يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar
... Show MoreThe study attempts to assess water quality in Abu-Zirig Marsh which used epiphytic Diatom community for assessing water quality. Many of Diatom indices {Trophic diatom index (TDI), Diatom index (DI), Generic diatom index (GDI) have been used to give qualitative information about the status of the freshwater ecosystem(good, moderate, high pollution). In this study, the epiphytic diatoms on both host aquatic plants Phragmites australis and Typha domengensis were collected from Abu-Zirig Marsh within Thi-Qar Province at three sites in Autumn, 2018 and winter, 2019. Epiphytic diatoms were Identified by the preparation of permanent slides method, some species of epiphytic diatom showed dominance such as Cyclotella menegh
... Show MoreThe conservation of natural resources such as water is one of the areas that sustainable agriculture seeks to preserve, rationalize its use and protect it from pollution, because water is a specific factor for agriculture. Despite Iraq's possession of two international rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which pour into the Shatt Al-Arab, it suffers from water shortages in recent times, As a result of several reasons combined, including water policies initiated by the riparian countries to reduce the quantities of water coming from the two rivers to Iraq, led by neighbor Turkey through the construction of dams and reservoirs and the establishment of irrigation projects, as well as climate changes from rising temperatures and lo
... Show MoreThis paper aims to build a modern vision for Islamic banks to ensure sustainability and growth, as well it aims to highlight the positive Iraqi steps in the Islamic banking sector. In order to build this vision, several scientific research approaches were adopted (quantitative, descriptive analytical, descriptive). As for the research community, it was for all the Iraqi private commercial banks, including Islamic banks. The research samples varied according to a diversity of the methods and the data availability. A questionnaire was constructed and conducted, measuring internal and external honesty. 50 questionnaires were distributed to Iraqi academic specialized in Islamic banking. All distributed forms were subject to a thorough analys
... Show MoreThis study aimed at an analytical comparison of the Internal Auditing Standards issued by the Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) and the Guidance Manual for Audit Units issued by the Federal Audit Bureau to show the compatibility and differences between them and the possibility of applying the IIA standards to economic units in Iraq. The guideline was generally not covered by all the internal audit units. There is a lack of keeping pace with changes in internal auditing at the international level and there is a need to strengthen the Guideline on Internal Auditing Standards II A), which is characterized by the preparation of an internal document containing the objectives, powers and responsibilities of the internal audit work as well a
... Show MoreMost countries in the world particularly developing countries, including Iraq, facing extremely dangerous problem with social and political dimensions, which is the emergence of the food crisis problem ,the decrease in domestic food production in Iraq isn't meet the needs of its population food, due to the fact that the agricultural sector suffers from multiple natural ,economic and human problems .It is still below the level required to meet the needs of the population of food ,since food at the forefront of priorities needed by the human . This represents indispensable basic necessity , so the responsibility of its availability permanently in appropriate&nb
... Show MoreA solar updraft tower power plant (solar tower) is a solar thermal power plant that utilizes a combination of solar
air collector and central updraft tube to generate an induced convective flow which drives pressure staged turbines to generate electricity.
This paper presents practical results of a prototype of a solar chimney with thermal mass, where the glass surface is replaced by transparence plastic cover. The study focused on chimney's basements kind effect on collected air temperatures. Three basements were used: concrete, black concrete and black pebbles basements. The study was conducted in Baghdad from August to November 2009.
The results show that the best chimney efficiency attaine
... Show MoreThe present work is qualitative descriptive. It aims to examine the idiosyncratic schema when deciphering the selected violence-based panel from Nasser Ibrahim’s caricatures. The researchers accordingly adopted part of Sharifian’s (2011) Cultural Schema model, particularly that part that is concerned with the examining the micro/idiosyncratic level of understanding. The study has revealed that the participants have not only differed among themselves regarding the way a figure is being denotatively conceptualized, they also highlighted different exact conceptualizations for the same figure, such as: using various adjectives that reflect various levels of intensity, emphasizing the behavioral aspect or the appearance of the figure, ado
... Show MoreThe historical person study as a personality to the AL- Bazargan, one of the important
studies, is the shed light on the character had an effect of the political life in Iraq, an important
historical era involved many events, coincided with a national and historical by this personal
at the events successive positions that stage of the history of Iraq, especially if we know,
strongly his loyalty to the homeland and the earth, and intense hatred for any occupation or
colonization desecrate the land...
This was evident during his participation and his supervisor in 1920 liberal revolution
against the British occupation, and urged the need for adherence to the principles of
independence, and the emphasis on the nation
The research has tackled about an important transformation within the whole region of middle east, especially there were more challenges which revealed under the huge pivotal interests of global powers that ruled the new world order by United states of America ; being very affected over the international and regional relations than any situations appeared previously within political realities. So that, many of variables inside the international scene which happened during of this period of contradicting strategic policies by the process of reforming and restructuring of difficult equations that imposed by international and regional allies and blocs . This article had concentrated over various strategic and political studies which reflect
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