ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The public budget in Iraq depends on a number of legislations across its fourth stages, starting from preparation to implementation and control; one of these legislations is the amended law of financial management and public Debt. No. (95) In 2004. Accordingly, the public budget cycle faces various failures, some of them resulted from the shortcomings in the legislation depended that effect on the public budget in a way or another; whereas the other failure resulted from no applying the legislation that adversely effect on the public budgeting stages that call for studying them and paying the attention toward them to present the suggestions that contribute in handling and developing public budgetin
... Show MoreThe effective application of the method of measuring and evaluating performance according to the Balanced Scorecard the need for an information system a comprehensive and integrated for internal and external environment, Which requires the need to develop accounting information system in general and cost management information systems to suit the particular requirements of the environment in terms of the development of modern methods of measurement to include the use of some methods that have proven effective in measuring and evaluating performance.
The research problem in need of management to develop methods of measuring and evaluating performance through the use of both financial measures and non
... Show MoreCapital Adequacy is on of the most importance of financial position element because its role is enhance against varions risks of Banking procese . Which this risks is a result of the nature of its operations , investment , Financing tools in addition , in order to Faced any clients withdraws un expected .
So This study aim to measure The Capital Adequacy according to basel II and explin the different risk in the Islamic Bank as aresult to nature and different investment and financing tools as participation speculation , murabah and natures of its assets and liabilities related to commercial banks .
Find out we concludes that the Islamic Banks needs to increase the ca
... Show MoreThis research delves into the role of satirical television programs in shaping the image of Iraqi politicians. The research problem is summarized in the main question: How does satire featured in television programs influence the portrayal of Iraqi politicians? This research adopts a descriptive approach and employs a survey methodology. The primary data collection tool is a questionnaire, complemented by observation and measurement techniques. The study draws upon the framework of cultural cultivation theory as a guiding theoretical foundation. A total of 430 questionnaires were disseminated among respondents who regularly watch satirical programs, selected through a multi-stage random sampling procedure.
Th
The research aims at identify the role of the electronic trading system used in the Iraq stock exchange to promote trading activity for the stocks of listed companies in this market.
To prove the hypothesis of research, it was selected the main trading indicators for the market to be a main field in test the research hypothesis.it was selected as the period of time for (9)years span between the years (2005-2013) because they represent the first two articles of equal time periods represent aperiod that preceded the introduction of electronic trading system while the second represents the period of time that followed
The research found a number of conclusions but the mo
... Show MoreThis study aimed to determine obesity level of some population in Baghdad by using Bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) and compared with anthropometric measurements such as body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Statistical analysis results of linear correlation coefficients for obesity indicators showed that BIA correlation 0.92 was most significant and reliable for obesity measurement.
Results of BIA method for age group 20-29 years showed that 44.4% of females were healthy body while 37.8% of males suffer from increased body fat. Results of age group 30-39 year showed that 32.6 of females were in healthy body and 42% of males were obese. In case age group 40-4
... Show MoreMedia and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo
... Show MoreOne of the most frightening to children ages pre-school entry , Are those concerns about natural phenomena such as (The darkness, the sound of thunder, lightning and light, and rainfall, and storms) These natural phenomena are not familiar to the child , It may have a surprise when he/ she sees , And others intimidated , The affects of panic and fears that may lead him some psychological injury symptoms.
The fear of the dark, of the most common concerns associated with the child in his daily life , As the children's fear of the dark is reasonably fear that makes him a natural to live in the unknown , We can not identify what around him and is afraid of something collision, Or injury from somet
... Show MoreThe history of the Olympic movement in Iraq is a rich history that reflects the interest of Iraqi governments and society in sports, the social and economic conditions, and international relations, and highlights the intersection of sports and politics and the impact of global events on local sports development. Therefore, providing a valuable insight into the reality of the participation and results achieved by Iraq in the Olympic Games for the period under study helps in giving a broader understanding of Iraq’s position in the global sports community. The research aims to document the important events in the development of the Olympic movement in Iraq for the period (1929-2000) and explore the formation and development of the Iraqi Olym
... Show MorePraise be to God, who created people from one soul, and made her husband, and prayers and peace be upon His Messenger, Mercy given and the grace given, and on a machine and companions pure. Divorce cases have increased in recent years in a worrying manner, especially since divorce has unforeseen consequences at the individual and social levels. The source of concern stems from the fact that the cohesion and integrity of society starts from a family as it is the cornerstone of the social structure, which is the foundation upon which the large society is based. Marital life may suffer from problems and obstacles that are difficult to solve, so the man presents the divorce of his wife and that the phenomenon of divorce is not a result of it, b
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