يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of endemic diseases in Iraq. It is considered as widely health problem and is an uncontrolled disease. The aim of the study is to identify of Leishmania species that cause skin lesions among patients in Thi-Qar Province, South of Iraq, also to detect some virulence factors of L. tropica. This study includes three local locations, Al-Hussein Teaching, Suq Al-Shyokh General and Al-Shatrah General Hospitals in Province for the period from the beginning of December 2018 to the end of September 2019. The samples were collected from 80 patients suffering from cutaneous leishmaniasis, both genders, different ages, various residence places and single and multiple lesions. Nested-PCR technique was
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مع مطلع القرن الحادي والعشرين فأن الصراع على امدادات المياه الحيوية هو خطر قائم على الدوام في جميع مناطق العالم حيث يتجاوز الطلب على الماء بشكل كبير العرض القائم ولكون اغلب المصادر الرئيسة للمياه وخاصة في المنطقة العربية يشترك فيها بلدان أو أكثر ولان هذه الدول نادرا ما توافق على الاجراءات التفاوضية الخاصة بأقتسام الامداد المتاح من المياه مما يعني زيادة الخلافات على الوصول الى الم
... Show MoreThe researcher tried to show the importance of using environmental taxes as an effective economic factor for reducing contaminators resulting from cars exhausts, and presenting a suggested pattern for environmental taxes as a nucleus and a starting point for a wider implementing of environmental taxes in Iraq. &nbs
... Show Morepublishing has become a large space in the field of interactive education and modern pages have become dedicated to the service of the educational effort in this area as the research in this context of the urgent scientific necessities, especially as we consider in Iraq from the new countries in the exploitation of these new technologies and investment possibilities of the information network And the contents of different in the framework of so-called distance education Here lies the problem of research in the possibility of finding scientific solutions for the design of interactive inter active website for students of the preparatory stage in Iraq and to find out the scientific ways to find des
... Show MoreAt the beginning of the nineties increased responsibility of the auditor to the community as the demand for auditing the environmental performance for the economic units in addition to audit the financial performance. With the aim of preserving the environment and reducing the damagse as aresult of the negative effects of the activities of these units.
The researh deal with two sides the first one identifies the theoretical framework of the concept of environmental audits, requirements, methods, types of procedures, and duties of the auditor in conducting environmental audits. It also deals with the concept of the enviro
... Show MoreThe TV plays an active role in building the general culture of the recipients, which calls for emphasizing its contemporary mission in rebuilding the values that support the development and modernization of diverse societies. Such importance is necessary to explore the challenges facing the cultural invasion, The space opening, which had its cultural returns to the societies, produced a space for alternative values and antagonisms in the cultures and traditions of these societies in the midst of a psychological / social conflict behind a clash with the peculiarities of Muslim societies. Cultural Adtha.
From these points of view, and because the universities are an important stage to announce the demands of the advocates of change and
This Study Sought to Determine The Relationship and Impact Between The Tax Core Capabilities and Tax Settlement The Study Took Place in The Tax Administration, and Based The Problem Was to Two Hypotheses As Solutions Initial Mocked Content to Explain The Relationship Between The Phenomena, and to Test The Validity of Assumptions And Due To The Fact That The General Authority for Taxes is The Body for The Advancement of The Collection Tax In Iraq Random Sample Was Selected to Represent The Population of The Study, Since The Sample Included 22 Individuals Representing 70% of The Total Community to Study, Represented by The Director General, Agents and Directors of Departments and Branch Managers Managers Working in The General Authority fo
... Show MoreThe study aims at analyzing the inconsistent structural and semantic aspects found in the plays of N.A Ostrovsky. The analysis, that includes all the linguistics schools of thoughts in modern Russian language, is performed chronologically to clarify all the ambiguities that the Russian language learners may face. Such difficulties lie in the use of inconsistent aspects with complete declarative sentences and adverbial clauses. Hence, it constructs a new sentence category that consists of secondary clause and its syncretism semantic.
The study illustrates the wide scope of both studying the sentence inconsistent
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The aim of the research to define the concept of moral intelligence and its dimensions and its relationship to some personal characteristics with the internal auditors and identify the importance of the employment of moral intelligence dimensions of (empathy, conscience, self- control, respect, kindness, tolerance, fairness) in the internal audit and the extent of support for the performance of the internal audit process in light of these dimensions. And that by answering the following question : Is there a role for moral intelligence of internal auditors in support the performance of internal audit process ? How are employ these dimensions i
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The current research is attempt to test the reflection of the lean management on the human resources management practices of two of the most important communication companies operating in Iraq (`Zain & Asia cell), The research aims to Determine the extent of adoption of the lean management approach in the two researched companies, as it improving human resource management practices. The research problem represented in the existence of lack of in some aspects of the application the lean management approach in service sector and neglecting the impact of its tools on the human resource management practices. For this purpose three principle research hypotheses has been formulated, first there is a correlation rel
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