of the unseen and untreated by other researchers in particular, the missing data and non-reversed pieces the reality of trading at the level of compani

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The usage of accounting information according to (Demerjian.et.al) model in order to measure the efficiency of industrial companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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   The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do no

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