ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The present study is an attempt to throw light on the nature of the US policy regarding the Middle East region as portrayed by AI-Sabah, Al-Mashriq and Tariq Al-Shaab papers over a period of three months from 1st of July to 30th of September 2013.
In writing this study, a number of goals have been set by the researcher. These goals may include but in no way limited to the nature of the US image as carried by the above three papers, the nature of the topics tackled by them and the nature of the Arab countries which received more and extensive coverage than others.
A qualitative research approach is proposed for the study. This approach has allowed the researcher to arrive at definite answers for the possible questions rais
... Show MoreThe social networking sites have become one of the most important promotional instruments for their characteristic of facilitation of communication and the creation of public platform for discussion and formation of new points of view. These sites were used in the political marketing process where politicians use Facebook pages to promote their ideologies and spread their programs for the purpose of an influencing public opinion.
This research deals with the way by which political products are the Iraqi parliament. We adopt the methodology for analyzing the contents of these pages during three months starting from September,12 2016 to March 1, 2017 characterized by a lot of changes and events, in particular the beginning of the war o
This research deals with the role of quantitative (indirect) tools of monetary policy that used by the Central Bank of Iraq in order to control and manage the size of the money supply that intermediate goal through which monetary policy is able to achieve its final goals, foremost among which is to reduce inflation and raise the value of the local currency in front of foreign currency rates. The research is based on a major hypothesis stating that quantitative tools have a direct and strong influence on the money supply, especially under the circumstances of the shift towards a market economy. There has been a branching relationship with this statistically significant relationship between the money supply and the quantitative tools used
... Show MoreThis research cancellations in life insurance policies and their impact on the solvency of the insurance companies (Applied Research in the Iraqi general insurance company), The study was descriptive approach in identifying and addressing variables which consists of {cancellations in life insurance} independent variable, the financial solvency of insurance companies as the dependent variable, and for the purpose of achieving the objectives of the research were formulated one hypothesis has been tested in the Iraqi insurance company, the researcher used the financial statements in the collection data needed for the study and information . The research found a number of conclusions highlighted that inflation, as well as economic variables
... Show Moreلقد توسعت وتطورت انشطة منشآت الاعمال بشكل كبير، وقد تمكنت المحاسبة من التعامل مع هذا التطور من خلال ايجاد المعالجات المحاسبية التي تتوافق مع خصوصية هذه المنشآت وطبيعة انشطتها، وقد ادى مجلس معايير المحاسبة الدولية دوراً مهماً في تحقيق توافق المعالجات المحاسبية في غالبية دول العالم مع المنطق الذي يحمله الفكر المحاسبي.
في الربع الاخير من القرن الماضي ظهرت منشآت ذات خصوصية معينة يس
... Show MoreIn a world of fierce competition companies of different activities strive to strengthen their competitiveness in order to be able to deliver greater value to their customers and gain a distinct sites in competition with other companies in the market at the local and international levels. Every company seeks to focus on one or more of the competitive capabilities in order to turn it into an obvious advantage or a number of competitive advantages to contribute in improving the performance and superiority over its competitors. Therefore, the management of companies no longer need only useful information for the internal aspects of the environment, but also need to include the external environment that includes various and constantly changin
... Show MoreThe research aims to reveal the impact of media policy in Iraqi media outlets on the level of objectivity in these outlets. A study from the communicators’ point of view where the researcher used a survey method on the communicators in media outlets to reveal the extent of media policies knowledge as well as the pressures exerted by this policy on communicators in media outlets. It also reveals the extent of their commitment to objectivity, neutrality in dealing with information and the way used to transfer it.
The research sample included (179) respondents from communicators in a range of Media outlets such as (Press, Radio, and Television), The researcher was careful with the diversity of the sample, and
Increased attention to corporate governance with the increasing need for investors and other parties in the Iraqi market for securities of the information credible and confidence and greater transparency in the disclosure as well as the systems of governance lead to raise the value of the company and that by reducing the cost of capital and reduce the cost of financing, as well as that there are indications modern measurement can be adopted by the Iraqi market for securities for the purpose of evaluating the performance of listed companies and then raise their value.
The research problem is that there is no framework or structure of the legal and local rules for the application of corporate governance in Iraq obliges
... Show MoreThe research seeks to achieve its goal of demonstrating the impact of applying banking governance variables on the financial performance of Islamic banks, and the independent research variables are represented by (X) by (the number of independent members in the board (X1), the number of directors in the board (X2), the number of committees emanating from the board ( X3), the percentage of shares owned by major shareholders in the board (X4), the number of members of the Sharia supervisory board (X5)), and the dependent variable (Y) is represented by (rate of return on assets (Y1), rate of return on equity (Y2)).
The research sample included (4) Islamic banks, namely (Iraqi Islamic Bank, National Islamic Bank, Jihan Islamic Bank,
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple
... Show More