ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
على الرغم من التقدم العلمي والتكنولوجي للمعلومات فما زالت الذاكرة تقوم بالدور الاساس بغض النظر عن الامكانيات العلمية في العصر الحديث من حيث ان الكثير من مفرادات الثقافة الانسانية ينقل من جيل الى اخر بواستطتها, ومن الصعب تصور حياة نفسية مقصورة على الحافز فقط, اننا لو اقتصرنا على الحافز لكان التفكير غير ممكن لان الذاكرة هي التي تصل الحافز بالماضي وابسط صورها هي الذاكرة الاولية . فلولا الذاكرة لما تكونت ال
... Show MoreThe research seeks to measure stigma on the children of kindergarten and get to know the differences between males and females and between kindergarten and preschool in social fear. Has been verified by the researcher was true scale of social fear after the drafting of paragraphs (43) items, and display it on a group of experts , has proven its validity after some amendments , bringing the number of paragraphs in its final form (29) items . was statistical analysis of the paragraphs of the brokered power-discriminatory , it is clear that all paragraphs distinct and statistically significant, as well as to find a relationship degree of para-class items consistency . was to ensure the stability of the scale in a re-test , as the stability
... Show MoreThe aimes of this study is to investigate Optimism and Pessimism among university undergraduates including the first and fourth stage students ,the sample of this stoudy contained (326) students ,(166) male and (160) female, The researcher adopted a scale of Dember et al (1889) translated and adjusted to arabic version by Al-Dosoke (2001). The results have shown that students have optimism including the first and fourth stage and no significant difference between the students as far as ncluding the first and fourth study stage and gender, Implications of the results and recommendations for further research are discussed.
Clothes are considered a means of aesthetic and artistic expression that help to hide the flaws of the body and highlight its merits , it has importance in people's lives as it reflects the individual's idea of himself and his personality. Whereas the appreciation in clothing is a reflection of a person's sense of artistic components and the application of this sense to the clothes of his choice. Regarding the differences in clothing tastes by the university students according to the following variables (gender, specialization, stage of study, age, monthly income), the current research is considered quantitative descriptive research that is concerned with studying a phenomenon that exists in reality, measuring it
... Show MoreThe research aims to delve into the nature of international financial reporting standards and the unified accounting system adopted in the Iraqi environment and financial ratios in the theoretical side. In the practical aspect, the results of some financial ratios of Basrah Gas Company were compared with the adoption of the financial statements prepared on the basis of the consolidated accounting system with the prepared financial statements Based on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research has reached a number of conclusions, including a difference in the accounting rules and practices between IFRS and the consolidated accounting system in force in Iraq. The adoption of IFRS has led to a decrease in profitabi
... Show MoreThe research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is determining the extent to which the auditors of the research sample in the Federal Bureau of Financial Supervision adhere to the requirements of the quality control system according to the Iraqi Audit Manual No. The federal financial / research sample with the quality control system according to the Iraqi audit guide No. 7), and the researcher seeks to test the main research hypothesis and sub-hypotheses, and to achieve this, a questionnaire was designed by (Google Form) and distributed electronically to the elements of the research sample, Through the statistical package program (SPSS), the results of the questionnaire were analysed. In light of the applied
... Show MoreThese deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .
The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank. &nbs
... Show MoreThe worsening of environmental problems has led to them being addressed by many entities, the most important of which are the top regulators. Federal Board of supreme audit Office is one of the most important regulators in Iraq. The problem of the research was the fundamental question of the extent to which the Federal Financial Supervisory Office was committed to implementing and exercising environmental control over the audited ones. The refore, the research was based on the main objective of questioning the role of the Federal Financial Supervisory Office in the exercise of environmental control and the compliance of those under its control, by identifying the antosai standards for environmental control, particularly the stand
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to identify the rate of return of the stock through the financial information disclosed by the financial statements of companies both services and insurance included in Iraqi market for securities . The study used a descriptive statistical methods and the correlation matrix for the independent factors , in addition to a regression model for data analysis and hypothesis . Model included a number of independent variables , which was measured in the size of company (sales or revenue) , and the leverage , in addition to the structure of assets and the book value of owners' equity in the company , as well as the general price index .Based on the data of (11)companies and for three years, showed the result
... Show MoreThe research tagged (the image of the soldier in contemporary Iraqi painting) dealt with the concept of the image as one of the basic concepts in the creative achievement, whether it is in the field of art, literature or beauty. Therefore, the concept of the image expanded to express the various aspects of human creativity, including the field of painting. To know the image of the soldier in contemporary Iraqi painting, the research included four chapters. The first chapter focused on the methodological framework of the research, while the second chapter included three sections. The first topic dealt with the philosophical and artistic concept of the image. The second topic was concerned with the representations of the soldier's image in
... Show More