ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The research gained its importance from the importance of technical reserves in the insurance activity and its impact on the result of the activity of insurance companies and their financial position and thus reflected on the insurance prices as the technical reserves are one of the most important and most valuable budget items usually, as well as that the insurance activity has a role in maintaining economic development where some countries develop laws and instructions for the formation of those reserves binding application to insurance companies and the fact that the financial statements in general are of interest to shareholders, banks, the General Tax Authority and other beneficiaries In the insurance activity as policyholders and t
... Show MorePurpose: To determine the impact of service encounter in stimulating voluntary customer behaviors.
- Approach / methodology: It was selected a sample of customers Bank Iraqi Trade (TBI) was (105) individual, using a questionnaire designed in the light of previous studies, was drafted scale and tested in the light of a group of statistical methods developed (reliability coefficient, reliability coefficient composite, convergence). Then test hypotheses through structural equation modeling.
- Results: The behaviors and characteristics of the service provider in effect urged bank customers to perform voluntary extra, as the service environment service encounter
The research aims: to build a measure of the cognitive competence of coaches from the point of view of players of Iraqi Premier League volleyball clubs and extract scores and standard levels for it. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the descriptive method was used using the survey method. As for the research sample, it was chosen intentionally, and was represented by volleyball players for the Premier League 2024-2025. The sample was divided into exploratory, constructive, and standardizing, and starting the construction procedures, which included finding the scientific foundations for the scale, in addition to extracting the modified standard score and levels for the sample of the main experiment for standardization. Amou
... Show Moreى ىلإ يقيبطتلا وبناج يف ثحبلا ىعس دقو ،ةصاخلا ةيراجتلا ؼراصملا يف ؽيقدتلا فاجل ؿيكشت ( تمض ةنابتسا ةرامتسا ـيمصت متخم تاعاطق ىمع ؿماكلاب ايعاجرتسا ـتو فايبتسا ةرامتسا ) 36 ةف فم فإ :ايمىا فاك تاجاتنتسلاا فم ةعومجمل ثحبلا ؿصوت دقو ،ؽيقدتلا فاجل ؿمعب ةمص تاذو تامومعملاب ةقثلا زيزعتو ةيلاملا ريراقتلا ةدوج فامض يف اىرود وى ؽيقدتلا فاجمل ةميملا ـايملا ا يف يرادلإاو يلاملا ءادلأا طبض ةيممع ىمع سكعني هرودب يذلاو
... Show MoreCapital is a property bank is very important, because it is part of the liquidity in the bank, which is a line of defense in the bank and secured against any losses that may be exposed to the banks, and in the case of low value of any item of the assets and the lack of a dedicated absorb the decline, while play a key role to some extent in the financing of fixed assets and in particular the relative importance of fixed assets is relatively small compared to the size of bank assets. &n
... Show MoreAbstract
The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco
... Show MoreThe contemporary art culture is considered a resultant of preceding human civilizations from the early days. At the same time, it got closer to the local privacy, because the contemporary Iraqi potter worked hard to create new art, refusing to base his art on the early works, creating art pieces that contains properties to inherited art and their form significance, in order to create a new identity of his own, bringing an empowerment to his deepened civilization, with the goal to create national identity ideas from one hand, and entity and locality from another. Europeans also followed the direction of our civilization, such as (Picasso, Henry Moore, Barbra Hurth, Brankouzi, Hans Arp,..etc). From this point of view comes the importance o
... Show MoreThis research focuses on the services provided by news websites (IMN, Youm7, Huffington Post Arabic) to its audience of Internet users, as well as materials posted through its pages, trying to monitor and explain them to identify their types & features, and it›s functions, whether informational or non-informational, to know the technical potential of each of the news sites, with the entry of the latest technology information. The research used the analysis method to achieve the research objectives within the period from 1/1 to 31/1/2017. The researchers used the content analysis tool as a research tool to analyze the news sites and to know the services they provide through their pages. The research was divided into three parts, the
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