يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w
... Show MoreThis article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.
This paper deal with the estimation of the shape parameter (a) of Generalized Exponential (GE) distribution when the scale parameter (l) is known via preliminary test single stage shrinkage estimator (SSSE) when a prior knowledge (a0) a vailable about the shape parameter as initial value due past experiences as well as suitable region (R) for testing this prior knowledge.
The Expression for the Bias, Mean squared error [MSE] and Relative Efficiency [R.Eff(×)] for the proposed estimator are derived. Numerical results about beha
... Show MoreThe transformational leaderships in all organizations consider Motivations policies which is one of the main and basic policies adapted by the successful leaderships in all organizations, in order to be able to achieve essential goals, such as enhancing loyalty of employees towards their organizations and also developing and empowering their capacities and abilities in work, leading to development and increasing productivity and reducing production costs to the minimum, then reaching immense profits and benefits, in addition to development of excellence in the market of competition.
The research was performed in the (General Company of Leather Industries/ in Baghdad ,in alkarada) the study reached
... Show MoreSummary:
The A. H. 7th century had witnessed an obvious development
in the Yemeni scientific process. The most important reason
being the establishment of the Resooliy State (A. H. 626-858)
which had achieved economic and scientific prosperity in
various fields of knowledge. Its sultans had participated in
building schools, purchasing books, summoning of scientists,
presenting gifts, and encouraging scientific journeys in and out
of Yemen. Therefore, studies had thrived and authorship
widened, and there appeared not a few number of scientists..
The nature of this research is that it is a descriptive study that deals with the issue of abrogation in the Noble Qur’an by research and study, as it is one of the issues that have been and are still the subject of
Internal Music is considered as a basis to form music melody that sends rapture and
ecstasy within ones selves since it occurs directly on ears ( hearing) and since it tightens the
meaning to make it penetrating into Heart. It is rhythmic organization occurred inside the text
due to movements of internal sounds since rhythm heavily depends on language and
pronunciation. Repetition adds music melody to the poetic text since it increases music in
poetry. The sounds that reoccurred either be letters or words are no more than confirmation.
Thus , repetition is artistic phenomena most poets resorted to as to diverse his subjects and
metaphors he depicts in his poetry. The repetition has achieved artistic aesthetics , mean
لقد حمَّلت مفردة الإرهاب بكمٍ هائلٍ من المفاهيم والدلالات المُتباينة والمُتناقضة . لذا حاول البحث التأكيد على أهمية وضع تعريفٍ مُحدد لظاهرة الارهاب،ومن ثم توضيح ماهي الاسباب الحقيقية وراء تنامي الارهاب في العراق بعد 2003 ،وما هي المتغيرات الاجتماعية والسياسية التي اسهمت في تصاعد وتيرة العمليات الارهابية في العراق،لاسيما وإن المجتمع العراقي مجتمع متعدد الشرائح الاجتماعية،وبشكلٍ قد يُمَّ
... Show MoreThis research dealt eith the effect of wars experienced bythe Iraqi people in the abroad Iraq women novels between 2003 – 2010, where this issye dominated on Iraqi women novels at this stage until it became the main subject that events revolved aroud in the novels of this stage.
The research also highlighted on the impact of continuous tough wars in human life and psyche, especially in the lives of women – and this is the privacy of feminist novel – where the Iraqi women novels focused on the impact of war on psychological of women and what it caused of misfortunes as women. Iraqi women have suffered from the bitterness of the loss caused by war as – any loss – a natural of her – the loss of father, son, husband, brother a
اني ئاوات صالح عبد الله مواليد 1980 السليمانية حامل شهادة الدكتوراه في جامعة بغداد كلية العلوم الاسلامية قسم الشريعة تخصص الفقه مدرس في جامعة حلبجة