The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
الانهار اصبحت مشبعة بثاني اوكسيد الكربون بشكل عالي وبذلك فهي تلعب دور مهم في كميات الكربون العالمية. لزيادة فهمنا حول مصادر الكربون المتوفرة في النظم البيئية النهرية، تم اجراء هذه الدراسة حول تأثير الكربون العضوي المذاب والحرارة (العوامل الرئيسية لتغير المناخ) كمحركات رئيسية لوفرة ثاني اوكسيد الكربون في الانهار. تم جمع العينات من خمسة واربعون موقع في ثلاثة اجزاء رئيسية لنهر دجلة داخل مدينة بغداد خلال فص
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Abstract
The analysis of Least Squares: LS is often unsuccessful in the case of outliers in the studied phenomena. OLS will lose their properties and then lose the property of Beast Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE), because of the Outliers have a bad effect on the phenomenon. To address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so that they are not easily affected by outliers. These methods are characterized by robustness or (resistance). The Least Trimmed Squares: LTS method was therefore a good alternative to achieving more feasible results and optimization. However, it is possible to assume weights that take into consideration the location of the outliers in the data and det
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Experimental work has been performed on three capillary tubes of different lengths and diameters using R-12 and R-134a. The test also studies the effect of discharge and speed of evaporator fan. The results clearly showed that refrigerant type and discharge significantly influence the temperature drop across the capillary tube. While the speed of evaporator fan has small effect. Experimental results showed that the temperature gradient for the two refrigerants are the same, but after approximatly one meter the temperature gradient of R-134a is steeper than R-12.
. In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction a
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This study was conducted to examine the discharge capacity of the reach of the Tigris River between Kut and Amarah Barrages of 250km in length. The examination includes simulation the current capacity of the reach by using HEC-RAS model. 247cross sections surveyed in 2012 were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated using observed discharges of 533, 800, 1025 and 3000m3/s discharged at Kut Barrage during 2013, 1995, 1995 and 1988, respectively, and its related water level at three gauge stations located along the reach. The result of calibration process indicated that the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 0.095 can be obtained when using Manning’s n coefficient of 0.026, 0.03 for th
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This study aims to predict the organic pollution produced from the presence of some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and determination it's concentrations (µg/L , ppb) in Tigris river water by a collection twenty-seven water samples from a selected three stations with nine sampling sites and three depths of water (5 cm , 2 m and 4 m) each site for 4.6 km distance of a geographic studied area which is located between the ( Al-Senak and AL-Sarrafiah bridges ) at Baghdad city – Iraq on May, 2012. The geographic location was determined with a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) software program. The concentrations of fourteen components (PAHs) were performed using the reverse phase
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Knowledge of permeability, which is the ability of rocks to transmit the fluid, is important for understanding the flow mechanisms in oil and gas reservoirs.
Permeability is best measured in the laboratory on cored rock taken from the reservoir. Coring is expensive and time-consuming in comparison to the electronic survey techniques most commonly used to gain information about permeability.
Yamama formation was chosen, to predict the permeability by using FZI method. Yamama Formation is the main lower cretaceous carbonate reservoir in southern of Iraq. This formation is made up mainly of limestone. Yamama formation was deposited on a gradually rising basin floor. The digenesis of Yamama sediments is very important due to its direct
Sewer sediment deposition is an important aspect as it relates to several operational and environmental problems. It concerns municipalities as it affects the sewer system and contributes to sewer failure which has a catastrophic effect if happened in trunks or interceptors. Sewer rehabilitation is a costly process and complex in terms of choosing the method of rehabilitation and individual sewers to be rehabilitated. For such a complex process, inspection techniques assist in the decision-making process; though, it may add to the total expenditure of the project as it requires special tools and trained personnel. For developing countries, Inspection could prohibit the rehabilitation proceeds. In this study, the researchers propos
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In this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with sixteen physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Tigris River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from eight stations in Baghdad city during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The sixteen physicochemical parameters included: Turbidity,
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index
(WQI) with sixteen physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Tigris River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from eight stations in Baghdad city during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The sixteen physicochemical parameters included: Turbidity, A
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