يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The poster is one of the means which can be communicate with others through it, to transfer ideas that the designer want to focus on, for its importance to accomplish the poster. It’s a visual mean contact aim to submit an idea to the audience to get a clear idea, and that would be through the shapes and subject to submit the idea. Depend on that our goal in this study is to find out, what follows:1-Finding the relationship between the shape and the idea.And the study comes up with several results, like:1-The drawings that contain themes connected with what the designer want to achieve, through the clearness of idea and to make those elements clear by putting more elements to surround the main shape.2-To assure that the strong connecti
... Show More
We refer in this research into linguistic binaries, try rounding of simiaei news analysis. It is known that there are branches of Linguistics called social Linguistics, divided into communicative Linguistics and media. Perhaps the best justification for the inclusion of a new curriculum in media studies is a semiotic analysis of the news. I›ve turned the speech, language and communication studies in relation to different disciplines, many research projects, and returned only old curriculum, speed shift in thought, proportional to the revolution in information and communication technology, for reality imposed on the entire world, researchers are the first affected by this enormous humanitarian Almanza. Alsimiaaeon still shy away from an
... Show More
The research entitled (Image of the Religious Coup in Spain in the Middle Ages) aims to shed light on the prevailing image of the religious coup in Spain during the Middle Aga
يسلط كتابنا الضوء على الآليات التي تم توظيفها في النص الخيالي المتناص بوعي، وكيف قُدِّمَ وشُحنَ بالنص ليجعله فريدًا يتألق بفكرته ويظل مستقلاً بخياله حتى عن الخيال المستدعى في تكوينه، لنستخرج بعض الآليات والوظائف التي قد تشترك بعضها أو جزء منها في تكوين نصوص سردية خيالية أخرى
We, at the end of the discussio about Sincere love, are discussing the
idea o platonic spinning i Dr.Ahmad Muhammed AL_Hofi in His book)
Metaphor has been occupied first place among eloquent methods to build metaphors;
poetry with the latter becomes senseless thing. Metaphor is necessary part of energy that
sustains the poetry. Sentence of metaphor regarded more eloquent than the reality since it
does not conduct directly to the meaning , but rather get to it indirectly. Metaphor is
considered one of the most tools for the poet since it is a means of expression about his
sensation and feelings . Andalus paid concerns over metaphors as that being incited by their
country beauty and nature. The poet might resort to contradiction as to picture contraries
within himself.
Through pictures of contradictions depicted by the poets , it has explained that t
Muslims in Andalusia showed Metzada interested in building their civilization, including the interest in the translation of books in Arabic and Molvat to Latin America and the Castilian language, as well as that of Andalusia is one of the most important scientific centers to transport heritage of Arab and Islamic civilization to Europe, therefore Andalus rulers have tended to translate the Arab Science under the supervision of specialized scientists they know the language and heritage,
The research team seeks to study the phenomena of random housing in Iraqi society in general and Baghdad city in particular by standing on the causes behind this phenomena and its relation with security situation in Baghdad. The researchers adopted a theoretical and practical framework. The main objective is to diagnose the risks caused by the escalation of slums in Baghdad city.
ABSTRACT
The research focuses on the key issue concerning the use of the best ways to test the financial stability in the banking sector, considering that financial stability cannot be achieved unless the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular are able to perform its key role in addressing the economic and social development requirements, under the laws and regulations that control banking sector , as the only way that increases its ability to deal with any risks or negative effects experienced by banks and other financial institutions. The research goal is to evaluate the stability of the banking system in Iraq, through the use of a set of econometrics an
... Show More