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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Industries Based on the Petrochemical Industry in Iraq-Plastics Industry as a Model
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This study came to discuss the subject of industries dependent on petrochemical industries in Iraq (plastic as a model) during the period 2005–2020, and the study concluded that the plastic industries contribute to areas of advancement and progress and opportunities to deal efficiently with the challenges posed by the new variables, the most important of which is the information revolution. communications and trade liberalization, and this is what contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. And because the petrochemical industry in Iraq has an active role in establishing plastic industrial clusters and clusters of micro, small, and medium industries by providing the necessary feedstock for these industries in various fields

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-level model of the factors that affect the escalation of dust in Iraq
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In this research The study of Multi-level  model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level  models and one of  the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly  among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
جغرافية جغرافية العراق في الادبيات الاجنبية والعربية (دراسة تاريخية - تحليلية)
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تناول هذا البحث مراجعة لعدد من الكتب التي ألفت في جغرافية العراق العربية منها والإنكليزية، وتحديداً الكتب في العصر الحديث، إذ توصل البحث الى وجود مجموعة من الكتب التي تناولت مختلف جوانب العراق الطبيعية منها والبشرية، اتضح أن بعض الكتب الجغرافية تناولت الجانب الجغرافي الطبيعي فقط، في حين أن كتب أخرى تناولت الجانب الجغرافي البشري فقط. وأخرى جمعت بين الجغرافية الطبيعية والبشرية للعراق.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
British Military Administration and its attitude of Ethnicities Religious Minorities in Iraq (1914-1920(
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The Interests of British Military in Iraq was not based upon unified vision for the Iraqi identity ,it worked on breaking that identity and deal with the different ethnic and religious minorities and tried to bring it to its side and use it and its figures in the governmental position ,the aim was to make these minorities and here to the Britain to achieve its purposes and strategies in Iraq also vowed to provoked discord social conflicts between the components of Iraqi society.
However , the British military administration depended the portioning and deepen the cracks by depending on ethnic as well as religious minorities to achieve its plans in the future and plays on the string of these minorities under the pretext of defending it

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 05 2019
Journal Name
السياسية والدولية
دور التنشئة الاجتماعية في تعزيز قيم التسامح والتعايش: العراق انموذجا
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أصبحت التنشئة الاجتماعية السليمة من أكثر الأدوات في التصدي لأوبئـة العنف والتطرف ومظاهرها المتفشية بصورة أو بأخرى في مجتمعاتنـا المعاصـرة عامـة باختلاف أيديولوجياته الفكرية ومعتقداته الدينيـة ومسـتوى نموهـا الاقتصـادي، وأصبحت بأشكالها المتنوعة معنية بترسيخ التعاليم الدينيـة السـمحة وغـرس القـيم الديمقراطية السليمة ومبادئ وقيم حقوق الإنسان في شتى مجالات الحياة الإنسانية، وهي أيضا تعد حجر الأساس من اج

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The electronic news bulletin of the ministry of higher education and scientific research: A study in the newspapers of: (AL-Taakhi, AL-Zaman, ALAdala,AL-Sabah and Baghdad) for period from 2nd October 2011 to 1st November 2011
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The research aims to know the reverberation of the the electronica news bulletin of the ministry of higher education and scientific research  in the newspapers of: (AL-Taakhi, AL-Zaman, ALAdala,AL-Sabah and Baghdad) for period from 2nd October 2011 to 1st November 2011 to explain its activity and advantage for the other newspapers and to show the importance which the newspapers showed for the study of the news subject in the bulletin, as well as,to show the proportional differences in which the newspapers interested in the subjects of the published news, and to reach to the results which lead us to good conclusions for the service of decision owner and open new horizons for the researchers to expanding in the s

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Value at risk simulation in a fixed return stock portfolio using the Monte Carlo simulation model The concept of a bond portfolio
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This research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship between social capital and knowledge sharing and their impact on improving the educational service quality: an analytical study of the views of a sample of academic staffs in the government universities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
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Abstract

This study aims to find the relationships between social capital (social network, social trust, shared goals) and knowledge sharing (knowledge Donating, knowledge collecting) as independent variables and their impact on improving the quality of educational services (academic staffs quality, Quality of teaching methods and study curriculums). This research is an important, because it attempts to identify the relationship between social capital and the knowledge sharing and their effect on improving the quality of educational service for universities. The study problem was determined in several questions related to the nature of the correlation relationship - the impact between the different independent variables (

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
New Species of the Sub family Cerambycinae (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) from Iraq: New Species of the Sub family Cerambycinae (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) from Iraq
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A new Species of the Cerambycinae belonging to the genus Hesperophanes was found new to the fauna of Iraq and Science. H. testaceus was studied in details and the male genitalia were illustrated. Type's paratypes and the locality of this newly described Species were mentioned.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY
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 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming m

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