ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract
The government spending in Iraq and witnessed the changes and developments, especially after 2003, which outweighed consumer spending at the expense of capital expenditure and increased support and diversity of trends towards improving pension conditions for member
... Show MoreAbstract The success of the system of government in any country needs to have a handle on the amount of power efficiency , capacity , capability and wisdom, Iraq has gone through since its inception through several stages of time, namely: The first stage: which ran from August 23, 1921 until July 14, 1958 and was ruling monarchy (rule of the royal family) and punishing power of political elites both of them and works access to power without taking into consideration the laws and principles of the Constitution, and as a result of the inability of civilian powers and political parties access to power to grant that army officers regulatory and disciplinary specifications as well as possessing arms and overthrow the rule of the minority coup
... Show MoreDamascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.
The last four decades have witnessed a number of rapid and successive international changes in terms of future impacts and orientations. International economy has transformed into a competitive small village due to the information technology revolution and the liberation processes and the economic openness that the market witnesses, there became one market and the activists in this international market are not governments only but rather international organizations and huge multinational corporations where each spares no effort to take every opportunity and face challenges within the frame of removing all impediments and release transactions under the auspices of these global developments, the idea of creating Islamic
... Show MoreDamascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.
ABSTRACT
The research aims to study the effect of the commodity dumping phenomenon that Iraq suffered after 2003 on the consumption pattern of individuals, towards the acquisition of non-essential goods (luxury). To achieve our goal we relied on the questionnaire as a main tool for obtaining information related to the research, and it was distributed on a random sample of consumers in the city of Baghdad with 250 questionnaires. The answers of the research sample were analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS). The percentage weights and the factorial analysis method were used also to arrange the variables that affected on changing consumption patterns. The research reached a set of conclusions:
... Show MoreIn the present work, a kinetic study was performed to the extraction of phosphate from Iraqi Akashat phosphate ore using organic acid. Leaching was studied using lactic acid for the separation of calcareous materials (mainly calcite). Reaction conditions were 2% by weight acid concentration and 5ml/gm of acid volume to ore weight ratio. Reaction time was taken in the range 2 to 30 minutes (step 2 minutes) to determine the reaction rate constant k based on the change in calcite concentration. To determine value of activation energy when reaction temperature is varied from 25 to 65 , another investigation was accomplished. Through the kinetic data, it was found that selective leaching was controlled by
... Show MoreSignification with its different aspects constitutes various aesthetic pictures for human and nature creations over different periods of time. It was a focal around which logical thinking loops on the interpretation level of the signification movement according to its structural context expresses its hidden entities with which a human being deals according to two symmetrical levels while interpreting to attain meaning. Sense was the first passing window for the picture of signification which thought deals with. While trying to decode it and because art in general and theatre in particular are considered as the basis of creating signification through its visual and aural elements, so it was necessary to consider one of the elements of cre
... Show MoreThe presence and absence binary is an essential part of and a motivation for the direction vision which depends on the principle that the components of the theatre performance move in contrast with each other; one is directly informative which is the presence relations and the other is structural that is identical to the absence relations. The first is material band visual that evokes the incorporeal mental absent. Hence, the present study(Presence and Absence in the Iraqi Theatre Performance :Summer's Rain Play as an Example) aims at explaining those relations and their transformations between presence and absence in the performance
The approval of the federal general budget in Iraq is one of the most important competencies of the legislative authority , Being one of the important financial and monetary policy instruments on which the state depends for its economic growth , Hence, the obstruction of the approval of the federal budget due to sectarian quotas, the absence of national interest, and the emergence of bargaining processes between political parties belonging to the regions and sectarianism , As well as the absence of economic plans and programs as a result of non-cognition and understanding of the nature of its supposed political system applied in Iraq and the absence of specialists would le
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