يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The ideas and information obtained by the viewer in the cinema have always been the source of the visual image, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the mental image can produce a lot of the information and ideas in the cinematic art and the most important means to achieve this mental image in the film is the eloquent cinematic sound. This research is conducted to show this important and effective contribution of the sound in the production of the mental image. Hence the importance of this research is in that it addresses an important issue which is the eloquent performance of the sound and its role in the production of the mental image inside the space of the feature film. This research concerns those working the field of cinema and
... Show MoreIT has its impact on all aspects of life, including its planning and operations. Based on the assumption that the plan can adapt any technique as an analytical tool within broader dimensions to include society in general and meet the requirements of that society. They have neutral values, meaning and usefulness rather than being adopted as abstract goals or objectives so that the planner or the decision-maker can benefit greatly from them. This information technology is summarized in three main axes: First: Geographic Information Systems. Second: computer modeling. Third: visual simulation and the Internet. The problem of research is that the decision-making environment of the plan is surrounded by uncertain information-planning conditio
... Show MoreIn his life, a person engages in different types of verbal and actual dispositions that result in various effects, some of which are necessary and not valid, such as selling, and some are not necessary for one of the two contracting parties, such as a mortgage or both, such as lending and agency. However, there are some actions that are sometimes necessary and not necessary at other times, such as a gift that indicates in its simplest sense. Owning money for another without compensation, it is one of the doors of benevolence and benevolence, and it is one of the attributes of perfection with which God, may He be glorified and exalted be He, described Himself. - And if this analogy is the difference - and distanced himself from greed, the
... Show MoreThere are certain dates in the history of nations that have their effects on them ,and the 25th of January 2011 is considered one of them in the history of the state of Egypt .Since this date Egypt has passed through many events that led to changes in the political life and its actors . New rolls has arisen for actors that didn't take part in the political life before so clearly ,like the military establishment which started to practice more prominent political roll, till it became the most important actor in the political life of Egypt .This establishment tried to institutionalize its roll through constitutional means ,considering that controlling the authority is the only alternative to safeguard the state which we are trying to study
... Show MoreThe search aims to find out the most important requirements for the success of marshes investment and maximize the expected returns of investment was marked by a problem find aquestion for availability requirements necessary for the success of marshes investment has a research community owners decision in the province Maysan the most important conclusions to the search is that the investment great importance in support of the economy and raising the cultural and social level, there is no investment successful but only with configure the investment environment appropriate economic, social, cultural, political, and security ways. the most important recommendations are working on the provision of the investment environment appropria
... Show MoreAmong the commentators who contributed greatly to explaining the basic rules of civilizations in general and Islamic civilization in particular, Sheikh Muhammad Rashid Rida in his interpretation called (Interpretation of the Wise Qur’an), known as (Al-Manar); Whoever reads the tafsir will notice that it was concerned with explaining the civilized aspects in terms of foundations, methodology, factors of demolition and destruction, and ways to avoid them.
After its 35-year occupation of Japan and the US occupation, Korea has set its sights on a long-term goal of building its country and establishing its foundations, unobtrusive and unchecked by the problems and wars that have stood in the way of its goal, surpassing all odds and achieving the best results. The most powerful Asian and global economies, which gained the respect of the world and its appreciation of the experience has become referred to as boys
إن أهم مايميز النص الأدبي شعراً كان أم نثراً نسيجه اللغوي الجمالي الذي يعبر عن التجارب الحياتية والمشاعر الوجدانية وترجمة ما يجول في الخاطر من أفكار واحاسيس الى صور انفعالية تؤثر في المتلقي. . يحاول هذا البحث الخوض في شعرية الخطاب الروائي في رواية ( النوم في حقل الكرز ) للكاتب العراقي ( أزهر جرجيز ) وهي واحدة من أهم الروايات الحائزة للجائز العالمية ( البوكر ) ودراسة الصورة الشعرية بانماطها المتنوعة التشبيهية وال
... Show MoreThis study has contributed to identify convenience of the land Usifiya of Mahmudiya district baghdad province for the cultivation of sensitive and salt resisting crops and growing pasture .The nine pedons (tracks) of the study have spread over three transects to cover the whole area the north, middle and south .
Depending on Visual Space tupe (TM) for 2007 which is super classified, samples are distributed on all classes of land cover
It is detected the presence of nine series soils namely
MM5- MW96- DM 115 for 1st transect
MF12- DM46 - DM96 for 2nd transect
DM56- DF56 - MW5 for 3rd transect
Soils are classified to the level of sub great group according to (soil Survey Staff) to :
*Typic Torri Fluvents , Typic Haplos
This study investigates the factors that led to the outbreak of protest movements in Sudan, since Sudan’s independence in 1956 until December 2018. The study aims to identify the role of protests in bringing about political and social transformations in Sudan, besides identifying the factors that help in the success or failure of the governments that resulted from those protests, with special emphasis on the challenges of the government of the 2018 revolution. The main results of the study reveal that the December 2018 protests are the largest in term of numbers, and witness huge participation of youth and women, and the slogans raised were national and comprehensive. However, the challenges that the transitional government is going th
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