يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The objective of this study is to determine the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq for the period 1990-2014 and to indicate the nature of the technological progress used in it. To achieve this objective we have built an econometric model, by adapting the production function constant elasticity for substitution, using multiple regression, and enforcement, SPSS program, and using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). The results showed that quantitative factors (labour and capital) are the main sources of growth the cement industry in Iraq, and the qualitative factors (technological progress) did not contribute effectively to achieve this growth. And that the production techniques adopted in the cement industry in
... Show MoreObjective: To evaluate the effectiveness of educational program on female students’ knowledge toward premenstrual syndrome.
Methodology: A quasi-experimental design study conducing on (140) student purposely in four secondary schools at Al-sadder city (70) student for study group and (70) for control group. The prevalence of PMS selected through American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) (2015) criterias to select PMS students before program. The education program were set in four steps, the first step (pre-test) is to assess the knowledge , before the implementation of the program, the second step is implementing the program, following two steps post-test I and II between each test two weeks. Validity is determined
The aim of the research is to identify both the re-engineering of management processes and the strategic decision-making process in the research community and determine the nature of the correlation between the two variables and know the relationship between them to achieve the research goal. The researcher used a descriptive and analytical method. The research community consists of a group of professors and staff of the College of Education affiliated to the University of Mustansiriya in Baghdad, which their number were (45), the researcher has distributed the forms to all members of the sample, only (3) forms were excluded for invalidity and thus the number of forms approved in the analysis were (42) forms. The rese
... Show MoreThe interleukin-1 family has multifaceted roles in men٫s reproductive syste. Out of these is interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RN) which exists in men gonads, and in case of infection and inflammatory process, its activity is increased. The current study aims to verify a possible linkage of Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) polymorphism of the IL-1RN gene with human men infertility. The study groups enrolled included 100 infertile men and 100 fertile and healthy men. Their seminal fluids were subjected to analysis. Also peripheral blood samples were collected for the assessment or detection of polymorphic Variable Number Tandem Repeats (VNTR) polymorphism of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene (IL-1RN). Two a
... Show MoreThis research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
... Show MoreAcute myeloid leukemia (AML) represents the most prevalent type of acute leukemia in adults and is responsible for approximately 80% of all cases. The tumor suppressor gene (TP53) is a gene that has been frequently studied in cancer, and mutations in this gene account for about 50% of human cancers. This study aims to evaluate the correlation between two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the gene: rs1042522 and rs1642785, and a group of Iraqi patients suffering from pre-diagnostic acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Blood samples were collected from sixty patients (26 males and 34 females) and sixty controls (26 males and 34 females); these subjects were matched in gender, age, and ethnicity. Genomic DNA has been extracted fro
... Show MoreResearch on the role of organizational change in easing the organizational conflict focuses for being one of the important topics and relatively modern and which have a significant impact on the future of organizations, so this study was to identify the relationship and the impact of organizational change and of deportation (technological, organizational structure, human resources, the change in the task) at the organizational conflict in the Earth company link Iraq, in order to reach the goals of the research, it has been the development of a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of (100) composed employees from managers and heads of departments and the people and staff at the Earth company link Iraq, the study found: the
... Show Moreمـن المعـروف ان طبيعـة العلاقـة مـا بين العـراق والولايـات المتحـدة الامريكيـة تتمتـع بأهميـة بالغــة في الاوســاط السياســية ودوائــر صــنع القـــرار في الولايــات المتحــدة الامريكيــة لمــا لهــا مـــن انعكاسـات علـى مصـالح الاخـيرة في المنطقـة، وفي مقـدمتها أمـدادات الطاقـة، وعلـى الصـعيد نفسـه تنظر القوى السياسية العراقية الى هذه العلاقـة مـن زوايـا مختلفـة ولكنهـا جميعـا تقـع في خانـة الاهميـة
... Show Moreلا يزال المهتمون بلعبة كرة السلة يبحثون عن إيجاد الوسائل الأكثر أهمية وصولاً إلى ما تطمح إليه الدول لتحقيق افضل المستويات في نواحي اللعبة كافة من خلال التغلب على المعوقات التي تحول دون تقدمها إلى الأمام بالدراسة والبحث. ومن هذا المنطلق انصب البحث في ضرورة معالجة القصور الناتج عن عدم وجود المعايير ذات العلاقة باختبارات قدرات اللاعبين وعلى وفق مراكز اللعب ولا سيما المهارية الهجومية مما شكل ذلك ضعفاً في أعداد و
... Show MoreAt the beginning of 1935 theMinistry of (Yasin AL-Hashimi) was formed which was the result of the (Sulayikh)Conference .The new ministys policy was towards the authority of the one party and the exclusivity of power.The policy of (Yasin AL-Hashemi)has faced severe campaigns from the AL-Ekhaa and AL-Ahaly newspapers.The new ministry like its predecessor ministries . When it faces criticism from opposition newspapers .its shutting down newspapers and not accepting requests for them. Some opposition newspapers named Yassin AL-Hashemi (the dictator).Iraqi opposition newspapers have been neglected and deprived of press freedom although they were the main factor in educating the community and representing the public opinion of people . Lt appe
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