يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Research examines the transmission advantage from Floor Trading (FT) to the Electronic Trading (ET) in the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISE). Testing three hypothesis, first, test the significant different of market depth before and after period of ET used, second, test the significant different of market liquidity also before and after period of ET used. And third test the impact of market depth and liquidity on the performance of ISE. AnEvent Study is depended with 74 observing distributed equality on research period which is extent among 2006 to 2012, Note that the event window is 5-7-2009.The Result of hypothesis testing explore that the all three null main hypothesis is refusing and accept the alternative of it's because the ET
... Show MoreThis research aims at shedding light on the electronic disclosure of the financial information under the condition of the development of this kind of disclosure all over the world , and its effect on the job of auditing and accounting . It also aims to show the extent to which the observers of accounts are aware of their duties towards this kind of disclosure and to test the effect of some environment factors on the level of this awareness.
To achieve the aims of the research has been divided in to four parts. The first one deals with mathadolge of the research. The second parts is devoted to the theoretical aspect of the research referring to the notion of electronical, disclosure its features and effect on the auditing jo
... Show Moreاصبحت الاسواق المالية في الوقت الحاضر من المتطلبات الأساسية لتحقيق التطور الاقتصادي والمالي وتبرز اهمية السوق المالي في خدمة الاقتصاد الوطني العراق حيث ان سوق العراق للأوراق المالية (بالإنجليزية: ISX) هو سوق للأوراق مالية في بغداد وتأسست السوق في
... Show MoreThis researchable paper aims to focus of the role & mechanism of market makers in Iraqi stock market through analyzing its role in other Arabian as well as global stock ones, especially in current period through activate the use of bonds, shares, and trying to create a continued price balance. Then decreasing the opportunity having gaps between highest and lowest level without reasonable causes. In addition trying to deactivate the common decision without supported information. Moreover, this paper aims to explain the rules of increasing liquidity and having balance to lead the market into positive direction. Thus, for achieving the above-mentioned requirements, such conditions should be underlined by market makers as well as t
... Show MoreInternational satellite channels in Arabic are targeted to the region with their news bulletins and their innovative programs, attracting the interest of the Arab viewers in their news articles and programs with new ideas and methods as well as high technology in the production and synthesis of videos. Therefore, they work on framing the above, And the media policy that governs, so focused the problem of the study to try to answer the question of the President is how to frame the international satellite channels in Arabic to the phenomenon of terrorism? What are the aspects that are working to highlight and aspects that try to hide? The study adopted the survey methodology for the main news bulletins in the Russian channel today for the
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to provide an analytical study to promote financial inclusion in Iraq by clarifying the opportunities and challenges of the economic and demographic situation in Iraq, studying the structure of the financial system and introducing non-bank financial institutions operating in Iraq, and using the descriptive approach. Analytical in the study of the phenomenon of research, the research reached a number of conclusions, the most prominent of which were:
- Iraqi society is a young society.
- The majority of the population is 70 percent. They live almost in urban areas.
- The coverage of bank branch networks is concentrated in only four provinces, leaving other provinces outside financial
The research aims to identify the tax policy strategy adopted in Iraq after the change of the tax system in 2003 and beyond, and then make a comparison of the two strategies on corporate data whether they are charged with progressive tax rates and after the change of the system as the tax rates became fixed, and then indicate the changes In the tax proceeds, and knowing the imensions of the approved tax policy, is it a tax reform strategy or a strategy to attract investments.The research started from the problem of exposure of the Iraqi tax system to several changes, as this led to a reflection on the technical organization of taxes, in terms of the tax rate.The descriptive analytical approach was chosen to study the actual reality of th
... Show MoreThe treasury bills one internal government debt instruments in iraq that were used to finance temporary deficits in the government budget, There fore the government resorted to issuing for the purpose of providing liquidity, As well as to invest in productive progects, After that it was financing the budget deficit by the monetary authovity of the central baalpennek [the new cash velease] which led to negative effects on the Iraqi econome, Thus we find that the treasury transfers have formed alarge proportion of the gross domestic government debt to finance the deficit ayear ago 2003. &nbs
... Show MoreIndicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments ability to repay the other hand.
Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments inability to repay the ma
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