ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Generally, there are many problems that people run into; unemployment is one of these common diseases which usually hits the whole communities leaving crucial effects (economic, social, and psychological) that are difficult to handle them. The current study aims to identify the level of emotional disorders among Iraqi unemployed alumni for the academic years (2013-2016). To this end, the researchers have prepared a questionnaire to measure (anxiety, depression, and anger): these criteria distributed over (30) item. As for sample, it limited to (50) male and female student. The findings of study have revealed that the whole sample showed a high level of emotional disorders, and anger disorder showed higher level than the level of (depress
... Show MoreEmissions of particulate matter from nanopapers as well as inks and organic solvents during the printing operationand copying machines constitute a threat to human health, especially with long time exposure in closed working environments. The present study was conducted in some printing houses and copying centers of Baghdad city during February and April .The studyproved the occurrence of an air pollution problem concerning lead and zinc contents in all the study sites. The levels of Pb, Zn and Cu were collected by low volume sampler from the air of the study sites then filter papers digested and determined the heavy metals by flame atomic spectrophotometer. Particulate matter was measured by Aerocet, Microtector meter device was use
... Show Moreيهدف البحث إلى التعرف على The research aims to identify the effect ofاثر التركيب العمري للسكان على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العراق وتحديد الفئات العمرية من أطفال ومنتجين أي من هم في سن العمل والمسنين لأهمية ذلك لإغراض التخطيط الاقتصادي.إنeffectofeee age structure of the population on GDP in Iraq and determine the age groups of children and any of the producers wham are of working age and the elderly of the importance for the purposes of economic planning. نسبة الفئة العمرية Proportion of the age group (00- -4 4سنوات اقتربت من
... Show Morethis research paper aims at measuring and analyzing the influence of the stock exchange on the economic development in the Kingdom. This is done through comparing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a changeable factor affiliated with some independent variables in the KSA stock exchange. These variables are (All Share Index {TASI}, Market Value, Trade Volume Index, number of companies and number of shares). The study covers the period from 2003 to 2017 and adapts the measuring method in analyzing this relation using the Multiple Linear Regression (Stepwise) and (SPSS). The study affirmed the validity of the
... Show MoreThe Financial authority is considered as one of the most of benefited parts from financial statements which depends on it in process of accounting in taxes as basis to determine The Tax Base , but no confidence from financial authority part in objectivity of income financial information in them for many of limited companies led to no dependence on them to specify taxation contain & dependence on yearly regulations that issued them. To enhance the confidence of financial authority to these lists must meet its requirements, because the menus Fulfill the requirements of the financial authority increases the confidence in these statements and therefore reliable in determining the tax base. So this research aims to speci
... Show Moreتشكل سوق الاوراق المالية ركناً اساسياً من اركان هيكل النظام التمويلي في النظم الاقتصادية المعاصرة، لما تقوم به هذه الاسواق من دور مهم في حشد المدخرات المحلية وتوجيهها في قنوات استثمارية تعمل على دعم الاقتصاد القومي وتزيد من معدلات الرفاهية الاقتصادية لافراده، فضلاً عن كونها مرأة للوضع الاقتصادي العام في البلاد.
ونتيجة للروابط القوية بين سوق الاوراق المالية والاقتصاد، عُدّ استقرار ونمو
... Show MoreThe research aims to evaluate Evaluation of the investments Iraqi fund for External development through the application of financial tools to a number of companies of the Iraqi Fund for External Development, and from the point of view to achieve the best returns from investment and the feasibility of the investments of the Iraqi Fund for External Development and the research community represents the Iraqi Fund for External Development and the amount of (28) A company, while the research sample is (4) companies (the Arab Petroleum Transportation Services Company, the Arab Iraqi Company for Livestock Development, the Bauhaus Company for prefabricated buildings and mineral installations, the Arab Fisheries Company) that were chosen
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the role of radio advertising in promoting purchasing decisions of Iraqi audiences, especially that the placement of the announcement through the Iraqi radio stations dealt with a little of Iraqi researchers, and the goal of the research to know the extent of public exposure to the radio advertising through Iraqi radio and patterns of exposure,disclosure of the reasons for public hearing of the radio advertisement, identifying the most important factors influencing the decision to buy in the radio advertisement, this research is descriptive in terms of type as the researcher used the survey method,questionnaire and scale for data and information collection, the sample was selected according to the purp
... Show MoreThe research aims to demonstrate the impact of the acceptable solvency of the National Insurance Company on the investment activity in it, as the research assumes the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the acceptable solvency variable and the investment variable, and the researcher took the National Insurance Company as a place to conduct the research, as it is the first insurance company Watania was established in the fifties of the last century, and it has a long history in the practice of investment activity, and the company’s financial statements for the period from (2010-2019) were relied on, and the annual reports issued by the company as well as records are tools for gathering information, and
... Show MorePing message focused on highlighting the fact commodity trading in Iraq, and increased exposure to world merchandise trade imbalance, which dominate Iraq's foreign trade major commodity is oil, and therefore the inability of Iraq to control financial revenue as a result of the fluctuations in the international market, the shortage of commodity products will lead inevitably to the weakness in the ability of the local market to meet the internal demand and due to the lack of flexible production machine For agricultural, industrial and economic sectors are responding to changes in the domestic or external demand which will open the door to merchandise imports to invade these markets, since the adoption of the Iraq oil exports,
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